Circa Survivor – Week 13 By The Numbers

If you are still reading this article, you are likely getting down to the nitty gritty in your pool.  Quite a few of you have already won your pools.  Shout out to my mom, who took down a pool that started with 50 participants this week.  If you win your pool let me know on twitter @statsational.  Pools lost, on average, 30-35% of their remaining entries.  Congratulations if you are still hanging in there.  As you get closer to the finish line, many decisions must be made.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.

I have been saying this for the last few weeks, but this spreadsheet has become less valuable as the season progresses.  But it is still worth having a look.  Below is a screenshot of a 0% future value weighted sheet and a 50% future value weight.

When we look at no future value, the teams with the greatest chance to win are always the best plays.

Like last week, Dallas and Miami are the top two teams this week.  Few had a chance to take them last week, and even fewer will have them this week.  I do not want to spend too much time on either because of this, but if you still have them available, now would be a good time to take either.  Of the two, Dallas has the least amount of future value.  Some of you are in a pool that started mid-season and may have both available.  Dallas is the better play this week because Miami will be a big favorite for the next three weeks.

Let’s look at the most popular teams being taken this week because these are the teams most people have available to them.

Tampa Bay is being taken by the most people in pools as of this writing.  You likely have the Bucs available to you.  The question becomes, do you want to take them as the highest taken team this week?  They are attractive because this is likely the last time you want to take them this year.  They may only be favored again in week 18 at the same Carolina team they get at home this week.  With two other teams being taken at over 20% each you are not in a terrible spot by taking the Bucs here.  You can easily pick up on the field if things break right for you.  Of course, much of your decision will be based on how many are left in your pool and who you have available.

Jacksonville is currently being taken by the 2nd most people in pools.  In my pool, which has been double picks for the last few weeks, only 3 of the 23 left can take Jacksonville.  But in pools that have been single picks every week, many of you will have the Jaguars as an option.  They are currently the 3rd most likely to win this week at home against Cincinnati.  This is not a spot where you likely targeted the Jags a few weeks ago, but the NFL is constantly changing with injuries, making projecting too many weeks out in Survivor pools an exercise in futility.  Jacksonville will not be a strong play again until week 17 against Carolina.  Depending on your pool, you may not get to week 17, so Jacksonville is a strong pick this week.

The team being taken right behind Jacksonville is Pittsburgh.  The Steelers have a 69% chance to win against Arizona at home this week.  The thing with the Steelers is they have an even better matchup next week at home for New England.  If the Saints are available, you can use them in week 14 against Carolina and take Pittsburgh this week.  Let’s assume you have a choice between Jacksonville and Pittsburgh this week and have New Orleans available for next week.  Your options would be Pittsburgh/New Orleans or Jacksonville/Pittsburgh.  If Pitt is 69% and Jags are 78% this week, with New Orleans 71% next week and Pittsburgh 71% next week, we can multiply the combinations to determine our probability of winning the next two weeks.  Pitt/NO = 69%*71% = 49% while Jags/Pitt = 78%*71% = 55.4%.  It is not a major difference, but you do have a better road in the next two weeks with Jags/Pitt, and you will have some leverage.

Hedging is becoming an option as you increase your equity and lessen the time left on the season.  Refer back to last week’s article on my thoughts on hedging.  The Jags play on Monday Night Football, making them a much more attractive option.  You will have more information going into that game to make a good determination as to whether you should hedge and for how much.  Hedging is part science and part art.  The more information you have the better your hedge will be.

Keep an eye on the spreads as this may change your picks.  Good luck and I hope to you back here next week!