Intriguing Strategic Puzzles by John Alesia

The relative calm in NFL Survivor Pools continued through Week 8, though with slightly more turbulence than the previous two weeks. The Circa Survivor pool saw 23 entries eliminated, bringing the field down to 191 contestants still vying for the massive $14.2 million prize. This marks the third consecutive week of relative stability, a welcome change from the early-season chaos that saw major favorites falling with shocking regularity.

As we enter Week 9, the landscape looks similar to last week, with multiple heavy favorites dotting the schedule. What makes this week particularly interesting is the presence of several strong teams that many participants have yet to use, leading to concentrated pick percentages on a few select options. This dynamic creates an intriguing strategic puzzle, where managing both win probability and pool leverage becomes crucial.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com2024 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Grid – Week 9 Survivor PicksHelping you gain an edge to win your NFL survivor, suicide, or knockout football pool.survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This is new for 2024. The calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Looking at our spreadsheet with Future Value set to 0, which is particularly relevant for smaller pools, Baltimore emerges as the week’s biggest favorite with a nearly 80% chance to win against Denver. The Ravens are currently being selected by 12% of entries, a relatively modest percentage given their strong win probability.  Despite Baltimore’s loss last week and Denver’s recent strong showing, the Ravens remain an excellent choice, particularly in head-to-head situations. Some participants may shy away from Baltimore due to recency bias, creating an opportunity for those willing to trust the numbers. With a nearly 80% win probability, Baltimore presents strong value, especially since opponents are likely to select teams with lower win probabilities. However, it’s crucial to monitor line movements throughout the week, as we saw last week when Denver’s odds shifted significantly to match Detroit’s by game time.

Close behind is Kansas City, showing a similar win probability at 79.7% against Tampa Bay, though they’re only being taken by 3.6% of pools.  Kansas City offers an intriguing option with their Monday night slot, providing valuable hedging opportunities as the week’s final game. While this timing advantage is appealing in head-to-head situations or pools with few remaining entries, the future value sacrifice may be too steep. Taking KC this week would likely force sub-optimal selections in the coming weeks, potentially negating the hedging advantage they offer in Week 9.

Philadelphia and Cincinnati form the next tier, both hovering around 76% win probability (75.73% and 75.87% respectively). These teams are drawing the heaviest concentration of picks at 33.8% and 34.9%, making them less attractive from a game theory perspective. The New Orleans Saints (75% win probability against Carolina) present an interesting alternative, being selected by just 5.6% of entries.

The Threshold column provides crucial strategic guidance – we should only consider fading Baltimore (77.8% threshold) or KC (79.1% threshold) if taking the other. In pools with roughly 10 remaining entries where only one or two participants are on Baltimore, the Ravens become an even more attractive option given their strong win probability and modest pick percentage.

Buffalo rounds out the top tier with a 71.01% win probability against Miami, drawing minimal attention at 2.1% of picks, though their lower win probability makes them a riskier option compared to the top choices.

When we adjust our analysis to 25% Future Value, targeting pools that will likely extend beyond a few weeks but not necessarily to the season’s end, Kansas City emerges as the top play. While KC’s optimal path in coming weeks may be compromised by using them now, they present an interesting strategic option in larger pools. Their 79.70% win probability combined with just 3.6% pick rate offers significant leverage against the field. Most Circa contestants are saving KC for their Thanksgiving matchup against the Raiders, creating an opportunity for contrarian players willing to accept a weaker Thanksgiving position in exchange for immediate strong leverage.

Cincinnati appears as the second choice at 25% FV, largely due to their limited future utility. While they have a potential Week 15 matchup against Tennessee on the road, that’s not compelling enough to save them. This explains their high pick percentage at 34.9%. However, in medium to small-sized pools, fading Cincinnati in favor of options with higher win probabilities appears optimal.

New Orleans presents an intriguing alternative to Cincinnati, offering similar win probability (75% vs Cincinnati’s 75.87%) but with significantly lower pick percentage (5.6% vs 34.9%). While they have a potential Week 17 matchup against Las Vegas, that’s too distant to factor heavily into current decision-making, especially given uncertainty about team performance and pool survival that far ahead. For those considering Cincinnati based on limited future value, New Orleans offers similar win probability with much better leverage against the field.

When we shift our focus to 100% Future Value, targeting larger pools and those that restarted mid-season, an unexpected contender emerges at the top: the Tennessee Titans. Despite being one of the league’s weaker teams, they face an even more struggling New England Patriots squad that’s coming off a surprising victory over the Jets. The Titans present an intriguing option with a 61.83% win probability and virtually no future value. While Tennessee wouldn’t typically be considered in most formats, their combination of decent win probability, zero future utility, and minimal ownership (just 0.6% of picks) makes them an interesting contrarian play in large pools. As always, monitoring line movements throughout the week will be crucial.

New Orleans maintains its appeal as the second choice when weighing full future value. The Saints offer a significantly higher win probability at 75% compared to Tennessee’s 61.83%, while still providing many of the same strategic benefits. With only 5.6% of entries selecting them, they present a safer alternative to Tennessee while maintaining strong leverage against the field. Their lack of meaningful future value (outside of a potential Week 17 matchup against Las Vegas) further strengthens their case as a solid contrarian selection for larger pools.

This 100% Future Value perspective highlights how optimal strategy can shift dramatically based on pool size and format, sometimes pointing us toward selections that might seem counter-intuitive in smaller pools or those prioritizing immediate survival.

Ultimately, you have to decide how you will play your pool.  Hopefully, you will be around for many weeks with me as we try and survive!

-John