Week 15 played out pretty chalky, with all the heavily backed teams taking care of business and the lone Circa casualty coming from a questionable San Francisco pick. We’re now down to 50 entries battling it out for that sweet $14.2M prize.

Let’s talk about last week’s “lock” Baltimore pick. While they got the job done, we, of course, wish we had saved them after all the other potential picks won. But here’s the rub – that seemingly juicy Week 18 Ravens matchup might not be as attractive as it looks now. If Baltimore has nothing to play for, that final week becomes a complete wild card.

Key:

  • Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
  • FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
  • Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
  • # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
  • Threshold: This is new for 2024. The calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

At this stage of the season, those future value calculations we’ve obsessed over all year become less crucial. With just three weeks left (four for Circa folks, counting the Christmas games as their own week), we’re in the endgame now. And speaking of those Christmas matchups – they’re looking spicy.  The pool may be determined in that sub week.

Let’s zero in on what really matters now: the Threshold column. Buffalo’s sitting at an 88.3% threshold this week, meaning if 15% of entries are on the Bills, you’d need a ridiculous win percentage from another team to justify fading them. But here’s the thing – Buffalo’s probably not available to many of you anyway. Green Bay, however, is drawing 36% of picks, largely because they’re both available and less likely to be needed later (yes, there’s that Week 18 Chicago matchup, but Week 18 is always a circus).

Atlanta’s emerged as this week’s second-most popular pick, attracting 22.5% of selections. With a nearly 80% win probability and that Week 18 Carolina matchup looming, they’re definitely in play. Cincinnati offers a solid option if you’re without the top choices, but let’s be real – most of you burned that ticket weeks ago.

Hedging becomes increasingly precise as we near the finish line, and that Monday night Green Bay game is a hedge player’s dream. The extra time lets you see how the dominoes fall before making your final move.

Look, it’s impossible to write a one-size-fits-all strategy here. That’s why I’m always happy to field specific questions on X @statsational. The key is finding your optimal path through these final weeks, especially as you approach heads-up situations. The only time to deviate is when you spot massive leverage – like if 70% or more of your pool is piling onto Green Bay or Buffalo. Given Buffalo’s likely unavailability to most, Green Bay might be the only realistic fade candidate hitting those numbers.

Good luck this week, and hopefully, we will be together again in week 17!
-John