Future Value Considerations By John Alesia

The calm waters of NFL Survivor Pools finally saw some turbulence in Week 9, ending a three-week stretch where big favorites had consistently delivered. The New Orleans Saints, who were the second-most popular choice in the Circa pool with 40 selections, fell to Carolina in a stunning upset. This loss trimmed the Circa pool down to 151 entries still competing for the massive prize. The Saints were a pick I liked in mid to large pools, offering a strong 75% win probability combined with limited future value. This appeal was evident in the decision-making of sharp Circa contestants, who made New Orleans their second-most popular selection, while the team ranked as only the fourth choice in pools nationwide.

As we turn our attention to Week 10, we’re faced with another set of challenging decisions. The spreadsheet data shows several intriguing options with varying degrees of win probability and future value considerations.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This is new for 2024. The calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Looking at our spreadsheet with Future Value set to 0, which primarily targets smaller pools, we find Kansas City at the top with a 78.49% win probability. Some participants in smaller pools may have already used KC this past Monday Night for hedging purposes – a strategy that paid off nicely as KC won without covering the spread. However, even with KC available in head-to-head situations, there’s a compelling argument to hold them back given their Week 12 matchup against Carolina. While looking that far ahead typically isn’t advised in small pools, the Los Angeles Chargers present an attractive alternative this week with only a 1% lower win probability (77.58%) as of Wednesday morning. This strategy becomes particularly appealing if your opponent selects KC, as you sacrifice minimal equity this week while gaining significant advantage for Week 12.

The threshold column becomes crucial in our decision-making process for pools with slightly more participants remaining. KC’s high threshold of 75.7% means we need a strong justification to fade them. But I think we need to disregard that this week.  Even in a scenario with 10 participants remaining, taking KC would only make sense if you could guarantee everyone else would select the Chargers – an unlikely scenario. This week presents an unusual strategic puzzle due to KC’s exceptionally strong win probability in Week 12. Next week might offer a better opportunity to go against the consensus than this week, suggesting patience could be the optimal approach.

When we adjust our spreadsheet to incorporate 25% Future Value, targeting pools that may extend several weeks but not necessarily to season’s end, the top selections remain similar to our 0% FV analysis. However, some subtle but important shifts emerge. The Los Angeles Chargers (77.58% win probability) present as a marginally better play than Kansas City (78.49%) in this scenario, despite KC’s slightly higher win probability.

A notable change occurs in the third position, where the Chicago Bears replace Philadelphia as a viable option. This week is likely the Bears best opportunity all season, and possibly their only time as favorites for the remainder of the year. While selecting the Bears (70.59% win probability) requires sacrificing some win probability compared to the top choices, it offers significant leverage against the field, particularly with 34.1% of entries concentrated on the Chargers. This type of contrarian play becomes more viable in medium-sized pools where differentiation starts to matter and where you may have to survive deeper into the season.

When we adjust our spreadsheet to 100% Future Value, targeting larger pools expected to go the full 18 weeks, the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Chargers emerge as our top two options. The Chargers’ widespread popularity this week (34.1% of picks) becomes understandable when we consider their strong position across all formats – they offer the second-highest win probability (77.58%) while having limited future utility. This combination makes them an attractive choice regardless of pool size.

The Bears, despite their lower win probability (70.59%), present compelling value in larger pools. Given this might be their only appearance as a favorite for the remainder of the season, lower win probability becomes more palatable. With most entries concentrated on the Chargers, the Bears offer significant leverage potential against the field.

The New York Giants have attracted some attention as a contrarian play against Carolina, drawing 5% of pool entries, according to Survivor Grid. However, with their 63.30% win probability, they should only be considered in very large pools where you need significant chaos at the top to build equity. This high-risk strategy requires the favorites to falter while successfully navigating a much riskier selection.

Ultimately, you have to decide how you will play your pool.  Hopefully, you will be around for many weeks with me as we try and survive!

-John