Continued Survival By John Alesia

After a gradual elimination pace through the first four weeks of the NFL season, Week 5 delivered significant losses for most survivor pool participants. The week began with the announcement that the San Francisco 49ers would start a bunch of backup players against the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football, causing the betting line to shift sharply in favor of the Rams and drawing substantial interest. In the Circa Survivor pool, 28.4% of entries selected the Rams and were eliminated, while in the Grandissimo pool, 27.3% of participants lost their $100,000 buy-ins on the same outcome.

The largest eliminations stemmed from the Arizona Cardinals’ loss to the Tennessee Titans, which accounted for 36.4% of Grandissimo entries and 25.4% of Circa participants. In total, 39 entries were eliminated in Grandissimo, reducing the field to 16 remaining for the $6.9 million prize. Circa saw 7,758 entries removed, leaving 4,646 active participants, each with equity in the record $18.7 million pot if they advance to the end.

Secondary markets have seen increased activity, with equity values rising notably for the surviving entries. With that in mind, we now turn to the analysis for Week 6 to guide continued survival.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line using sharp.app.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Week 6 Strategy for Smaller Field Pools

As always, we begin by setting the Future Value on the survivor sheet to zero percent. This approach focuses solely on the most likely teams to win, based on vig-free moneylines, without considering future matchups. The Green Bay Packers stand out immediately as heavy favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals at home, with betting markets assigning them a 90.8% win probability. In smaller pools, where long-term scheduling is less of a concern, the Packers are a strong top choice. In contests like Grandissimo they are expected to be heavily selected.

For Week 6, the Threshold column provides guidance on when to consider fading a popular team. Survivor Grid data shows the Packers projected at 42.8% ownership across tracked pools. The threshold for Green Bay indicates that you would need a team with at least an 84.9% win probability to justify fading them. No such options exist based on current lines. Adjust this threshold based on your pool size—for example, if you think 70% or more of participants will select the Packers, the required win probability to fade declines, making alternatives like Denver (77.8% win probability at the Jets) or the Rams (77.5% in Baltimore) more viable.

Another factor to consider is Green Bay’s upcoming schedule, where they will be a large favorite multiple times. Even in a small pool you may opt to take one of these lesser picked teams in order to preserve Green Bay for an upcoming week. How small a pool and how many opponents you feel will take Green Bay will determine which way you go.

Week 6 Strategy for Moderate-Sized Field Pools

Now, let’s adjust the Future Value weighting on the sheet to 50 percent, which suits moderate-sized pools by incorporating more consideration for upcoming matchups while still prioritizing the current week’s probabilities. With this setting, the Green Bay Packers remain a top option, holding a strong projected edge despite the added future outlook.

As noted previously, the Packers face several weeks where they are expected to be heavy favorites. In Week 9, they host Carolina, likely producing a line similar to this week’s matchup against Cincinnati. That week also features the Rams as a viable alternative, hosting New Orleans and projected as a double-digit favorite. In Week 11, Green Bay travels to the Giants, another favorable spot; alternatives include Atlanta hosting Carolina, Pittsburgh hosting Cincinnati, and Houston at Tennessee.

While these upcoming opportunities for Green Bay are appealing, they leave flexibility for alternatives in those weeks. However, selecting the Packers this week will likely align with a significant portion of participants, reducing differentiation. Delaying until Week 9 or Week 11 could provide leverage in larger fields, assuming you survive.

The second standout at 50 percent weighting is the Las Vegas Raiders, a riskier but intriguing play against a struggling Titans team, where they carry nearly a 70 percent win probability. Their remaining favored opportunities are limited: home against Dallas in Week 11 and home versus the Giants in Week 17. In essence, this week represents the primary window to use Las Vegas, or it may go unused for the season.

For a safer alternative with broader ownership projection, consider the Denver Broncos, who have a 77.8 percent chance to defeat the Jets at home this week. Next week, they host the Giants in what should rank among the largest spreads of the slate. If Denver is selected now, Kansas City hosting Las Vegas emerges as a strong follow-up option. Denver could also be deployed in Week 8 against Dallas, though that week offers quality alternatives like Indianapolis hosting Tennessee, Philadelphia hosting the Giants, and Buffalo at Carolina. In Week 10, the Broncos are projected for the week’s highest spread, hosting the Raiders; alternatives include Buffalo at Miami and Indianapolis hosting Atlanta.

Week 6 Strategy for Large Field Pools

Now, we shift the Future Value weighting on the sheet to 100 percent, which is ideal for larger-field pools where the emphasis is primarily on preserving options for the long haul across the full 18-week season. In this configuration, the Las Vegas Raiders emerge as the top recommendation, a calculated risk worth evaluating closely. With the pool likely to extend the full schedule, deploying the Raiders now against Tennessee offers a low-ownership “free week” should they win. This selection avoids the majority of participants, positioning you for significant equity gains if another high-elimination week unfolds.

Pittsburgh ranks as the second option under this weighting, carrying a 70.4 percent win probability against Cleveland this week. Their projected low ownership, around 6.5 percent, provides substantial leverage against the field. Looking ahead, Pittsburgh hosts Cincinnati in Week 11, another favorable spot. Selecting Pittsburgh now would likely require using Green Bay or Atlanta that same week. Your next best chance to use Pittsburgh will come in Week 15 against Miami at home.

The Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles also present high win probabilities this week (77.5 percent and 77.1 percent, respectively), but both have stronger favored opportunities in the near term that could make waiting more strategic. Philadelphia faces the same Giants opponent at home in Week 8, while the Rams host New Orleans in Week 9, scenarios where they are projected to be favored by more than this week’s lines.

In contests like Circa and Grandissimo, Philadelphia’s matchup against Chicago on Thanksgiving will likely suppress their ownership this week, adding an extra layer of appeal for those seeking differentiation.

Survivor pools got a whole lot more interesting after Week 5 and they will only get more exciting the deeper you survive. I am here all year to help guide you to the finish line.  If you have any questions on your particular pool feel free to message me on X @statsational 

Good luck and I hope to see you back next week!