Slimming Of The Slate By John Alesia

After last season’s bloodbath in the early weeks, the opening act of 2025 has felt like a gentle stroll with no seismic upsets to speak of. But Week 4 finally delivered a modest tremor to the survivor field, with the Chargers emerging as the biggest villain of the bunch. In Circa’s high-stakes arena, Los Angeles’ stumble claimed 5.7% of entries, while the shootout between Green Bay and Dallas shaved off another 3%. All told, 10% of the pool waved goodbye, leaving us with 12,404 survivors from the original 18,717. At a value of $1,509 per entry, the equity is starting to creep up.

Over in the Grandissimo, the carnage was more restrained—just 5% of entries met their end. In a pool where the buy-in hits $100K and the prize swells to $6.9 million, it’s no shock to see players playing it safer. That leaves 55 out of 69 entries still kicking, each one a potential ticket to seven figures.

This week marks the start of byes, which slims the slate and makes it even more difficult to advance. Let’s dissect the options and plot our moves.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line using sharp.app.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Week 5 Strategy for Smaller Field Pools

As always, we lean on the weekly spreadsheet to guide our picks, starting low entry pools like the Grandissimo. In these smaller sized contests, I’m all about playing as optimally as possible, zeroing in on the biggest favorite that fits the moment. This week, three teams sit neck-and-neck in win probability, but Detroit stands tallest. As of now, the Lions are road favorites in Cincinnati with an 82% chance to win. For those who shy away from picking road teams, let me hammer this home (again, just like on my podcast): the data doesn’t lie. Over the last 22 seasons, home teams favored by 6-8 points have won 72% of the time, while road teams in that same spread range have actually clipped at a slightly better 76%. Yet, you’ll still hear survivor players swear off road teams like it’s gospel. Me? I’m sticking with the numbers and riding the heaviest favorites, home or away.

If you burned Detroit last week, your next-best bets are Arizona and Buffalo. Both are solid, but context matters. Buffalo was a crowd favorite in Week 4, and unlike Detroit, they’re not slated for a holiday game. Using Buffalo this week does nibble at their future value, but in smaller pools like the Grandissimo, survival trumps long-term scheming. Advance now, worry later.

Then there’s Arizona, who’s had some a fairly easy schedule early this season. That’s made them a go-to pick in multiple weeks, and this might be their best spot yet. They’re hosting a Tennessee squad that’s looked downright dismal. For pool players across all formats, big or small who haven’t used the Cardinals yet, this feels like the week to pull the trigger.

Week 5 Strategy for Moderate-Sized Field Pools

With a 50% future value (FV) weighting in play, we can shift our lens to slightly larger pools, contests likely to stretch the full 18 weeks. In these scenarios, preserving long-term value becomes key, so this adjusted approach suits the grind ahead. The top two picks hold steady: Detroit and Arizona. For those still holding Arizona, it’s hard to resist them this week. Their next-best matchups, Jacksonville at home in Week 12, Atlanta at home in Week 16, or Cincinnati on the road in Week 17, don’t exactly set the pulse racing. In pools this size or bigger, where you’ll need 18 unique picks (20 for Circa and Grandissimo) and even more in pools with with double-pick weeks, this might be your clearest shot to lock in the Cardinals.

Sliding into third place is Indianapolis, a team that’s hit the ground running this season. Hosting a floundering Vegas squad, the Colts carry a 73% win probability and are poised to draw a solid chunk of picks, especially from those who’ve already burned Arizona. That said, many will be tempted to save Indy for their Week 8 home tilt against Tennessee, a game that’s already on the radar for future value plays.

Week 5 Strategy for Large Field Pools

In larger pools, Arizona cements itself as the top play, and all the reasons we’ve hashed out still ring true. With slim odds of revisiting the Cardinals later, they’re a must consider this week.

Indianapolis edges up to second with a 100% future value (FV) weighting. The Colts carry a bit more long-term juice, with upcoming games where they might be larger favorites than this week. Still, picking them now lets you dodge some heavily trafficked teams. They won’t be under the radar, but they’re not overcrowded either.

The wildcard here is New Orleans popping up as the third option, which feels like a head-scratcher. The Saints won’t get a second glance from me. They will be unowned however. Survivorgrid.com even pegs their opponent, the NY Giants, with a higher pick percentage at 3.3%. I get the buzz around Jackson Dart, but backing an underdog in this matchup? That’s a tough sell. In big pools, you’ll see these oddball picks every week, and some players with multiple entries might hedge by taking both New Orleans and the Giants to ensure one advances while torching a dead-end team. I’m not sold—too early for those gambles. I’d rather hoard my ammo and save the tricky plays for later when the math’s clearer and a bold move could clinch the pool.

Things are just starting to heat up in NFL survivor pools.  I am here all year to help guide you to the finish line.  If you have any questions on your particular pool feel free to message me on X @statsational 

Good luck and I hope to see you back next week!