The Sharper Nature Of The Circa Pool By John Alesia

The chaos in NFL Survivor Pools continued unabated in Week 10, as two near-touchdown favorites, the Chicago Bears and New York Giants, suffered stunning upsets. The Circa Survivor pool felt the brunt of this chaos, with 46 entries eliminated, leaving 105 hopeful participants still vying for the massive $14.2 million prize. This latest round of eliminations serves as a stark reminder that even the most seemingly secure favorites can fall, and that strategic decision-making is crucial in navigating these treacherous waters.

The Los Angeles Chargers were the optimal choice in Week 10, offering a strong win probability with minimal future value. However, some participants opted for the Bears or Giants, seeking to gain leverage against the field. Interestingly, the Giants were selected by 19.9% of Circa participants, significantly higher than their 6.4% pick rate in pools overall. This disparity highlights the sharper nature of the Circa pool, where contestants are more likely to prioritize leverage over raw win probability. Nevertheless, this approach can be self-defeating in a pool where many others are employing similar strategies, effectively neutralizing the leverage gained. As we move forward, it’s essential to consider this dynamic when making decisions, particularly in the Circa pool, where the ultimate goal is to win the pool, not just survive longer than most.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This is new for 2024. The calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Let’s start as we usually do with an FV weight of 0. The standout choice is Detroit, a commanding 13-point favorite against Jacksonville, boasting an 85.8% win probability—the highest we’ve seen all season. Detroit’s dominance extends beyond this week; they’re projected as heavy favorites in the following two weeks as well (@Jacksonville in Week 12 and vs Chicago in Week 13). This presents a classic survivor dilemma: take the surest win now or save a powerhouse team for later?

In smaller pools, especially head-to-head matchups, the strategy is straightforward: prioritize the highest immediate win probability. Don’t overthink future value; the pool might not last long. But we do want to look out a week or two to make sure we are not handcuffing ourselves. It is also possible that the most optimal path is one in which we do not take the largest favorite in their current matchup but rather save them for when the opportunity cost of not having them is greater.  This week the choice is clear.  Detroit offers the largest win probability this week, and while their next two weeks they will be a large favorite we will have other options. The optimal three-week path appears to be Detroit (Week 11), Washington (Week 12 vs Dallas), and Kansas City (Week 13 vs Las Vegas). While Kansas City might seem tempting against Carolina next week, Washington offers nearly as strong a win probability, allowing you to save the Chiefs for their Thanksgiving matchup.

If you’ve already used Detroit, the decision gets trickier. Houston (@Dallas) and Miami (vs Las Vegas) emerge as the next best options, both with win probabilities hovering around 76%. The final choice will likely depend on line movement as we approach lock. Both teams have potentially valuable matchups in Week 12 (Houston vs Tennessee, Miami vs New England) if Washington isn’t available. However, if both Detroit and Washington are still on your board, the path forward is clear.

When adjusting the spreadsheet to account for 25% future value, the overall picture doesn’t change dramatically. Miami receives a slight edge over Houston, but the ultimate decision between the two should still hinge on how the lines move leading up to your lock. This 25% FV setting is generally geared towards medium-sized pools, those not expected to stretch the full 18 weeks. Even with this future value weighting, Detroit remains a difficult team to bypass.

It’s important to remember that we don’t need to chase contrarian picks every week in pursuit of leverage. With a team as heavily favored as Detroit, taking the near-certain win and moving on can be the most prudent strategy. Let others gamble on weaker teams hoping for leverage; we’ll happily take the high probability win and conserve our options for future weeks. The threshold column reinforces this point: the 80.6% threshold for Detroit indicates that no other team offers enough value to justify fading the Lions this week. In simpler terms, Detroit’s win probability is so high that even if a significant portion of the pool selects them, they still provide the best chance of survival.

At a 100% future value weighting, the landscape shifts dramatically. Miami emerges as the top option, followed by the Rams. However, it’s crucial to approach the 100% FV setting with caution this late in the season. While the sheet provides valuable guidance, always analyze each team’s upcoming schedule to accurately assess future value. In this instance, both Miami and the Rams offer minimal future value, making them potential leverage plays against the heavily favored Detroit.

However, this week presents a rare scenario where the optimal play across all formats appears to be Detroit. Their exceptionally high win probability outweighs any potential future value concerns. Our best chance to gain ground on the field is to ride the chalk and hope for upsets among the secondary options. If Detroit is unavailable, then a more risk-tolerant approach is warranted. However, even then, straying too far down the list (e.g., selecting the Rams) seems unnecessarily risky. Miami or Houston offer more reasonable alternatives if Detroit is off the table. Teams like Minnesota, Green Bay, and San Francisco possess too much future value to burn this week, especially given their lower win probabilities compared to Miami or Houston.

This shapes up to be one of the easier decision weeks of the season, unless, of course, you’ve already used Detroit. In that case, careful consideration of the remaining options is required. Don’t be afraid to take the chalk this week; Detroit’s dominance presents a unique opportunity to solidify your position in the pool.

Ultimately, you have to decide how you will play your pool.  Hopefully, you will be around for many weeks with me as we try and survive!

-John