2023 CIRCA SURVIVOR – WEEK 12-A/B REVIEW / WEEK 13 PREVIEW

AFTER A WILD NFL WEEK AND TWO SIGNIFICANT UPSETS, CIRCA SURVIVOR CONTEST NOW DOWN TO 80 PLAYERS

This week’s report is posted at the conclusion of the Week 12-A and 12-B games, and just prior to the Week 13 games, which comprises the usual NFL schedule played on Thursday, Sunday and Monday.

WEEKS 12-A AND 12-B REVIEW

Recall that the four 12-A games were played last Thursday (3) and Friday (1) — Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, respectively.  Obviously, with far fewer games to choose from and such limited options, advance preparations and survivor contest strategy played a critical role in who survived, and who did not.  Green Bay beating Detroit was the most meaningful upset.  That killed off 216 entries, which sliced a whopping 58.1 percent of the field down to less than half of its prior size.  

The upset gods weren’t finished teasing the remaining survivors.  

Last Sunday and Monday resulted in another wipe out, as 55.1 percent of the remaining field went down on two significant upsets — the NY Giants beating New England, and Chicago defeating Minnesota.  Both games went down to the final seconds and were decided by late field goal attempts.

So now, the 2023 Circa Survivor contest is down to the final 80 entries.  Congratulations to those who made it this far.  Based on equity shares of the grand total $9,267,000 winner-take-all prize pool, each surviving ticket is worth – hang on, get ready, drum roll please…….$115,837. 

After a dozen weeks, the finalists can now see the light at the end of the tunnel.  However, tunnel vision can be deceptive.  For most of the 80 dreamers, the beam of light and ray of hope is an oncoming locomotive of defeat and disappointment.  However, someone in this crowd is about to win one of the biggest prizes in sports gambling history.  Moreover, just the fact these survivors made it this far is an accomplishment to be proud of.  

Let’s see what happens, have some fun, ride along with them, and enjoy the show!

WHO’S STILL IN?

Keeping track of the Circa Survivors isn’t easy.  The best way to keep track of the field and who’s in and who’s out is to follow along on social media.  Twitter X is a decent place to start.  I suggest you follow @CircaSports (the official Circa sportsbook account) and follow @SurvivorSweat (thats us).  We offer options and advice.  Circa doesn’t do that.  But hey, if you’re reading this – follow both. 

Let’s give a shout out to Marc Goldberg, who posted this tweet a few days ago.  I love that he calls out Pauly Howard (@paulyhoward), who happens to be one of the best and most knowledgeable sports handicapping media personalities around:

Last year’s co-champions went bust.  Oh well, they’re still millions ahead.  Fortunately, both Mike Buchmiller and Russell Rosenblum share their thoughts and advice in a weekly podcast, exclusively here at Survivor Sweat.  Even if you’re not alive in the contest, they provide lots of solid NFL handicapping advice.  Follow them here: @MBuchmiller and @rosenblumr.

As for me, I went bust in Week 5.  Stupid me, for going with the Washington Commanders.  Still, it’s not all bad.  I just won $25,000 in the Westgate SuperContest (mini-week competition) after last week’s results, and am still alive and in great shape in that NFL handicapping contest, so this soothes some disappointment.

WEEK 13 PREVIEW

Okay now, let’s get to NFL Week 13.  Lucky 13, right?

We’ll see.

When we try to predict which teams will be the most popular picks in the Circa Survivor contest, there are two main factors to consider.  First, which teams are still available to the contestants?  Second, what are the perceptions of the remaining pool of teams and what’s their likelihood of winning the upcoming games outright?

We don’t know the first part of this equation.  For the purposes of answering the second part, a great place to start are the pointspreads.  Week 13 shows us that the Dallas Cowboys are one of the biggest favorites, laying -9.5 on Thursday night.  The Miami Dolphins are also big favorites, laying -9.5.  The Jacksonville Jaguars are right there among the top three, at -8.5.  

Accordingly, we can make a reasonable summation that Dallas and Miami have probably already been used up by the survivors.  That leaves Jacksonville as a very live pick — assuming that’s an option.  I expect it will be an option for many of those 80 contenders.  Indeed, I expect that a sizable percentage — perhaps at least half (40) — could be riding the Jaguars on Monday Night Football as their big favorites hosting the Cincinnati Bengals, which should be noted are significantly weaker without All-Pro QB Joe Burrow and are now starting a rookie. 

There could also be some contest love for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home who are hosting the awful Carolina Panthers, which just fired their head coach.  Tampa Bay is laying -5.5

Finally, the Pittsburgh Steelers could also garner a bit of contest support since they’re hosting the disrespected Arizona Cardinals.  It’s hard to fathom much support going to the scraps of teams elsewhere, unless there are some outlier tickets and gutsy players determined to take a long shot flier on one of the more risky teams, founded entirely on the hope that the rest of the betting card blows up with lots of upsets.

It seems very clear the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to be the consensus pick this week.  So far, through 12 weeks, I’ve correctly nailed 11 of the consensus teams — missing just one week with what is expected to be the top choice.

SURVIVOR SUMMATION

The fourth annual 2023 Circa Survivor contest cost $1,000 per entry.  There were 9,267 initial entries, back as of early September.  After 12 weeks (actually 13 segments) nearing the end of November, there are only 80 live entries remaining.  

This year’s Circa Survivor offers a winner-take-all prize of $9,267,000.  The implied value per entry is now up to $115,827. 

For the latest contest updates and survivor strategy tips, be sure to follow @SurvivorSweat on Twitter / X.

Also, be advised that active Circa Survivor entries are for sale on this site at the marketplace.