One Final Decision by John Alesia

We’ve reached the finish line. Week 18 is here, and for those still standing, this is where all the strategic planning, leverage plays, and survival instincts culminate in one final decision.

The Week 17 Recap: Christmas Chaos and Tampa Trouble

Last week’s Circa Christmas games (Week 17A) produced a shocking result: just one casualty. The smartest theoretical play for those who couldn’t take a favorite was Washington. With Dallas projected as the highest-picked team (and they were), Washington backers gained maximum leverage. Of course, in classic Survivor fashion, the one person who took Washington was the lone loser. Sometimes it doesn’t pay to be smart.

The others forced to take an underdog went with Minnesota, and they survived their upset over Detroit.

Week 17B saw 3 entries eliminated with Tampa Bay. We now have 6 entries remaining competing for the $18.72 million top prize.

Week 18: No Future Value, Only Present Reality

At this point in the season, future value is irrelevant. You’re taking the best team you have available, period. But “best” doesn’t always mean highest win probability. It depends on pool size and opponent behavior.

Heads-Up Strategy:

If you’re down to a 1v1 situation, always take the team with the highest win probability on the moneyline. You want your opponent forced to either match you or take a worse team. Simple as that.

Small Pool Strategy (6-10 Entries):

This is where game theory becomes critical. The more entries concentrated on a single pick, the more valuable it becomes to fade that pick with a strong alternative. This is what the threshold column measures.

Looking at the Week 18 board, Jacksonville (84.1% win probability, 30.1% picked) is the most popular choice. Even with 30% of the pool on them, they remain a very strong play. According to my threshold analysis, you would need a team with at least 82% win probability to justify fading Jacksonville at that ownership level.

However, if you believe 60% of your pool will be on Jacksonville, then you can take any team with better than 72% win probability and gain positive expected value.

The key: If you’re moving off a popular team, you want to take the best team you can from a win probability standpoint that you can also be solo on (assuming very few entries remain). If you’re in a pool with so many entries left that the split isn’t worth much, you’re likely not going to be solo, but you’d still want a team with very low ownership and decent win probability.

The Week 18 Landscape

Here’s the current state of the board, ranked by Expected Value (EV):

Tier 1: The Leverage Kings (Unlikely You Have Any Of These Left To Pick)

1. Denver (vs. LAC, -12.5): 85.5% Win Prob
   • The highest EV play on the board. Denver is a massive favorite with almost no ownership. If you have them available, this is the dream scenario.
2. New England (vs. MIA, -10.5): 82.0% Win Prob
   • Another elite leverage play. Strong win probability, virtually no ownership.
3. Houston (vs. IND, -10): 81.6% Win Prob
   • Slightly more ownership than Denver or New England, but still an excellent leverage spot.

Tier 2: The Chalk

4. Jacksonville (vs. TEN, -12.5): 84.1% Win Prob, 30.1% Picked, 1.03 EV
   • The most popular pick, and for good reason. Jacksonville has the highest win probability among realistic options. If you’re in a large pool or don’t have access to the leverage plays above, this is your anchor.

Tier 3: The Fading Favorites

5. LA Rams (vs. ARI, -7.5): 74.5% Win Prob, 7.6% Picked
6. Buffalo (vs. NYJ, -7): 75.3% Win Prob, 11.5% Picked
7. Cincinnati (vs. CLE, -7.5): 75.5% Win Prob, 13.9% Picked
8. Minnesota (vs. GB, -6.5): 71.0% Win Prob, 0.8% Picked

These teams all hover in the 71-75% win probability range. Buffalo and Cincinnati carry higher ownership, making them less appealing from an EV standpoint. The Rams and especially Minnesota offer better leverage due to lower pick percentages.  I expect the Minnesota pick% to increase as there are many entries with Minnesota available.

9. Philadelphia (vs. WSH, -7): 73.7% Win Prob, 11.9% Picked
10. Kansas City (@LV, -5.5): 70.0% Win Prob, 2.1% Picked

Philadelphia is heavily picked relative to their win probability. Kansas City offers a contrarian angle with low ownership, though the win probability is starting to dip into uncomfortable territory.

Tier 4: The Desperation Zone

11. Baltimore (@PIT, -3.5): 63.3% Win Prob, 0.7% Picked
12. Dallas (@NYG, -4): 66.3% Win Prob, 9.2% Picked
13. Atlanta (vs. NO, -3.5): 61.3% Win Prob, 6.5% Picked
14. Chicago (vs. DET, -3): 58.6% Win Prob, 3.0% Picked
15. Tampa Bay (vs. CAR, -2.5): 57.1% Win Prob, 0.4% Picked
16. Seattle (@SF, -1): 52.2% Win Prob, 0.0% Picked

Hedging

The best week to Hedge is week 18 when we know the pool will be ending.  Very few can pick the Sunday night game which would be the best way to hedge.  That is the game we will have the most information about the status of the pool before it kicks off.  The next best options will be the late afternoon games.  In that window are LA Rams, Chicago, Kansas City, Buffalo, Denver, Philadelphia, New England.  If you are unsure about a pick and it is between an early game or a late game, you should probably choose the later game to give yourself more information to hedge with.

Final Thoughts

We’ve survived 17 weeks of chaos, upsets, and heartbreak. Week 18 is about executing your plan and trusting your process. If you’ve preserved one of the leverage kings (Denver, New England, Houston), you’re in an elite position. If you’re on Jacksonville with the masses, you’re playing for a split. And if you’re forced into the desperation zone, well, stranger things have happened.

Good luck in Week 18. Let’s finish strong and have a happy new year!
John Alesia