Lack Of Significant Upsets By John Alesia

A relatively calm week in the survivor pool landscape, Week 11 saw the heavily favored teams emerge victorious. However, upsets by San Francisco and Cleveland still managed to claim some victims. In the high-stakes Circa Survivor contest, six entries were eliminated, leaving 99 participants still in contention for the massive $14.2 million prize.

Last week, I strongly recommended Detroit as the optimal choice across all survivor pool formats. While this proved to be a safe pick, the lack of significant upsets beneath them meant limited gains for those in head-to-head or near-head-to-head matchups. Our goal in these scenarios is to identify the most optimal path, maximizing our chances of winning the pool outright. However, there’s a crucial exception: when a small remaining pool is heavily concentrated on a single team, switching to a less popular, albeit slightly riskier, option can be beneficial. This strategy is reflected in the threshold column of my spreadsheet, which highlights situations where deviating from the chalk can increase your overall odds of winning.

Hedging also becomes a critical consideration for many participants at this stage of the season. Ideally, we postpone hedging as long as possible to accumulate equity and get closer to the end of the pool. With fewer remaining weeks, we can make more informed hedging decisions. Conversely, hedging too early can lead to a cycle of chasing losses, where we’re constantly wagering to recoup previous hedge bets. Additionally, we should prioritize late games for hedging, as they provide the most information from earlier games. Unfortunately, this week’s Sunday and Monday night games offer minimal value for survivor pools and are unlikely to be relevant for hedging purposes.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This is new for 2024. The calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Turning to the 0% Future Value spreadsheet, Kansas City stands out with an impressive 84% win probability. However, Circa participants likely saved the Chiefs for the Thanksgiving games, where Detroit also projects as a heavy favorite. This dynamic creates potential leverage opportunities for those who held onto Detroit, a topic we’ll explore further next week.

For pools operating under standard rules next week, Kansas City is the clear top choice, assuming availability. In head-to-head or small pools, maximizing immediate win probability remains paramount. If both Washington and Kansas City are available, consider using Washington this week and reserving Kansas City for Thanksgiving. Similarly, if Detroit is still an option you can use them next week with Kansas City this week. If you sit with those two in Circa, I like that path.  Given the diverse landscape of survivor pools and individual team availability, providing universally applicable advice is challenging. For personalized guidance, feel free to reach out on X @statsational.

Houston, the third-best option on the spreadsheet, is likely rostered by many who held off last week. They’ll likely be the second most popular pick behind Kansas City in most pools, and even more so in Circa due to its unique Thanksgiving rules. The “Threshold” column becomes particularly important in smaller pools. If your pool’s pick percentage on a specific team is projected to be higher than SurvivorGrid indicates, the threshold decreases, making less popular options more appealing for leverage. This will be a key consideration for Circa players next week, where in the past a few participants took an underdog for their Thanksgiving picks and gained a massive edge when they won.

Accounting for a 25% future value (FV) doesn’t significantly alter the spreadsheet’s recommendations, especially as the season progresses, with the suggested picks often remaining the same between 0% and 25% FV. This setting is most useful for pools expected to last several weeks but not the entire season.  Looking at near-term future weeks is crucial as it helps avoid being boxed into a corner with limited choices in the coming weeks.

This week, Houston is the third recommended choice, a popular pick, and a team many have saved. For Circa participants, consider the Thanksgiving games and weekend slate. Houston is projected as a top pick for the weekend, playing away against Jacksonville. Washington and Denver, playing at home against Tennessee and Cleveland, respectively, are also expected to be popular next weekend. Your remaining available teams will influence your decision this week.

This week, Miami, the fourth option, has a 75% win probability. Many likely used Miami last week if they had saved them. This week presents a solid opportunity to pick Miami, as future weeks may not offer similar favorable matchups for the Dophins. If you haven’t picked them yet, now is likely the time.

In large pools with hundreds or thousands of remaining participants, using a 100% future value (FV) is recommended. Pittsburgh, the top choice with a 64% win probability against Cleveland on the road, presents a riskier option but offers differentiation in a large pool. Survivor Grid data indicates 9% of pool entrants are currently on Pittsburgh. Keep in mind that Pittsburgh faces Cleveland again in Week 14 at home, likely as a heavier favorite, which could be valuable if Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, or San Francisco are unavailable.

Miami is the second choice at 100% FV, offering a better balance between this week and future weeks. While Pittsburgh’s overall future value isn’t as high as Miami’s, there are potentially more opportunities to use Pittsburgh later in the season. Current market lines also favor Miami, with a higher win probability this week.

Denver, currently garnering 6% of picks according to Survivor Grid, is another option. If considering Denver, ensure you have viable alternatives for next week, as they’ll be heavily favored at home against Cleveland. The next, and possibly only other, opportunity to use Denver might be Week 15 at home against Indianapolis. While Week 15 offers several options, your remaining available teams will heavily influence your decision this week.

Ultimately, you have to decide how you will play your pool.  Hopefully, you will be around for many weeks with me as we try and survive!

-John