Targeted Damage By John Alesia

Coming off the absolute massacre in Week 10, where heavy favorites like the Panthers and Bills crashed and burned, wiping out a staggering 769 entries in Circa and leaving just 1000 hanging on, Week 11 felt like the calm after the storm. Favorites mostly held serve this time, with only targeted damage from a handful of upsets that didn’t trigger a field-wide apocalypse.

In Circa Survivor, starting the week with those 1000 survivors from the original 18,718, the Patriots were the clear preferred choice with 440 picks, sailing past the Jets without drama. Texans drew 129, scraping by the Titans in a nail-biter behind Davis Mills. Steelers got 115, Packers 99, Ravens 88, all cashing in wins. Cowboys pulled 25, 49ers 21, Bills 12, Dolphins 10, those came through too. The real damage hit the Falcons with 43 entries torched by Carolina, Vikings snagging 11 in the loss to Chicago, Chargers claiming 6 against Jacksonville, and one poor soul on the Chiefs bounced by Denver. That adds up to 61 gone, 939 still in the fight. Prize pool at $18.718 million means each live entry’s now worth roughly $19,934.

All six remaining Grandissimo entries from the starting 69 pushed ahead smoothly. Four banked on the Patriots, two on the Steelers, both groups advancing clean. Each entry sits with $1,150,000 in equity with all hoping for that $6.9 million pot. It does not appear any deals will be made before this weeks games so it will take selling some shares on the secondary market with survivorsweat.com in order to cash in some equity.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line using sharp.app.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.
  

Week 12 Strategy for Small Field Pools

When we look at pools with a small number of entries left, we have to start using some game theory. Knowing how many of each team your opponents can pick will be key. In a pool with six left, like the Grandissimo, you can be assured each participant is trying to guess what their opponents will be taking. With my sheet set to zero future value, we can see which teams have the highest probability to win. Those are the teams that those of you in a small pool will focus on the most. Obviously, at this point in the season, you may not have those teams available to you. The key is to take the best team possible, with the caveat that the team is not being taken by too large a number of opponents and that the team may be a better option in a very near future week where the next best option this week is better than the next best option in that future week

.With that in mind, Seattle and Baltimore are the clear top choices this week, both with an 89 percent chance to win their games. Many saved Baltimore last week to take them this week. But Baltimore will be a large favorite next week again when they face Cincinnati at home. Seattle, on the other hand, while having decent future value, will never be a double-digit favorite again this year barring something major. For those with both left, almost assuredly they will be taking Seattle this week. If a participant only has Baltimore, they will have to decide if their next best option is better than the next best option next week.

Detroit is the team with the highest win probability that is not Seattle or Baltimore, but most have used Detroit at some point this season. In Circa, we have one entry yet to use any of these top three teams for Week 12. It will be interesting to see how he plays it, but in all likelihood, this is his Seattle spot. My spreadsheet as posted has the pick percentage from survivorgrid.com. With Seattle projected at 26 percent, there is not much of a reason to fade them according to the Threshold column. If 60 percent of your pool is taking them, that drops the Threshold to 76.4 percent, meaning you will want to be solo on a team that has at least that probability to win their game while also trying to be solo on that pick. Baltimore would be in the same exact boat as Seattle when it comes to threshold level.

It is going to be difficult, with the teams most have available to them, to get off of Seattle or Baltimore if either is a possibility. With few having Detroit to choose from and so many taking New England last week, we have one team at 75 percent or better to win that is available to most, and that is the San Francisco 49ers. This would be the team to use if you were fading Seattle and Baltimore, but if there is anyone remaining in your pool that cannot choose either of those teams, it is likely they will be on SF as well and thus diminishing the EV you thought you were gaining by fading one of the top two. The moral of the story is that it is likely your best option is Baltimore or Seattle if you have either available, and you should take them despite the popularity.

There is one big advantage in taking San Francisco this week.  With the 49ers playing the Monday night game you have the benefit of seeing what happens on Sunday and being able to use that information to make a better hedge bet.

Week 12 Strategy for Moderate Field Pools

For moderate pools that are likely to make it to 18 weeks but certainly not a lock, we can look at future value a little more. Most weeks, we will be in a similar situation as small pools. This week is no different, as the top two teams in terms of win probability are the top two teams to take. Most of the same logic in taking those teams applies to moderate-sized pools.With Baltimore, not only are they a great option in Week 13, but they are also a good option in Week 15 when Jacksonville and SF will potentially garner 60 to 70 percent of picks. That can be a great EV situation for Baltimore backers. Getting to that point is the hard part. Those who take San Francisco this week will not have them available in Week 15, and they are currently seeing the third most entries taken this week. San Francisco is at Cleveland next week and then the aforementioned Week 15 game with Tennessee at home that many will save them for.

Week 12 Strategy for Large Field Pools

In larger pools, we like to find some more unique plays if possible. When we look at the spreadsheet, it is a little more difficult to read as the season progresses because many teams are not available that will rate out highly on the sheet. Many of you may have taken Seattle and Baltimore already and are in a large pool and want to fade San Francisco, who will be the third most popular pick. The teams over a 70 percent chance to win this week are mostly teams that have been taken or are in better spots later in the year. That makes this week tricky to try and differentiate in a large pool.The best option for a weak team that is favored would be Las Vegas. The Raiders are a 62.5 percent win probability team. Not really a strong choice, but one few will have. Typically, I would prefer taking a team like this when the chalky picks are a much lower win probability than what we have this week. But if you want to get different, this is likely the best team on the board and one you will not want to take again. But for most people, the picks should look similar to what we are looking at for moderate-sized pools.

Overall I think most of the thinking will be from those with options between Seattle and Baltimore.  For everyone else the pick will make itself.  Of course the more people left in your pool the more you will see some outlier picks like Kansas City in Circa last week but those will be limited. 

As always please feel free to message me with any questions you have in your particular pool on X @statsational 

Good Luck and I will see you back next week!