Drawing The Spotlight By John Alesia

Week 3 brought some fireworks to NFL survivor pools, with Green Bay and Atlanta delivering the biggest blows, accounting for 18% of the 19% total eliminations in the Circa pool. The Grandissimo pool, where players lean heavily on chalk picks due to its smaller field, saw fewer Atlanta selections. With only 58 entries left chasing the $6.9 million prize, every decision now carries massive weight.

As we turn to Week 4, a few heavy favorites are drawing the spotlight. But are they the smartest choices for your pool’s format? Let’s dive into the Week 4 landscape and find out.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line using sharp.app.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Week 4 Strategy for Smaller Field Pools

With a fresh look at my Week 4 spreadsheet, zero future value weighted, we are zeroing in on teams with the highest win probabilities as top picks. Buffalo leads the charge with the widest spread we have seen this season, possibly the largest we will see all year. Those who opted to pass on the Bills in Grandissimo last week might be tempted to jump on them now. With no holiday games on their slate, there is no reason to save Buffalo for later, though Week 5 at home against New England could be a compelling reason to hold off. Expect nearly all Grandissimo players to ride the Bills over these next two weeks. In smaller pools, you face a similar dilemma: which of these two weeks do you deploy Buffalo?

Next up is Detroit, another heavy favorite, set to play on Thanksgiving when they host Green Bay in a marquee matchup. In Grandissimo, saving Detroit for that game feels less critical, as we expect a tight spread, uncertainty about reaching that week in this pool, and the chance of a big injury before then. This week, Detroit hosts Cleveland with an 81% win probability per the Pinnacle moneyline on the Sharp App. Last week’s upset of Green Bay by the Browns might spook some, but with that strong win chance and a tough survivor Week 5 ahead, Detroit stands out as my top pick for small-field pools.

Week 4 Strategy for Moderate-Sized Field Pools

In moderate-sized field pools, the Bills and Lions remain solid choices, but Houston emerges as the top option on the spreadsheet. As of now, the Texans rank close to the third most likely team to win, just behind Denver, so keep an eye on line movements before locking in your picks each week. The Texans don’t offer much future value, unlikely to be favored again until Week 10 when they host Jacksonville. This makes Houston a strong consideration in pools of this size, where we have a decent chance of having to go the full 18 weeks to claim victory.

For pools with rebuys or double knockouts, Houston stands out as one of the week’s best plays. In those formats, target the weakest future value favorites until your rebuys and knockouts are exhausted, then shift to a more traditional approach.

Week 4 Strategy for Large Field Pools

In larger pools, Houston stands out as an even stronger choice, but New England emerges as the second-best option. The Patriots host Carolina, a team fresh off a survivor pool upset against the Falcons, where they shut out Atlanta. The Patriots carry nearly a 70% chance to win this matchup and offer little future value. With just 2.5% of entries on New England per Survivor Grid, they aren’t a contrarian pick for the sake of it. We seek high-leverage spots that make sense, and New England fits here for a big pool. A 70% chance to advance with a weak team few others will choose could be the key to conquering a large survivor like Circa. I expect Circa to see more Patriot picks than most office pools, yet not enough to avoid them. For knockout or rebuy pools, I favor New England for the same reasons as Houston, though I prefer Houston in those formats. We might get a shot at New England later, perhaps in Week 8 against Cleveland, if we can dodge a loss until then.

Denver ranks as the third choice in larger field pools. The Broncos host the Bengals, who struggled last week without Joe Burrow. Check out Weeks 6 and 7 for Denver: a London matchup against the Jets in Week 6 and a home game versus the Giants in Week 7. They also play a Christmas game at Kansas City. Taking them that week in Circa seems unlikely, but holding onto them could pay off if Mahomes is injured or if you want to use game theory and stand alone with a Denver pick to take down the pool. It’s a bit early to dwell on Christmas, but in Circa, we should at least start considering it.

Things are just starting to heat up in NFL survivor pools.  I am here all year to help guide you to the finish line.  If you have any questions on your particular pool feel free to message me on X @statsational 

Good luck and I hope to see you back next week!