Heavy Favorites By John Alesia

Week 7 in the NFL survivor pools was another relatively tame affair compared to the chaos we’ve seen in past seasons, but it wasn’t without its share of drama. With most of the heavy favorites holding serve, the overall elimination rate stayed low, allowing a majority of entries to advance without much sweat. However, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ surprising 33-31 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night caught a fair number of players off guard.

In the Circa Survivor, which started the week with 4,418 entries, we saw 204 eliminations, leaving 4,214 still alive heading into Week 8. The big favorites like the Chiefs (picked 28.9%) , Patriots (28.3%), Bears (18.3%), Broncos (10%), and Packers (3.5%) all delivered wins, including a heart-stopping comeback by Denver that saved 440 entries from disaster.

Over in the Grandissimo, the high-stakes $100K-entry pool held steady with zero eliminations in Week 7, keeping all 15 remaining entries intact. This group largely rode the Chiefs to safety, with 12 of them selecting Kansas City. Considering Kansas City is a potential Thanksgiving game and the potential for a high number of picks on them I would have thought a few more would take a shot with one of the other big favorites. What this tells me is that for a $100k entry fee the players are for the most part playing it safe. Something to keep an eye on for future weeks.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line using sharp.app.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Week 8 Strategy for Smaller Field Pools

If your pool is grinding down to a small field, say, under 50 entries or so, you’ve got to shift gears and start plotting the most optimal path forward, while keeping a sharp eye on what your opponents might do. It’s not just about surviving the week, it’s about putting yourself in positions to win your pool. Fading a chalky favorite can create massive leverage, especially if you’re the only one left standing after an upset. But timing is everything. Don’t fade just to fade. Use data like projected ownership, win probabilities, and future value to guide your decisions.

This week throws up another double-digit favorite in Indianapolis hosting Tennessee, with the Colts clocking in at a 90.65% win probability in the betting markets. Unlike last week’s Chiefs spot, Indy doesn’t have a holiday game, so expect Circa and Grandissimo players to pile on them heavier than usual, potentially pushing ownership north of 50-60% in those formats. That’s where my spreadsheet’s “Threshold” column comes into play. It’s a key metric that tells you the win probability a contrarian pick would need to justify fading the popular team, based on expected ownership in your pool.

Right now, survivorgrid.com projections have Indy drawing about 33% of the overall field (though it’ll spike higher in big contests like Circa), making them the big chalk play. The threshold math shows that if you expect 50% or more of your remaining opponents to ride Indy, you could justify pivoting to a team like KC (83.95% win prob vs. Washington assuming no Jayden Daniels). Most sharp players in Grandissimo or similar small fields have likely burned KC already, leaving them unavailable. If that’s your spot and you anticipate 50%+ on Indy, fading to KC (if you still have them) could be a low-owned hammer, with ownership dipping under 5% in many pools.

Push that expected Indy ownership to 65%, and the threshold opens up the next tier: Buffalo (77.92% at Carolina), Philadelphia (77.68% vs. the Giants), Atlanta (77.43% at Miami), or New England (76.91% vs. Cleveland), all hovering around 77% win probs. New England might see the most ownership, so you’d get better leverage fading Indy with Buffalo, Philly, or Atlanta instead. Keep in mind Buffalo is one of 2 big favorites projected in Week 10. If you have Buffalo and took Denver already you may need to wait until week 10 to use them.

Week 8 Strategy for Moderate Field Pool

For moderate-sized pools, think 100 to 500 entries left. You’ll want to dial in that 50% FV weight on my spreadsheet to balance the long game, as these often stretch to 18 weeks but can end quicker with a few upsets. Cincinnati emerges as the clear second-best option behind Indianapolis, thanks to their near-zero future value. The Bengals probably won’t sniff this level of favoritism again this season, sitting at a solid 73.82% win probability against the Jets. Survivorgrid.com has them at 16.5% ownership right now, making it a luxury to lock them in and advance without burning a repeat contender. That said, in a field this size, it might pay to fade Cincinnati altogether. Plenty of entrants will chase that low-FV angle, and an upset could wipe out a chunk of the competition, creating leverage for you elsewhere.

Atlanta, as the third-ranked play, brings a touch more future value, and win probability, but draws nearly 20% of the field per survivorgrid, which is hefty chalk for a 77.43% win prob against Miami. With tasty spots ahead like Carolina at home in Week 11, New Orleans on the road in Week 12, and the Jets away in Week 13, there’s every reason to hold off on the Falcons this week and hope for the upset to remove a sizeable amount of your pool.

Week 8 Strategy for Larger Field Pools

For large pools, those massive fields like Circa with thousands still kicking or any setup guaranteed to grind through all 18 weeks, you’ll crank the FV weight to 100% on my spreadsheet to prioritize future value. The rankings here shift toward teams you won’t miss later, making Cincinnati the standout top choice this week. With a 73.82% win probability hosting the Jets and that FV sitting at a juicy 28, signaling they’ll rarely be this favored again, the Bengals are a prime spot to cash in now without regret. Survivorgrid pegs them at 16.5% ownership, which is more palatable in a huge field as opposed to a more moderately sized one.

We haven’t dug much into Philadelphia yet, but they’re a sneaky contrarian dart worth considering if you’ve still got them available. Clocking in at 77.68% win prob against the Giants with just 2.8% projected ownership, the Eagles pack solid upside this week despite their -25 FV, which hints at better spots down the road. In Circa or Grandissimo, players might stash them for that Thanksgiving clash with the Bears, but in other large pools, pivoting here could net you a ton of equity if the favorites flop around you.

If you need help dialing in your specific pool or want more on these leverage plays, hit me up on X @Statsational. Good Luck!