Trimming The Field By John Alesia

Week 9 brought a moderate wave of eliminations to the NFL survivor pools, with the Green Bay Packers delivering the biggest blow to contestants who backed them. The Packers’ upset loss accounted for the majority of the damage.

In the Circa Survivor, 288 entries were knocked out, leaving 1,769 still in the hunt for the $18.72 million prize. Each surviving entry now holds an estimated equity of about $10,580.

The Grandissimo pool saw lighter casualties, losing just two entries on the Packers, trimming the field to 11 remaining for the $6.9 million top prize. As this high-stakes contest narrows, tracking the plays here can offer insights for your own pool as it gets down to very few entries left.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line using sharp.app.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Week 10 Strategy for Small Field Pools

Small field pools are those where a winner could be crowned in the next few weeks. The Grandissimo serves as an example of this type of pool. On my spreadsheet I focus heavily on the largest favorite available as long as they are not a team I must have in the very near future. Buffalo stands out as the largest favorite this week with an 82.5 percent win probability on the road against Miami, but the Bills have been used by many. In Circa 31 percent can still take Buffalo while in Grandissimo 5 of the 11 remaining can take Buffalo. Denver sits pretty close to Buffalo in terms of win probability at 81.3 percent hosting Las Vegas. In Circa 32 percent can take Denver while in Grandissimo 5 of 11 can choose the Broncos. The next best team as far as win percent is Detroit at 79.7 percent visiting Washington.

The Lions are a holiday team so some from the Circa pools may stay away although their Thanksgiving day game is a tough one with Green Bay. More than likely the low pick percent on Detroit this week at 7.6 percent is due to them having some great matchups in the near future. They get the Giants at home in Week 12 and Dallas at home in Week 14.

If your pool has very few entries left you can start looking at the threshold column on my sheet. Shown here are the thresholds needed to fade each team based on survivorgrid.com pick percent projections. In pools with few left these pick percents will be vastly different. The team most likely to garner the most picks in your pool will be Denver at a projected 28.1 percent. If 30 percent or more will be on Denver you are justified in taking any team with a 75 percent win probability or higher. When doing this you want to try and be solo on the team you are moving to in order to give you the best chance at winning the pool. This move may not be best this week as you may see picks spread out over 3 or 4 teams depending how many remain in your pool. But you need to do an analysis of who everyone has remaining in your pool to make that call. Feel free to message me on X @statsational and I can give you the threshold number for what you are projecting pick%’s to be for any team this week or in the future.

Week 10 Strategy for Moderate Field Pools

Moderate field pools are those almost certain to get to Week 18 but have a chance to be finished before then. For these pools we see not much change on my spreadsheet. Denver flips to be slightly better than Buffalo with an 81.3 percent win probability hosting Las Vegas compared to Buffalo’s 82.5 percent on the road against Miami. The sheet does not take into account availability of teams in your pool.

Seattle has a bit less future value than Denver, Buffalo, and Detroit with a slightly lower win percent at 72.6 percent home for Arizona. Seattle will get more picks in pools of this size than they will in small field pools. The Seahawks get Tennessee on the road in Week 12. That may be the last chance you have to take Seattle.

If you are looking to get different this week, Seattle will be fairly low owned under 15 percent with a 73 percent chance to win. You want to look to Week 12 to make sure you have Baltimore or Detroit left to pick as they are the clear top choices that week. If so you may want to take a shot with Seattle this week while most others look elsewhere.

Week 10 Strategy for Large Field Pools

Large field pools are those with many entries left, like Circa. For large pools things become a lot more interesting. It is hard to project too far out in the future. A prime example of that is Carolina being a top pick this week. Nobody had Carolina on their radar a few weeks ago but now they are an option. The spreadsheet has them as the top team if we weight future value at 75 percent. The reason being is you are unlikely to want Carolina again. Being able to get by with them this week is like having a free week. That is of course if they win. Carolina has a 70.7 percent chance to win this week against New Orleans.

If we are going to see 25 percent plus on Carolina then they become a really good fade candidate. We have a lot more options with a higher win percent.

Teams like Seattle who have slightly more future value but we can potentially get away with not needing them again. Or Indianapolis which few can take but if you have held on to them this is a great spot as they will be virtually unowned and have a higher probability to win than potentially the highest picked team this week.

As always if you have any questions feel free to message me on X @statsational Good Luck and I will see you back here next week!