Game Theory And Leverage By John Alesia

The steady sailing in NFL Survivor Pools continued through Week 7, as another calm weekend saw minimal eliminations. In the high-stakes Circa Survivor pool, just 2 entries were knocked out, leaving 214 contestants still in the hunt for the massive $14.2 million prize pool. This marks the second consecutive week of relative tranquility, a stark contrast to the chaos that defined the early weeks of the season.

Week 8 presents an interesting landscape with multiple heavy favorites on the slate, giving survivors plenty of viable options to consider. As we navigate through these choices, we’ll need to carefully weigh not just win probabilities, but also future value and pool dynamics to make the optimal selection. With so many strong favorites available, this week’s strategy might hinge more on game theory and leverage than pure survival odds.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This is new for 2024. The calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

When we examine our spreadsheet with Future Value set to 0, the Detroit Lions emerge as Week 8’s biggest favorite with an impressive 84% win probability. Given that Detroit hasn’t been widely used in previous weeks, they’re attracting significant attention, with Survivor Grid projecting 35% of entries selecting them this week. For pools with few remaining participants, where looking beyond a week or two becomes less critical, Detroit presents as the optimal choice. While they could be valuable in Week 11 against Jacksonville, smaller pool participants should focus on the immediate advantage of taking the week’s biggest favorite, hoping others overthink their selections and eliminate themselves. The Lions won’t be viable options for the next two weeks, further supporting their use this week in smaller pools.

Kansas City Chiefs stand as the week’s second-strongest favorite with an 81% win probability against Las Vegas. However, their significant future value, including potential use in the next two weeks has limited their selection to just 4% of pools. In Circa, Kansas City has been a team most players have wanted to save for the forced Thanksgiving pick as they host the Raiders and should be a double-digit favorite.  While their late afternoon Sunday kickoff provides additional information for hedging purposes, they share this timing advantage with Denver. The Broncos, showing as a 79% favorite, are attracting 21% of pool entries. Denver’s matchup this week represents their best remaining opportunity of the season, making them an attractive option even in smaller pools, especially considering the future utility of other top favorites.

Baltimore presents a similar win probability to Denver at nearly 80% and is being selected by 15% of pools. However, they will host Denver next week, where they’ll be favored, though not as heavily as Cincinnati hosting Las Vegas or Minnesota home for Indianapolis. This future consideration becomes particularly relevant when weighing Baltimore against other options this week.

As we approach the season’s latter half, we’ve adjusted our Future Value analysis to 25% (down from our previous 50%), reflecting the diminishing importance of saving teams. Even with this adjustment, Detroit maintains its position as the top selection. While Week 11 against Jacksonville presents their next viable opportunity, they could also be valuable in Week 12 at Indianapolis. However, that Week 12 slot has several strong alternatives – Kansas City faces Carolina on the road (particularly attractive for non-Circa pools not saving KC), and Houston hosts Tennessee. This array of options keeps Detroit in play for medium-sized pools this week.

Denver emerges as an increasingly attractive option, ranking second with 25% Future Value consideration. Their appeal stems from minimal future utility – their only notable remaining matchups are Week 12 at Las Vegas and Week 15 hosting Indianapolis – neither of which projects as strongly as this week’s opportunity. The Broncos offer valuable leverage against the field, as most participants gravitate toward Detroit. In fact, within the Circa pool specifically, Denver might attract more selections than Detroit seeing as that pool tends to be sharper than the average home pool. This contrarian positioning, combined with their strong win probability and limited future value, makes them particularly appealing for medium-sized pools looking to differentiate while maintaining solid win equity.

When we adjust our spreadsheet to 100% Future Value, targeting larger pools or those that have restarted, Denver maintains its position as the top selection. Their combination of strong win probability and minimal future utility continues to make them an attractive choice, particularly given the leverage they provide against the field. However, a new contender emerges in our analysis: the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Pittsburgh, with a 72.6% win probability and only 7% of pool entries selecting them, presents an intriguing option for very large pools. Their future value is limited, with Week 14’s home game against Cleveland being their only other notable opportunity – and even that matchup carries uncertainty given potential changes in Cleveland’s offense with Winston at the helm. Beyond that Week 14 contest, Pittsburgh likely won’t factor into our strategic planning for the remainder of the season. While this pick might make some uncomfortable, it represents a high-leverage play that could provide significant differentiation in large pools. The combination of solid win probability, minimal public backing, and limited future value makes the Steelers a defensible contrarian selection for those needing to separate themselves from the pack in larger pools.

Ultimately, you have to decide how you will play your pool.  Hopefully, you will be around for many weeks with me as we try and survive!

-John