Expect The Unexpected By John Alesia

Week 5 in the NFL Survivor pools continued the wild ride we’ve seen all season. Circa’s pool took a massive hit, with the top two picks – Seattle and San Francisco – both going down in flames.

When the dust settled, we were looking at over half the entries getting knocked out. That’s right, more than 50% of hopefuls saw their dreams crushed in a single week. Now, we’re down to just 221 survivors still in the hunt for that juicy $14.266 million prize.

This season’s been anything but predictable, and it’s clear that even the “safe” picks aren’t so safe anymore. It’s got everyone second-guessing their strategies and wondering what Week 6 has in store for us. One thing’s for sure – in this Survivor pool, expect the unexpected.

If you are still alive in your pool or you have started a new one, you have come to the right place.  I will break down what I see this week and provide some strategies to help you in your pool.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This is new for 2024. The calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

I always kick things off by checking my trusty spreadsheet, set at 0% for future value. This gives us a view of which teams have the best shot at winning their games based on the current lines.

This week, Philadelphia is sitting at the top of the probability pile. And wouldn’t you know it, they’re also the darling of pool participants, with over 35% of entries projected to pick them on Survivor Grid. It’s funny how things change—a couple of weeks ago, we might not have given this game a second glance. But with Cleveland looking about as bad as they can this season, the Eagles have become the hot ticket.

Coming in at number two on the popularity contest is Houston, hitting the road to take on New England. The Texans are showing a 74% chance to win, and they’ve caught the eye of about 22% of entries. Most folks probably still have Philly in their back pocket, but some may have taken Houston in a previous week.

For those of you in smaller pools, I usually wave the “go with the best chance to win” flag. that strategy has not worked out well so far this season, but that doesn’t mean it’s the wrong play. If you’re down to just a handful of entries, you want the others to make the sub-optimal play, not you.

Now, let’s talk about that threshold column – this is most important for the small pool crowd.  Take Philly, for instance. Their threshold is still high because their win percentage is flirting with 80%. So, if you’re in a pool of 10, and you think  3 or 4 will be riding the Eagles, you should only consider jumping ship for a team with a win percentage north of 70%. Remember, the more entries you think will be on the popular pick, the lower their threshold, which means you can pick a weaker team to gain leverage.

In small pools, I’d advise only looking a week or two ahead. If you are worried about saving a team for five or six weeks from now, that is a foolish game to play. Your pool is unlikely to last that long, and even if it does with injuries, you never know what the future games will look like from a win percentage standpoint.

Atlanta is the team seeing the third most attention on Survivor Grid.  If you are down to a few people in your pool you have to consider Atlanta because of their hedge value.  If your opponents take other teams and leave you solo in Atlanta, there is a good chance your opponent’s games will be completed before Atlanta plays.  This gives you the ability to hedge, especially if your opponents lose with their picks.

Let’s switch gears and take a look at our spreadsheet with 50% future value factored in. Surprisingly, the landscape doesn’t shift too dramatically from our 0% view. Why? Well, our top two contenders, Philadelphia and Houston, are sitting in the middle of the pack when it comes to future value.

Remember when we all thought Philadelphia’s matchup against the Giants next week would be a great pick? Well, it is not as appealing right now. And that Week 11 home game against Washington?  The Commanders may be the better team by the time we get to that game.   It’s not until Week 14, when the Eagles host Carolina, that we see Philly as a clear favorite again.

As for Houston, we’re probably not circling them on our calendars until Week 12 when they host Tennessee. That’s a bit of a ways away the way this pool has been going.

Green Bay is popping up as our third choice when we factor in 50% future value. This is because our opportunities to use them down the line are about are rare. Take a look at the Packers’ schedule for the rest of the season, and you’ll see what I mean. I am not sure we will want to take them again after this week.

Finally let’s look at the sheet with 100% future value. Philadelphia is still sitting at the top of our list. It’s no wonder they’re getting the attention they are in all formats. They’re not only the team with the highest probability to win, but they are a team with limited opportunities to take them again.

Green Bay is now our second choice. With a 68.5% chance to win and that limited future value we chatted about, they look a bit more appealing in these large pool formats.

Teams like Pittsburgh and the Chargers are suddenly popping up on our radar. Why? Well, they’re very unlikely to be a team you will want to take in the future.  I still prefer the Packers if you are looking to make a major fade play.  Green Bay offers the same leverage potential with a higher chance of winning.

Let’s not forget about Baltimore, though. They’re the stealthy pick– not showing up on our 100% value sheet. Most folks are saving the Ravens for future weeks, which is why they’re flying under the radar now. In a large pool, you might want to follow suit and keep them in your back pocket. But you could take them this week as a contrarian play, using them at very low ownership.

This play makes more sense if you’ve already used teams with little future value.  You can afford to make a bold move that others can’t. By taking one of the stronger teams when most won’t, you’re zigging while others zag, potentially giving you a leg up on the competition.  You would have a lot more equity than your opponents coming in this week, so spending some of that equity on a team like Baltimore could be a good way to go.

Remember, in Survivor pools, sometimes it’s about being different in the right spots. It’s a delicate balance between playing it safe and taking calculated risks. So, whether you’re eyeing Philadelphia for their all-around appeal, considering Green Bay as your wild card, or thinking about a sneaky Baltimore play, make sure your strategy fits your pool size and your current standing.

Ultimately, you have to decide how you will play your pool.  Hopefully, you will be around for many weeks with me as we try and survive!

-John