Circa Survivor Week 17 – 4 Entries Remain – Who will they pick?

With just two weeks left in the regular season most pools are either finished or down to very few remaining players.  In Circa there are 4 entries remaining.  I thought it would be good to look at that pool and see if you can use some of that analysis in your pool.

The total pot is $9,267,000.  If we do not factor in the teams available to each participant, the equity for each is $2,316,750.  Upon a closer look, we see Circus Master has an advantage this week because he can take Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite while the best his opponents can take is Denver as a 5.5-point favorite.  This translates into a 76% chance Cleveland wins their game and a 68.5% chance Denver wins its game.

If Circus Master takes Cleveland and his opponents all take Denver, the probability of him winning the pool this week is 76% * 31.5% = 23.9%.

The only other entrant who can guarantee themselves the possibility of winning the pool on their own this week is Jax Jags if we assume Circus does not take Chicago.  If Jax Jags goes with Chicago and CIrcus takes Cleveland while the other two take Denver the math looks like this for Jax Jags.

Probability of Chicago winning = 59.6%
Probability of Cleveland losing = 24%
Probability of Denver losing = 31.5%

Multiply all of these together and you get a 4.5% chance Jax Jags can scoop this week with a pick on Chicago.

What would you do in each of these player’s shoes?

Circus Master has to take the shot with the best team on the board this week.  He has a legitimate chance of taking down the entire pot this week.  If a deal were discussed, he would be wise to negotiate a larger share for himself than the others.  In Circa, deals can be cut, but they happen outside the pool.  The pool itself must be seen to its completion.  If no deal is agreed upon this week, then the edge becomes minimal next week, as they will all be on similar teams.  Circus has to take Cleveland this week and give himself a shot to win it all.  I think he has the easiest decision in the pool.  If you find yourself in a spot where you are the only one who can take a team in your pool, and they have a higher probability of winning than the available teams of your opponents, then you have to take them.  As the probability lowers, so does your chance of a scoop.  If you know all of your opponents will be on a team like Denver then you will have an advantage by moving off Denver and taking a weaker team.  If someone picks a team other than Denver, it makes your pivot much weaker and likely a negative EV play.

Indiana Jet and LAJonesr will almost certainly want to take Denver.  They do not have a great leverage play because getting off of Denver may get them on a team nobody else is on, but it will take multiple teams losing along with their team winning in order to ship it this week.  The more prudent play for them will be to go with the most likely team they have left, which is Denver, and hope others try to be cute and get off of Denver.

We did the math on the probability of Jax Jags scooping this week if they take Chicago.  Let’s figure out the EV based on the numbers we talked about earlier.

We will assume Circus takes Cleveland with Indiana and LA on Denver.

Cleveland wins Denver wins Chicago wins = 31%
Cleveland wins Denver loses Chicago loses = 9.7%
Cleveland wins Denver wins Chicago loses = 21.1%
Cleveland wins Denver loses Chicago wins = 14.2%
Cleveland loses Denver wins Chicago wins = 9.7%
Cleveland loses Denver loses Chicago loses = 3%
Cleveland loses Denver wins Chicago loses = 6.7%
Cleveland loses Denver loses Chicago wins = 4.5%

The EV based on on our assumptions for Jax Jags if he goes with Chicago is $2,161,233.  This is calculated by multiplying the probability in each scenario with the monetary result.  For example there is a 31% chance that all 3 win.  This would give you the same equity as you have now which is $2,316,750.  You multiply that by the 31% then add up the value for each scenario.

If they decide to join the other 2 on Denver then the EV calc becomes

Cleveland wins Denver Wins 52%
Cleveland loses Denver wins 24%
Cleveland wins Denver loses 16.4%
Cleveland loses Denver loses 7.6%

The EV for Jax Jags taking Denver drops to $1,888,077 if the other 2 also take Denver.  This is obviously the same EV for the other two so if they knew the other were going to take Denver then they would be wise to get off of Denver.  Obviously, this is impossible to know for sure, and how you hedge, as well as how much you are capable of hedging, will play into the equation.

I just wanted to show you guys how to calculate your EV in each scenario for your pool to see what may be the best plan of attack.

Best of luck this week.  Let’s hope for a prosperous new year!