The Convergence of Pool Sizes By John Alesia

If you’re still reading this article, you survived one of the most brutal weeks in Circa Survivor history. Week 13A, the Thanksgiving slate, delivered absolute carnage. Every single favorite lost. Philadelphia, Baltimore, Detroit, and Kansas City all went down, eliminating a staggering 849 of the 900 remaining entries in a single day. That’s a 94.3% elimination rate in one week.

For those who played for leverage and picked one of the four underdogs, congratulations. You were rewarded handsomely. The 49 survivors advanced to Week 13B, where just 4 more were eliminated. We now have 45 entries remaining in Circa Survivor heading into Week 14.

In Circa Grandissimo, the story played out exactly as expected. Three entries took Philadelphia, three took Baltimore, and nobody had the guts to take an underdog. All six were eliminated, leaving them to split the $6.9 million prize. Sometimes the conservative play doesn’t pay off, but in this case, they all still walked away with over $1 million each.

The chaos of Thanksgiving weekend is a stark reminder: survivor pools are unpredictable, and even the “safest” plays can blow up spectacularly. But if you’re still alive, you’ve navigated the minefield successfully, and your equity has skyrocketed. Let’s talk about how to keep that momentum going in Week 14.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

The Circa Christmas Format: Week 17A and 17B

Before we dive into Week 14 strategy, it’s important to note that Circa Survivor participants will face another split-week format similar to Thanksgiving. Week 17 will be divided into Christmas games (Week 17A) and the remainder of the slate (Week 17B). This means you’ll need to plan your path through the next several weeks with this format in mind.

Looking at the Christmas slate, Detroit hosting Minnesota currently looks to be the best option, as they could be about a 7-point favorite in that game. The other Christmas games feature very tight spreads, which could create a similar dynamic to what we saw on Thanksgiving where favorites struggled. Planning ahead for these split weeks is crucial, as you’ll need to ensure you have viable options for both the holiday games and the regular slate. If you don’t have Detroit available for Week 17A, you may need to be strategic about which teams you use between now and then.

Late Season Strategy: The Convergence of Pool Sizes

With just five weeks remaining in the season, the strategic differences between small, moderate, and large pools begin to diminish. At this point, the main focus shifts to finding an optimal path through Week 18. For most pools, survival is the priority. However, if you’re in a pool with so many entries that the split isn’t worth it, getting different when the situation calls for it can be positive expected value.

That said, game theory still has its place. When you’re down to so few remaining entries that you can potentially win the pool outright in a single week, taking a calculated risk to gain leverage makes sense. Several of you may find yourselves in exactly that situation this week.

The key questions become: Which teams do I have left? What’s my best path to Week 18? And where can I gain leverage without sacrificing too much win probability?

I will post the spreadsheet here with a variety of future value weightings for your reference, but the article will not focus as heavily on different size pools. Instead, we’ll focus on the optimal path forward regardless of pool size. Let’s break down the Week 14 options with this framework in mind.

Week 14: The Top Options

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. NO 78.5% win probability is the highest win probability team this week and is garnering nearly 61% of all picks across pools. The combination of having the best chance to win and the low number of entries that have used Tampa up until this point accounts for their high pick percentage.

Looking at Tampa’s remaining schedule, their future games include Week 15 vs. Atlanta (4.5-point favorite), Week 16 @ Carolina (3.5-point favorite), Week 17 @ Miami (2.5-point favorite), and Week 18 vs. Carolina (6.5-point favorite). None of these represent significantly better spots than this week’s matchup against New Orleans. Week 15 vs. Atlanta is comparable, but this week represents Tampa’s best remaining opportunity. In that same Week 15, other strong options include Philadelphia vs. Las Vegas (11.5-point favorite), Buffalo @ New England (0.5-point favorite), and Kansas City vs. LA Chargers (4.5-point favorite).

The Chalk Play: If you have Tampa available, taking them is perfectly defensible. They’re the safest option this week, and surviving is paramount.

The Fade Opportunity: My threshold column helps determine whether fading the popular pick is worthwhile. This week, just holding at the 61% pick percentage, we can see any team over a 59% chance to win would be a worthwhile fade. The higher the pick percentage, the weaker the team you use in place of them can be justified.

But remember: When we fade the chalk, we try to get on a team nobody else is on. This improves our expected value and chance to win the pool this week. If you can be solo on a team and they win while Tampa loses, you could potentially scoop the entire pot or gain massive equity.

