Circa Survivor Week 14 By The Numbers

We had another week of turmoil in the NFL Survivor streets.  Jacksonville and Pittsburgh combined for over 50% of entries being eliminated.  Circa went from 80 to 30 entries.  That pool started with 9,267.  My buddy Sully joins my mom in becoming the second person in my inner circle to take down a Survivor pool this year. He won with Tampa Bay and needed the other 2 participants to lose with Jacksonville on Monday night.  This makes the 3rd win in the last ten years for him.  I may have to get him to write this article next season!

In the large pool I am a participant in, we started with over 8000 and have had double picks for the last few weeks.  Here is the screenshot of the road my lone surviving entry has taken.

As you can see, a lot of luck is involved in making it this far.  If I had had Jacksonville available, I would have taken them with one of my picks last week.  With just 15 entries left in that pool and double-picks the rest of the way, it can end any of these weeks.  This week I have some decent options considering how few teams I have to pick from.  We will go over all of that in a second.

I usually post screenshots of my spreadsheet, but by week 14, the sheet is not useful.  Early in the season, we are, of course, trying to survive, but what we are trying to do is use some game theory to help us navigate our pools.  We pick our spots to be contrarian when they make sense and don’t try to be contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.  We also go chalky when the situation calls for it.  That is especially true in small pools.  We want others to make mistakes while we take the optimal route.  When we get down to the end, we may get off the optimal to give us a shot to scoop the pot.

We are in that situation in most pools now.  Writing an article for Survivor Pool advice for the masses is difficult most weeks but becomes nearly impossible as we reach the end.  You will want to know how many are left in your pool and who they have left to take before determining the best choice for you.  You also need to look at your hedging options.  If you were looking for poker advice and asked me if you should call a $100 bet on the flop when you have a flush draw, that would be impossible to answer with the information given.  I would need to know what the stakes are, the relative stack sizes, the pot size, your position at the table, your opponent’s range, what exact cards are on the board, the cards you hold, etc.  The more information we have, the better the advice can be.  If you want to talk your particular pool over, feel free to contact me on X (formerly Twitter) @statsational.

Green Bay is the team being taken by 20% of pool entrants for week 14.  Many have GB available to them because there have not been a lot of spots you would have wanted to take earlier in the season.  It is also a game many of you did not plan on taking 3 or 4 weeks ago, but as I always say, we never fully know how things will shake out in the NFL.  The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite at the Giants on Monday Night Football.  So, as you know, the point spread determines the team’s chances of winning.  A lot of people shy away from road teams or divisional matchups.  There is no difference in the chances of a road favorite of 6-8 points in winning as in a home team of a comparable line.  In fact, road teams have done slightly better in this situation over the last twenty seasons.  Road teams are 259-83-1 as a 6-8 pt favorite straight up for a 75.7% win rate, while home teams are 551-218-3 for a 71.7% win rate.  That win disparity shows that the public overvalues home-field advantage.  Many of you will look at this and still shy away from road teams because it just feels like that is correct, even when seeing the data.

The one big advantage to taking Green Bay this week is the fact that it is a MNF game.  That means you will have more information going into that game than you do right now.  There is a chance that the game will determine if you win your pool.  Just like my buddy Sully on Monday night last week.  This means a better hedging situation than if you take an early Sunday game.  This makes Green Bay the best option on the board for most people this week.

We get another road favorite as the second-most-taken team in week 14.  Houston will play in the same building as Green Bay a day prior and take on the Jets.  Their win probability is lower than Green Bay.  I determine that by looking at the mid point of the best money lines available.  I use The Sharp App ( I am a founder of the app) to get my lines.

As things currently stand, the midpoint of the GB game moneyline is -280, which translates to a 73.6% win probability.  Houston has a moneyline midpoint of -222.5 which translates to a 69% win probability.  It is not a huge difference, but when you factor in the better hedge opportunity, then Green Bay becomes the better option.

But what if you have 4 left in your pool and are confident that your 3 opponents will have Green Bay?  If you have Houston available does it make sense to be the lone Houston?  I think it does.  Let’s try and quantify it.

Let’s say 4 people are playing for $10,000.  We have $2500 in equity each.  Assume that the rules state if we all lose, we continue to next week.  If we all take Green Bay then we have no risk this week.  Taking GB will be a smart option if you have a team available next week that will be a much bigger favorite than any team your opponents have available.  Assuming that is not the case and you are all in a similar situation next week, let’s look at how to determine whether we take Houston (or another team) instead of GB this week.

Possible outcomes

1. Houston and Green Bay Win
2. Houston Loses and GB Wins
3. Houston Wins and GB Loses
4. Both Houston and GB lose

We need to figure out the probability of each scenario happening.  I am leaving out ties in these scenarios but there is a tiny tie percentage and depending on your league rules ties can be considered a win or a loss.

Hou & GB win = .69*.736 =50.8%
Hou L & GB W = .31*.736 = 22.8%
Hou W & GB L = .69*.264 = 18.2%
Hou L & GB L = .31*.264 = 8.2%

We can now do an expected value calculation based on these probabilities.

The entry fee was $100 in our made up pool.

Scenario 1 we have $2500 equity
Scenario 2 we lose $100
Scenario 3 we win $10000
Scenario 4 we have $2500 equity

If we take Houston, the Expected Value is
$2500*50.8% – 100*22.8% + $10,000*18.2% + $2500*8.2%
EV = $3272.2

If we take Green Bay, our EV is
$2500 because we will maintain our $2500 in equity in every scenario.

This is a basic calculation, and you are likely in a more complex situation in your pool.  But the calculations become easier the deeper we get with the fewer opponents we have left.  If you want to figure out what win% would be the lowest we should go to want to be out on our own, assuming every other opponent was on Green Bay, then we would figure out at what percentage we return an EV of $2500.
x is the win rate to break even
.736x(2500)+.736(1-x)(-100)+.264x(10000)+.264(1-x)(2500) = 2500

I will spare you the calculation, but the answer is 49.75%. That means taking any favorite against multiple opponents who are all on a team with a 73.6% chance of winning is a smart play IF you know you will not have a better option next week to do something similar, AND you know all of your opponents will be on the same team.  The more opponents on that same team the weaker the team you fade them with needs to be.  This should be obvious, but I wanted to show the math behind it.  Now, when you get to a scenario where it is heads up, you only have an advantage if you have the team with the higher win probability.  You will always want to counterfeit your opponent if the opponent is on the highest win-probability team you have left at your disposal.  This means looking out at least the following week to ensure you take the most optimal line.  Let them take a line that is sub-optimal to you.  This gives you the greatest chance of winning.   But against multiple opponents, it becomes more advantageous to avoid the optimal line IF you know everyone else will be on the optimal line.

I hope that makes some sense.  There are other teams being taken by many in pools this week.  New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Baltimore are all 10-15% on survivorgrid.com.  You will really need to watch the line moves up until your pool locks to make the best determination as to which way you want to go this week.  Please feel free to hit me up on X if you want to go over your pool.

Good luck, and I hope to see you back here next week!