Sweating Bullets By John Alesia

Talk about sweating bullets in Week 13! Detroit, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay all pulled off wins that had survivor pool players pacing their living rooms. Each of these “sure things” turned into nail-biters that could’ve gone either way. For those of you who made it through – congratulations on surviving what felt like walking through a minefield blindfolded.

In the Circa pool, where participants had to navigate the special split format of Week 13a (Thanksgiving/Black Friday games) and 13b (Sunday/Monday games), we only lost two entries, leaving 52 survivors still standing. Pretty remarkable considering how close we came to absolute chaos.

Here’s the thing about this stage of the season – that whole “future value” strategy we’ve been preaching? It’s starting to matter less and less. With only a handful of weeks left, we’re reaching the point where hoarding teams for later use is becoming a luxury we can’t always afford.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This is new for 2024. The calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Let’s dive into what the spreadsheet’s telling us with zero future value weighting, where the betting market favorites rise to the top.

Philadelphia stands head and shoulders above everyone else this week. If you’ve been sitting on the Eagles, pat yourself on the back – this is exactly the spot you’ve been waiting for. And let me be crystal clear: if you have Philly available, there’s absolutely no reason to get cute. Yes, that Week 17 Dallas matchup looks juicy, but let’s be real – in this survival game, Week 17 might as well be light years away. And don’t even think about saving them for Week 18 against the Giants – that final week is a notorious trap with playoff-bound teams potentially resting starters.

Speaking of traps, let’s talk numbers. SurvivorGrid.com shows about 23% of entries taking Philadelphia, setting their threshold at 82%. Here’s what that means in plain English: as more people pile onto the Eagles, the win percentage you’d need from an alternative pick actually decreases. But unless you’re absolutely certain more than 60% of your pool is riding with Philly, looking elsewhere is just getting too clever for your own good.

Now, for those without Philadelphia, we’ve got a cluster of teams bunched together like sardines: Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Miami, Minnesota, and Cincinnati, all hovering between 72% and 69% win probability. If you’re choosing from this group, keep your eyes glued to those betting lines – even small movements could tip the scales.

Here’s where future value comes into play as a tiebreaker:

• Pittsburgh? Basically worthless going forward unless you’re desperate enough to take them against KC in Week 17
• Tampa Bay still has that tasty Week 17 Carolina matchup
• Miami’s future is murky, though home games against San Francisco (Week 16) and Cleveland (Week 17) could be playable
• Minnesota gets Chicago at home next week – their last realistic spot
• Cincinnati has that Week 16 home game against Cleveland circled

If you’re staring at multiple options from this tier, map out your next few weeks. Trust me, it’ll make this week’s decision a whole lot clearer.

Let’s switch gears and talk about those massive pools where you’re likely looking at a multi-way chop. You know the type – where just surviving isn’t enough, you need to position yourself for a bigger slice of the pie. This is where our 25% and 100% future value projections get interesting, but let’s focus on pools with enough survivors to make differentiation worthwhile.

Here’s the thing about these larger pools: sometimes you need to zig when others zag. Looking at our 100% future value sheet, Tennessee pops up as an intriguing contrarian play. Now, I’m not suggesting the Titans are anywhere close to the safest pick – they’re not – but they’re certainly not a team we’d want to save for later. If you’re hunting for that solo victory or trying to minimize the number of people you’re splitting the pot with, they’re not as crazy as they might seem at first glance.

This is also exactly the type of scenario where, believe it or not, saving Philadelphia for Week 17 might actually make sense. Yes, I know this contradicts what I said earlier, but context is everything. If Philly stumbles this week while you’re riding with a different pick, you’ve suddenly got a massive advantage with that Week 17 Dallas matchup in your back pocket.

If you’re not quite ready to go full contrarian with Tennessee, look at that second tier we discussed earlier. Minnesota and Cincinnati are standing out like sore thumbs here – they give you that same differentiation angle but with a much better chance of surviving the week. Think of it as contrarian-lite: you get to be different without going completely off the reservation.

Ultimately, you have to decide how you will play your pool.  Hopefully, you will be around for many weeks with me as we try and survive!

-John