The Leverage Plays:

Denver Broncos @ LV 77.7% win probability: Denver has essentially the same win probability as Tampa, but they’ve been used by most entries. In pools of all sizes, if you have Denver available, this is the spot to take them. You gain massive leverage over the field with a team just as likely to win as Tampa.

Looking at Denver’s remaining schedule, their future games are Week 15 vs. Green Bay, Week 16 @ Jacksonville, Week 17 @ Kansas City, and Week 18 vs. LA Chargers. This week @ Las Vegas is clearly their best remaining opportunity. 

Los Angeles Rams @ ARI 77.0% win probability: Few can take the Rams, and they have a 77% chance to win this week. The Rams’ remaining schedule includes Week 15 vs. Detroit, Week 16 @ Seattle, Week 17 @ Atlanta, and Week 18 vs. Arizona. If you do have the Rams available this is a prime spot to pick them as a near highest win probability on the slate coupled with the low pick%.

Their Week 18 home game against Arizona projects to be their best remaining spot by a significant margin. However, looking at Week 18 alternatives, you’ll have options like Buffalo vs. New York Jets, Kansas City @ Las Vegas, and Philadelphia vs. Washington. It is also difficult to predict what the landscape will look like in week 18 due to some teams resting players if their playoff spot is locked in.  If you somehow had both Denver and the Rams available, the tiebreaker would go to Denver since their future schedule is weaker and this is clearly their best spot.

Seattle Seahawks @ ATL 75.9% win probability: Another team most people can’t take, Seattle offers excellent leverage if you still have them. Seattle’s remaining schedule includes Week 15 vs. Indianapolis, Week 16 vs. LA Rams, Week 17 @ Carolina, and Week 18 @ San Francisco.

This is Seattle’s best remaining spot and tough to pass on if you still have them available.

Green Bay Packers vs. CHI 72.1% win probability: The Packers are a solid option this week for the few that can take them.  Their remaining schedule is a tough one. The Packers future games include Week 15 @ Denver, Week 16 at Chicago, Week 17 vs. Baltimore, and Week 18 @ Minnesota. 

Buffalo Bills vs. CIN 70.7% win probability: Buffalo has two favorable games remaining after this week. Week 16 @ Cleveland, and Week 18 vs. New York Jets.

Buffalo’s Week 18 game stands out as one of the best spots on the entire remaining schedule.

Baltimore Ravens @ PIT 70.5% win probability: Baltimore is a strong team with very low ownership. Their remaining schedule includes Week 15 @ Cincinnati, Week 16 vs. New England , Week 17 @ Green Bay, and Week 18.

Baltimore’s Week 15 game @ Cincinnati is their best remaining spot after this week but it is against a team that just beat them on their home field. 

Cleveland Browns vs. TEN (64.5% win probability, 12.2% pick rate): The team getting the second-most pick percentage is Cleveland. The Browns, with that great defense, will host Tennessee. Looking at Cleveland’s future schedule, they have no positive future value. 

This is clearly the week to use Cleveland if you’re going to use them at all. They’re projected to be underdogs in every remaining game. If you’re in a pool with multiple picks this week or future weeks, then the Browns make a lot of sense, as you’ll need to take some weaker teams to survive. At 64.5% win probability, they’re a riskier play than the top options, but the 12.2% pick rate is still significantly lower than Tampa’s 60.8%, offering some leverage.

Conclusion

Week 13 will go down as one of the most memorable weeks in survivor pool history. The Thanksgiving carnage eliminated 94% of the Circa Survivor field in a single day, and those who survived are now sitting on massive equity. If you’re still alive, congratulations. You’ve earned it.

Week 14 presents a relatively straightforward decision for most: Tampa Bay is the chalk, and they have the highest win probability. But for those looking to gain leverage, Denver, the Rams, and Seattle offer nearly the same win probability with a fraction of the ownership. Of course the chances are slim you have one of those teams remaining.  If you do, you should almost certainly take them this week.

When evaluating your options this week, pay close attention to future value and the path ahead. Teams like Cleveland have no good games left after this week, making them “use now or never” options. Meanwhile, teams like Buffalo, Kansas City, and Philadelphia have strong future spots that might be worth preserving them for.

As always, you can tailor this advice to fit your pool’s specific rules, size, and your personal risk tolerance. If you need any help with your pool, feel free to message me on X @statsational.

Best of luck this week, and I hope to welcome you back next week as a Week 14 survivor!