Circa Survivor: Week 16 and 10 entries remain

With only 25% of entrants being eliminated last week, there is a good chance you survived and are inching closer to the big payday.  In Circa, 3 were eliminated, putting the pool at just 10 remaining.

I wrote a lot about the game theory last week when you are down to this few.  Fading the most popular pick if you know all of your opponents are on that pick is almost always the +EV play.  You can look back at previous articles for the math.  When heads up we want to just play as optimal as possible.  With a few weeks remaining, it becomes easier to figure out the most optimal play.  You also need to look at what each of your opponents has left to pick to help in your decision.

This week survivorgrid.com is showing Philadelphia as the most taken team at 31%.  Not many will have the Eagles, so if you have them as an option, they would be a great pick in just about every pool.  Getting a double-digit favorite in week 16 is rare.  Most others will be on a team with a less likely chance of winning.  It gives you the ability to be a contrarian with the best pick on the board.  For similar reasons, they become the best play in head-to-head pools as well because they will be the most optimal.

Denver is the next most chosen team at 24.4%.  Many entries will have Denver to take.  You will need to look over your pool and try and determine how many will be on Denver.  The more entries taking Denver the better the play will be on another team.  As you get closer to a head-to-head situation, Denver becomes the stronger play.  That is assuming they remain the highest favorite you can take at the time of your pool lock.

There are two other large favorites that are garnering some interest from those fortunate enough to be alive with them still available.  Buffalo is being taken by 11% of pools as a -11.5 favorite, while Kansas City is a double-digit favorite against the Raiders and is seeing 5% of pools take them.  Both of these teams fall into the same category as Philadelphia.  You are almost certainly taking them if they are available to you in every format.

The Packers are getting 14% of the pools look their way.  They knocked a lot of people out two weeks ago so many survivors still have them left.  Depending on what you have left you may have to make a call that Green Bay is the better fade the chalk play than any other fade you have for next week, although there should be some teams available to you next week.

Keep these things in mind the rest of the way

– Head to head we want the most optimal path possible.  To find that path look at your remaining teams and figure out which combo the next 3 weeks gives the highest probability of hitting.  I gave you the math on this last week, but you just have to multiply the implied win % of each pick to get your probability of all winning.
– The more entries left in the pool the more EV you have by going against the crowd.
– Going against the crowd does not mean you have to do that every week.  You may have a better pick that goes against the rest of your pool next week and want to go with the chalk this week in order to get that leverage next week.  For instance, if your opponents can all take Jacksonville next week and you cannot you may want to save the Eagles this week and go with the chalk Denver pick in order to be able to fade Jacksonville with Philadelphia next week.  Your next best option might be Denver in week 17, who will be less of a favorite than Jacksonville.
– Hedging will be important for most of you.  I like to hedge with the spread to try and catch a middle.  The later the game you pick the more information you will have for your hedge bet.

It is impossible to give specific advice to each of you without seeing exactly who you have left and what your opponents have left.  Just use these notes or hit me up on X @statsational, and I can help guide you.

Good luck, and I hope to see you back here next week!