Nolan Dalla’s Survivor Week 1 Pick

Kickoff Time!

The season kicks off this week with NFL Week #1.

Once the final numbers are announced for the Circa survivor contest, we’ll post that official information about entries and payouts here at SurvivorSweat.com.

However, for now, all that concerns me is surviving Week #1.  I just need to pick one team to win the game.  Sounds easy, but it’s not always like it seems.

My strategy: It’s critical to avoid so-called “trap” situations. That means stepping into a trap, and getting knocked out of the contest early.  For instance, last season many Circa contestants (and other players in survivor pools) picked the San Francisco 49ers versus the Chicago Bears in the season opener.  That looked like an obvious play, since San Francisco was the far superior team.  Unfortunately for the 49ers and their backers, the big favorites collapsed in the second half of the game in a rainstorm and ended up losing outright 19-10.  A whopping 30 percent of the Circa survivor contest entrants were eliminated in the first week!  Hence, this was what we call a “trap” situation.  Avoid traps!

There were at least three red flags on that matchup.  I think they teach us important lessons coming into this season:

1. First, the 49ers were road favorites.  Home field advantage has diminished in recent years.  Nonetheless, there was no way the Chicago Bears wouldn’t be up emotionally for their home opener.  That was the first mistake.

1. Second, the 49ers started a new (unproven) quarterback, Trey Lance.  Backing new quarterbacks is always risky because we don’t know how they’ll perform. So, that was mistake number two.  

1. Finally, the game was played in a heavy rainstorm.  Adverse weather conditions can be a randoming factor.  In other words, advantages are neutralized.  Rain and mud gives running teams an edge, and the Bears came into that game with perhaps the best rushing quarterback in the league, Justin Fields.

It’s easy to see the mistake of betting the 49ers now, a year later.  The key takeaway is not to commit the same kind of mistake again.

Narrowing Down This Week’s Choices

Let’s start with the entire card of possibilities.

Step 1: I’m throwing out all the games with low pointspreads.  Those games are expected to be close, so there’s no reason to take wild risks in the first week.  I also have no interest in division rivalries.  Those games also tend to be closer than normal, and can sometimes be wildly unpredictable.  Moreover, I’m tossing out road favorites.  Sometimes, I’ll be a road favorite.  But I won’t do it on Week #1.  

This leaves us with the following potential picks:  Baltimore; Washington; Kansas City; Minnesota; Seattle  Each of those teams are favored by 6 points or more.

I’m tossing out Seattle which plays the L.A. Rams.  Seattle enjoyed a better season than many were expecting in 2022, while the Rams (losers of the previous Super Bowl) suffered a nightmare season loaded with injuries.  Linesmakers might be overreacting a bit to last season’s results.  And, the Rams still have the nucleus of a good team, capable of an upset.  Finally, this is a division rivalry.  I have no interest in picking Seattle, even though they are likely to win their home opener.

I’m also tossing out Kansas City, which opens their season at home against Detroit on Thursday night (the result of that game might be known by the time you read this).  Many football bettors are picking the Lions to win the NFC North division and make the playoffs, which would be a longtime coming for a franchise that’s been terrible for decades.  It might be too big of a task to ask Detroit to win at Kansas City in the opener.  But, it could happen.  Let’s remember that despite winning the Super Bowl, the Chiefs were just 9-11 against-the-spread last season from start to finish.  While the spread doesn’t matter in survivor contests, it’s still an omen that Kansas has underperformed slightly according to market projections.  

Minnesota might be the pick on some survivor pools, since they’re playing Tampa Bay, which was one of the NFL’s most disappointing teams last season. What scares me about the Vikings, besides being a mediocre team, is they won a ridiculous number of close games, going 11-0 in one-score finals in 2022.  Their losses were by an average of 22 points.  So, this team got every break last year and I don’t see where they’ve improved during the offseason.  Sure, Minnesota should win it.  But I don’t know why anyone would pick them this week given they have Arizona, Indianapolis, and Chicago (twice) on their schedule later this season. 

Baltimore hosts Houston this week. The Ravens are the biggest favorite of any team, currently laying -9.5 at Circa. Baltimore deserves to be a big favorite and this could be a huge year for QB Lamar Jackson, who is playing under a new huge contract. However, I’m wary of the Texans, who might be slightly underrated in betting markets. Even though Houston went 3-13-1 last season, they closed strongly, as 4 of their last five games were close and within one score. Hence, the team played pretty well down the stretch. I also presume there will be other spots this season when Baltimore is a better team to pick.  

This leaves me with my best pick for Week #1 (see below).

My Final Decision

I’m picking the Washington Commanders as my Week #1 survivor team.

At Circa, Washington is listed as 7-point favorites vs. Cardinals. Most analysts side with Washington to win its home opener. Arizona enters the 2023 regular season with rock bottom expectations. The Cardinals’ projected win total is only 4.5 games, the lowest of any team. 

Confidence in Arizona plummeted even further last week when rookie head coach Jonathan Gannon announced veteran backup quarterback Colt McCoy had been cut. That likely means Joshua Dobbs is likely to start for the injured Kyler Murray.  This is Gannon’s seventh season in the backup role, and he didn’t even throw his first touchdown pass until 2022 as he’s struggled to stay on the roster and has primarily been a third-stringer during his unspectacular career. The Commanders’ defense ranked 7th in points allowed last year.  They also had the league’s best third-down defense, while Arizona had the 26th-ranked third-down offense, even with versatile Murray as the starter.  With a new head coach, new offensive and defensive coordinator, an unproven quarterback, and a defense that ranked 31st in the NFL last season in points allowed, this is a total rebuilding year for the Cardinals. 

Meanwhile, Washington did manage to stay competitive most of last season, finishing with an 8-8-1 record. The Commanders also shed their previous owner, who had long been a distraction. Entering a new season with a fresh outlook, this is probably head coach Ron Rivera’s last chance to prove he’s the right fit with Washington, and throughout his career many have underestimated his coaching abilities. The bottom line is — Washington is favored by a touchdown for very valid reasons. The total is also low for a reason. Points could be hard to come by. Still, Washington’s defense is massively underrated, finishing 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed last season. That’s even more of an indication that Cardinals are likely to struggle.

Contrarians (correctly) will point out that a Cardinals’ upset could knock out half the survivor field. That’s a valid point and one reason I’m picking other teams in my multiple survivor entries. Nonetheless, even with the “any given Sunday” principle that anything can happen in the NFL, Washington does seem like the best bet on the board to win the game.

Finally, there’s a strategic component to this pick.  It’s important to use the marginal teams when we can.  If we do survive into midseason, we want good teams as survivor candidates.  So, it’s wise to conserve the best teams for later and use the weaker teams when we can.  Washington is the perfect example of that principle, in action.

Coming Soon:

A look back at the NFL’s first week, with results and a report from the Circa sportsbook.  Plus, an early look ahead to NFL Week #2.