Exploit Spots By John Alesia

Sometimes the smart mathematical play doesn’t work out. Well, last week it worked out extremely well. The Carolina Panthers were a popular pick in most pools. Circa saw them get the most picks, garnering 28% of all remaining entries. These are the spots you have to exploit in survivor. You will have to fade the most popular pick some weeks. The weeks you want to do it are when you have a team with a higher win percentage that you can take over the most popular pick. Obviously, future games come into play, but more often than not, these are great opportunities to gain equity on the field.

Carolina did not disappoint the faders as they went down to New Orleans, knocking out 490 entries in Circa. In Grandissimo, just one person fell with Carolina. The other team that hurt people last week was Buffalo. In Grandissimo, four of the 11 remaining entries found their way onto Buffalo.

In Circa, 15% were knocked out with Buffalo, a total of 261 entries had them. On the whole, we are left with 808 entries in Circa and six in Grandissimo.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line using sharp.app.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Week 11 Strategy for Small Field Pools

In small field pools, we want to look at very little if not no future value. A lot of pools are getting into this category now as we have lost so many entries the last few weeks. This is where the secondary markets start to heat up. Survivorsweats.com has 105 entries across various pools looking for someone to buy a share or all of. This is the best way to handle the huge amount of variance you will see in playing survivor pools every year.

Hedging is a great option as well, but it can be a lot messier and likely cost more to do. Hedging becomes more beneficial and easier to calculate as you have fewer opponents left and fewer weeks left. If you start hedging too soon, you can give away most if not all of your equity and never see a return. There is no hard fast rule on when you should think about hedging, but the later the better. If you have any hedge questions, feel free to hit me up on X @statsational.

This week, the Patriots are the team garnering the most attention. In small field pools like Grandissimo, five of the six remaining can take New England. If you were one of the six and wondering if it was worth it to fade New England, I have that covered on my spreadsheet in the Threshold column. If you think the four others with New England all take them, then 67% of the field will be on the Pats. When I change the spreadsheet from what Survivorgrid is showing as 48.3% of all entries on New England to 67%, the threshold drops to just under 70%. That means you can fade the Pats with any team over a 70% win probability.

You would also want to get on a team that nobody else is on to give you a shot at winning the pool. If you land on the team the one person without the Pats available lands on, then your edge is greatly diminished. So fading a big favorite like New England this week is risky on many levels. The next biggest favorite is Baltimore. Many of you have taken the Ravens already. Three of the six remaining in Grandissimo have taken Baltimore. The team that took the Patriots can take the Ravens. Do they take Baltimore this week and not have them as the potential largest favorite at home against the Jets next week?

Surely the other two who have Baltimore left will be using them next week. Houston would be the next biggest favorite. Half the participants in Grandissimo have used them already, but the one who cannot use New England has Houston available. That seems like their most likely pick. Green Bay is not far behind Houston in win probability, but they have been used by the entire pool. I focused on Grandissimo, but if you are in a similar size pool, you can start to analyze it in the same way.

Week 11 Strategy for Mid Size Field Pools

In mid-size pools, we want to look at future value a little more. I view a mid-size pool as one that likely gets to Week 18 but potentially may end sooner. New England is still a strong play in these types of pools. Their 87% win probability is high enough to justify taking what will likely see half of your pool take them as well.

There are some future games where New England will be a potential pick. In Week 13, they host the Giants. The other big favorites that week will be Baltimore hosting Cincinnati, which most won’t have available to take, LA Chargers hosting Las Vegas, Philadelphia hosting Chicago, Rams at Carolina, and Tampa Bay home for Arizona. Plenty of options outside of New England in Week 13.

Houston is the second favorite pick on the spreadsheet, weighting FV at 35%. Houston hosts Arizona in Week 15 and Las Vegas in Week 16. If you are pivoting to Houston, you are doing so in hopes of a New England loss, which could double your equity. The fade of New England is not as easy as Carolina last week.

If you had 100 people in your pool last week and 30% took Carolina, who had a 30% chance to lose, the expectation is 9% or nine entries would be out. This week, New England has a 12% chance to lose with 50% of your pool’s entries on them. That is an expected loss of six entries.

Week 11 Strategy for Large Field Pools

In very large pools that will go all 18 weeks and likely have a sizeable chop, we open it up to 75% future value on my sheet. New England is still the favorite choice because of their high win percentage and relatively low future value. Houston, who was the second choice in a mid-size pool, remains as such in a larger pool. They are definitely a better option in a pool of this size.

The third team on the list is Pittsburgh. This is a team that will not have many on them. You certainly sacrifice some win probability over the other teams we are considering, but you lose nothing in future value.

The Steelers have a good matchup in Week 15 when they host Miami, but you may have good options to take that week besides them, like San Francisco hosting Tennessee. It is not a play I would consider in smaller pools, but Pittsburgh could be a team you get different with this week. If the chaos happens again, you may pick up a big chunk on the field. If they win and the chalk picks win as well, you pick up slight equity in the fact you give up little in future value. The cost is in the win probability you give up this week to do it.

As always if you have any questions feel free to message me on X @statsational Good Luck and I will see you back here next week!