Featured John Alesia Strategy Weekly Analysis

Circa Survivor 2024 – Week 2: Moving Past the Week 1 Carnage

nick@survivorsweat.com

September 12, 2024
5 min read

By John Alesia

It was a wild Week 1 in survivor pools nationwide, including the Circa Survivor Pool. The Bengals’ stunning loss to the Patriots was the biggest story of the week, as 34.3% of the Circa participants saw their entries eliminated when Cincinnati fell 16-10. But the Bengals weren’t the only favorites to fall, as Atlanta and Chicago also suffered upset losses, adding to the carnage.

In total, a whopping 5,518 entries were eliminated in Week 1, including 45 who failed to make a pick. That’s a staggering 39% of the original 14,206 entries, leaving just 8,688 participants still in the running for the top prize. As one of the remaining entries, I’m breathing a sigh of relief after my Seattle pick came through. But with the field already significantly thinned, the competition is only going to get fiercer from here. In this article, I’ll provide guidance on navigating the challenges of Week 2.

Key:

Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
# Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
Threshold: This is new for 2024. The calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Now, let’s take a look at my survivor pool spreadsheet, which helps me make informed decisions about which teams to pick. When I account for zero future value, the biggest favorite becomes the best choice. This week, that team is Baltimore, with an 81% chance to win their game against Las Vegas. The next best choice is currently Detroit, with a nearly 75% chance to win their game against Tampa. However, it’s worth noting that Houston (74%), Philadelphia, Dallas, and the LA Chargers (all around 72%) are not far behind. As always, it’s crucial to keep an eye on line movements right up until your pool locks to get the latest information.

In very small pools, Baltimore is a fine play, but it’s worth considering the pick percentage. According to survivorgrid.com, Baltimore is currently getting 32.4% of all picks. If we look at the threshold number on Baltimore, which is 74%, it means that you should only fade Baltimore if you can use a team with a 74% chance to win or better. However, this calculation doesn’t take future value into account. In a small pool where you’re not worried about future value, you could take Detroit and be in a great position to win the pool if they win and Baltimore loses. The same could be said for any of the teams close to the 74% threshold, especially those with less future value than Baltimore and Detroit, such as Houston and possibly the Chargers. As always, be sure to follow the line movement to make the most informed decision.

When we adjust the spreadsheet to give a 25% weight to future value, the rankings shift slightly. Baltimore remains the top choice, but Houston jumps up to the second spot, thanks to their relatively low future value compared to Detroit. The Chargers also become a more attractive option, as they lack the future value of some of the other top teams this week. For me, Houston is a strong play in almost all formats. They’re currently only getting 9% of the picks on survivorgrid.com, and they’re not a team you’ll need to take in the foreseeable future. This makes them a great value play. The Chargers are in a similar situation, but they’re getting 21% of the picks, which gives us less leverage against the field. According to the spreadsheet, the threshold for fading the Chargers is 66.6%, which means that over half of the favorites would be a good alternative. However, it’s worth noting that this calculation doesn’t take future value into account, so we should bump that number up slightly to get a more accurate picture.

Finally, let’s examine the 100% future value weight, a setting I prefer for larger pools and one that I scrutinize closely for my Circa pick. As expected, Houston and the Chargers emerge as the top two options. With only one pick to make, Houston appears to be a strong choice, currently attracting just 9% of the picks. However, it’s worth noting that the dynamics in the Circa pool may differ, particularly with Baltimore’s Christmas Day matchup looming. While Christmas is still a ways off, it’s a consideration that makes sense to take into account this week, and it may be wise to hold off on Baltimore for now. Nevertheless, a significant portion of the pool will likely still opt for the Ravens. This is relevant because if Baltimore’s pick percentage is lower in the Circa pool, some of that percentage may shift to Houston, potentially increasing their pick percentage above 9%. To get the most accurate information, it’s essential to monitor not only line moves but also the pick percentage on Survivor Grid as the week progresses. In fact, my analysis often changes by Saturday due to significant line moves or sudden shifts in pick percentage, so it’s crucial to stay vigilant and adapt to any new information that becomes available.