Circa Survivor 2024 – Week 3: Bloodbaths & Gained Equity

By John Alesia

As we enter the third week of the 2024 NFL season, the landscape of survivor pools has dramatically shifted. Week 2 proved to be a bloodbath.  The Baltimore Ravens, the most popular pick of the week, were handed a surprising loss by the Las Vegas Raiders, eliminating 26.5% of the remaining 8,675 entries. This loss, combined with other upsets like the Lions, Eagles, Jaguars, Cowboys, and Colts, resulted in a total of 4,825 entries being knocked out, including 22 entries that failed to submit a pick. The Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers emerged as the heroes of the week, helping 3,325 Circa survivors advance to Week 3.

In our previous article, we highlighted Houston as a strong choice, considering their high probability of winning and limited future value. However, more entries than anticipated opted for the Texans, partly due to Circa’s sharper players and the Chargers’ line dropping as the week progressed. For those still in the running, the feeling of relief and accomplishment is palpable, but it’s essential to remember that the journey is far from over. After two brutal weeks, can we expect some more predictable outcomes in the near future?

Currently, each entry in Circa holds an implied equity value of $3,679, with some entries naturally being more valuable than others based on the teams selected. In your home league, if you’re fortunate enough to have multiple entries remaining, it’s crucial to be aware of your equity position. A general rule of thumb is to take on more risk when you have less equity. For example, if you started with 100 entries in a pool of 10,000 and have lost 90% of your entries, down to just 10, while the pool as a whole has lost 70% of its entries, you should be looking to take more aggressive stances.  Risk can manifest in various ways, such as choosing a less popular team with a lower chance of winning or going all-in on a single team, which, if they win, could significantly boost your equity.

On the flip side, if you find yourself in that same hypothetical pool with 50% of your entries left, you may want to get a bit more conservative while others take the risk. By being more selective with your picks, you can minimize the risk of elimination and set yourself up for long-term success.  But as we have seen, taking the “safe” pick is not always very safe.

Let’s take a look at week 3 in Survivor

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This is new for 2024. The calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

As we dive into Week 3, we turn to our trusty spreadsheet, setting the future value to 0 a value we like to look at for small pools. This approach reveals the teams with the highest win percentages as the top options. Currently, the Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers stand out as the best choices. Notably, neither of these teams is likely to be the most popular pick in pools, which could work to your advantage. If you’re in a smaller pool, down to around 30 entries or fewer, it might be wise to consider one of these teams, as others will likely flock to Las Vegas and Tampa Bay, which lack future value. Cincinnati may be the preferred choice as San Francisco can be taken in one of the next two weeks.   Cincinnati can be taken next week at home for Denver, but there are other options next week.  You will want to study the upcoming three weeks before deciding what you are most comfortable with.

The threshold column in my sheet provides valuable insights. For Tampa Bay, the threshold stands at 66.4%. This means that if you’re considering fading Tampa, you should do so with any team that has a win percentage of 66.4% or higher. For Las Vegas, that number is 62.9%. Using any of the top teams this week will easily surpass these thresholds. Of course these percentages do not take future value into account but you may not care in a small pool.  As the week progresses, keep a close eye on the lines and target the team with the best chance to win based on the odds. If you have the Sharp app, you can monitor the lines at all major books. I recommend filtering for Pinnacle, widely regarded as one of the sharpest books. By looking at the implied probability on the vigless line (taking the midpoint), you can determine the win percentage for each team.

Shifting our focus to pools with a few more entries remaining, we adjust our spreadsheet to account for 25% future value. Under this scenario, Cincinnati remains the top pick, but Tampa Bay now finds itself on equal footing. With Tampa’s lack of future value, with only 25% weighting they are still a viable option. Opportunities to take Tampa are scarce, with the most promising chance being Week 17 at home against Carolina. While Week 13 on the road in Carolina is another possibility, it’s still a ways off, and in a mid-size pool, the competition may not last that long. Las Vegas, another popular pick this week is the 4th choice due to its limited future value. In a medium-sized pool, I recommend opting for Tampa or one of the heavier favorites like Cincinnati or San Francisco to gain leverage on the field with a team that is more likely to win their game based on the lines.

Finally, let’s examine the sheet with 100% future value taken into account. This is the number I scrutinize closely before making my Circa pick. Under this scenario, the two teams being taken the most in pools, Tampa Bay and Las Vegas, emerge as the top two teams to consider. This makes sense, given their limited future value. This presents us with a dilemma: by fading both of these teams, we stand to gain significant leverage on the field, but we also sacrifice potentially losing a team we might want to take in the future. San Francisco is one of those teams with many opportunities to take, including the next couple of weeks at home against New England and then against Arizona. Cincinnati is at Carolina next week, at the Giants in week 6, and home for Las Vegas in week 9.  Seattle, a team not many are looking to take, is in a similar position as Tampa and Las Vegas, lacking future value. The problem is that many people still alive in pools have already taken them. This could be a great leverage play in large pools if you haven’t. Keep a close eye on the line; if it moves up past where the Las Vegas line is or if Las Vegas moves lower, this becomes a stronger play. My lean right now is Tampa, despite their high pick percentage. That may change as the week goes on.  I’ll keep a close eye on the Survivor Grid and line movements before making my pick in Circa this week.

Ultimately, you have to decide how you will play your pool.  Hopefully, you will be around for many weeks with me as we try and survive!

-John