Surprisingly Calm… By John Alesia

Two weeks into the NFL season, and the survivor pool landscape remains surprisingly calm—no major upsets have shaken the field, a stark contrast to the chaos of last year. But with Week 3 on the horizon, could the tide be turning?

For those in Circa’s unique format, where Thanksgiving and Christmas games stand alone, strategic planning is already in play. Last week, Baltimore was a popular pick across most pools, but many Circa players opted to save the Ravens for their Thanksgiving matchup against Cincinnati. That decision looks even smarter now, with Joe Burrow’s injury casting doubt on the Bengals’ prospects. Those who advanced without using Baltimore not only kept their entry alive but also preserved a powerhouse for later, while burning a less critical team. With Thanksgiving still weeks away, we’ll keep monitoring that week for Circa players.

In the Circa pool, 1,180 entries fell last week, leaving 16,965 still standing. If the prize pool were split evenly today, each entry would be worth $1,103—and those with Baltimore still in their pocket might feel their entry’s value is a touch higher.

Week 3 brings a fresh slate of options, and it’s time to dive into the matchups. Let’s break it down.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line using sharp.app.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Week 3 Strategy for Smaller Pools

In smaller survivor pools, leaning toward the chalk, those safer high-probability picks, is often the smart move. This week, Buffalo emerges as the standout favorite, boasting a win probability akin to Baltimore’s last week. However, I’m less inclined to go all-in on the Bills compared to the Ravens, thanks to a stronger slate of alternatives this time around. Plus, Buffalo is poised to be an even bigger favorite next week, adding a layer of complexity.

While future value isn’t a primary concern in small pools, peeking two or three weeks ahead helps avoid painting ourselves into a corner. Looking at Week 4, Buffalo is projected as a 14-point favorite at home against New Orleans. Yet, Detroit hosting Cleveland offers another enticing option.  Their lack of use so far will make them a popular choice. With Detroit also set to be a hefty favorite in Week 4, picking Buffalo now and saving Detroit for next week is optimal, but for just those 2 weeks. The real crossroads hits in Week 5. If you’ve stuck with the chalk, Baltimore last week, Buffalo this week, and Detroit in Week 4, your Week 5 choices include Minnesota at Cleveland, Arizona (if unused from Week 1) hosting Tennessee, Philadelphia at home against Denver, Kansas City at Jacksonville.  You’re potentially used teams, Buffalo hosting New England, and Baltimore hosting Cleveland will be big favorites but not much more than those other options. 

With solid choices on the table, I recommend sketching out the next three weeks to find the path that feels most comfortable for your pool. Ultimately it comes down to if you like Seattle or Green Bay this week more than you like one of those week 5 matchups.  Whichever you like best will be the guide to how you play it this week.

Week 3 Strategy for Moderate-Sized Pools

In moderate sized pools future value (FV) becomes a bigger consideration. Approximately 0.2% of pool participants will make it through Week 18.  That’s 10 people expected to go perfect through 18 weeks. 

Many of the insights from the smaller pool analysis still apply, but the focus shifts slightly. Adjusting FV% to 50% in my spreadsheet, Seattle stands out as the top pick. In pools of this size, I’m leaning toward Seattle myself. With an FV of 17, they’re unlikely to be favored in many remaining games, making this a strategic use-now pick. The Saints have fought hard in their losses this season, yet they remain one of the league’s weaker teams, boosting Seattle’s appeal. Survivorgrid.com shows 19% of participants on Seattle, though I’d expect Circa’s percentage to be higher.

Tampa Bay ranks as the third option on the spreadsheet, facing the Jets at home. However, with a win probability about 3.5% lower and higher future value, they’re less enticing this week compared to Seattle.

Similar to what I wrote about small pools, we need to look 2-3 weeks out in pools of this size as well.  Seattle does make our decisions about Weeks 4 and 5 a little easier.

Week 3 Strategy for Large Pools

In large pools, where we anticipate many entries surviving to Week 18, taking calculated risks to build equity becomes essential. The aim is to position ourselves for hedging or, in the case of Circa and similar pools, potentially selling equity on Survivor Sweat to manage the high variance inherent in survivor pools.

Seattle remains a top pick due to its high win probability and near-zero future value, making it a prime use-now option. However, a slightly riskier choice emerges with Indianapolis, ranked second on the spreadsheet despite a lower win probability. The Colts’ offense has shone brightly over the first two weeks, bolstered by a fortunate leverage penalty call that salvaged a game-winning field goal attempt after a failed try. This week, they face a struggling Tennessee team, offering a chance to sneak in a less popular pick with a 65% win probability and minimal future appeal. Beyond a suspect Week 8 home game against Arizona, their only notable future spot to target is a rematch with Tennessee at home. In large pools, standing out with unique picks when it makes sense is key, Indianapolis could be that bold move. If chaos strikes the top of the pool this week, this play might skyrocket your equity without burning a premium team.

Hit me up on X @statsational with any pool-specific questions, and good luck—I hope to see you back next week!