Holiday Season Chop? By John Alesia

What a sweat Week 14 turned out to be! The Eagles, who were the clear-cut choice for most survivors, nearly got ambushed by Carolina. The Panthers seem to have mastered the art of giving survivor pool players heart attacks without actually delivering the knockout blow against these heavy favorites. In the Circa pool, we’re down to 51 entries still eyeing that $14.2M prize after losing just one brave soul who rolled the dice with Tennessee. At this rate, we might be looking at a holiday season chop – barring some serious late-season chaos.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This is new for 2024. The calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

The future value on my spreadsheet is losing its value at this point in the season. With just a few weeks left, it’s less about future value and more about plotting your optimal path through Week 18. And speaking of Week 18 – consider that week radioactive when planning ahead. Those seemingly juicy matchups could turn toxic real quick when teams start resting starters for the playoffs.

What still matters? The threshold column. This week, Baltimore stands out as the biggest favorite we’ve seen all season, even on the road against a Giants team that’s totally lost right now. Let’s be crystal clear: unless 75% of your pool is on Baltimore AND you have access to Washington or Minnesota, trying to fade the Ravens is overthinking it. If you’ve got Baltimore in your back pocket, this is your week to use them.

But here’s the reality – many of you burned Baltimore weeks ago. The good news? You’ve got options, even if they’re closer than you’d like. Washington would be a prime leverage play if you’ve still got them available (most don’t), as they’re currently the best non-Baltimore option out there.

The real decision for most survivors this week comes down to Minnesota versus Arizona. The betting markets currently favor Minnesota, and as always, I’m inclined to follow the money. There’s another angle here too – Minnesota offers better hedging opportunities, and I’m a big fan of taking the latest possible game for maximum information advantage.

For those in head-to-head battles, the strategy remains straightforward: take the biggest favorite each week unless you’ve got a clear advantage brewing in a future week. Here’s an example: if you’re holding Minnesota while your opponent’s best option is Arizona, you’d typically want to play that advantage – unless you’ve got an even bigger edge coming up (like having Green Bay next week while they’re stuck with Cincinnati). Just remember, you can’t bank on knowing your opponent’s moves, so tread carefully.

Let’s talk about larger pool strategy, where we usually look for those sneaky contrarian plays. But this week? I’m pumping the brakes on getting too cute. While your specific situation might vary, this is shaping up to be a week where you simply want to roll with your highest win probability team available.

There is one interesting wrinkle to consider: Cincinnati. The Bengals present an interesting puzzle because they’re viable both this week and next. If you’ve got them in your arsenal, you’ll want to do some quick math – compare your second-best option this week against your second-best option next week. That comparison should drive your decision on when to deploy Cincinnati.

But outside of that Bengals scenario, this isn’t the week to try threading the needle with a contrarian play. Sometimes the obvious play is the right play, even in a larger pool.

Good luck this week, and hopefully, we will be together again in week 16!

-John