The Treacherous Waters of Survivor Pools By John Alesia

Hello, hello, is anybody still standing out there?

If you’re still alive in your Survivor pool after three weeks, congratulations – you’re part of a select group! The rest of us (ahem, like yours truly) are already on the outside looking in, wondering what could’ve been. I mean, who wouldn’t want a shot at that sweet $14,266,000 prize in Circa?

As of now, a mere 642 entries remain from the original 14,266. That’s a whopping 4.5% of players still clinging to hope. I, on the other hand, took a chance on Cincinnati last week and… well, let’s just say I’m now part of the 95.5% of players who have less money but more time on their hands.

To the 4.5% of Survivor pool warriors still standing, I salute you! You’ve navigated the treacherous waters of the first three weeks, and now it’s time to get serious about making a deep run. Don’t worry, I’ve got your back. Every week, I’ll be here to guide you through the landscape, analyzing the matchups, and identifying the optimal plays to help you outlast the competition.

Whether you’re in a small pool with friends or a massive one like Circa, my goal is to provide you with the insights and strategies you need to make informed decisions and stay ahead of the pack. So, buckle up and let’s ride this Survivor pool rollercoaster together – all the way to the finish line!

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This is new for 2024. The calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

As we do every week, let’s start by looking at the spreadsheet with future value weighted at 0. This gives us a clear picture of the teams with the highest win probability, and this week, San Francisco stands out as the largest favorite so far this season, with a whopping 10-point spread. According to Survivor Grid, they’re currently getting 33% of entries across all pools, and since most people alive in pools can still take them, it’s likely you can too.

In a small pool with only a few entries remaining, I usually advise taking the biggest favorite, which in this case is San Francisco. However, if you think most of your opponents will be on the 49ers, it might be time to pivot. As happened in my pool last week, even with only 12 people left, not everyone will make the optimal pick. In fact, the majority of the pool played it as if they needed to save teams for later, which doesn’t make sense when there are so few entries left.

If you think your opponents will be heavily on San Francisco, you can consider pivoting to Kansas City. Many Circa pool players will try to save the Chiefs for Thanksgiving or Christmas, which are considered separate weeks in Circa with limited game options. By saving teams that will be favored during those weeks, you can cap the pick percentage on those teams before those weeks arrive.

The Threshold column on my sheet shows the win percentage you need for the team you’re using to fade against the team you think will be taken by most of your pool. Based on the Survivor Grid projection of 33%, the threshold is relatively high, but in a small pool, you may find that the actual percentage is much lower. For example, if you knew three of your opponents were on San Francisco, the threshold would drop to 65%, making any team with a win percentage higher than that a viable option.

If you’re considering this strategy, Kansas City would be the obvious choice. You have a shot at being the only one with them, which could put you in a great position to scoop the pot. However, if you think your opponents will mix in some suboptimal picks (and they likely will), it’s probably safer to stick with San Francisco and hope to move on to next week with a smaller field.

While we don’t have a similar opportunity this week, it’s worth noting that in smaller pools, the Monday Night or Sunday Night games can be attractive options when faced with a close decision. This is because they offer hedging possibilities that can be beneficial in certain situations.

In fact, I privately advised those in small pools to take Cincinnati on Monday Night Football last week, specifically because of the potential hedging opportunity. With most people eliminated on Sunday, it gave those in small pools a chance to hedge on the spread line and hope to catch a middle. Although Cincinnati ultimately lost outright, the hedge bet was a winner, and unfortunately, it meant elimination from the pool.

While this week’s Sunday and Monday night games aren’t ideal survivor picks, it’s essential to keep this strategy in mind for future weeks. 

Now, let’s increase the future value to 50%, which is suitable for pools with at least 40 entries remaining. With future value playing a more significant role, the sheet suggests Houston as a viable pick. The Texans will be a tough team to take in the near future, with their best options being in Week 6 at New England or at home in Week 8 against Indianapolis. However, neither of those games looks more appealing than this week’s matchup against Jacksonville, based on the look-ahead lines.

Another team that’s gaining interest, just behind Houston, is the Jets, who are hosting Denver this week. Although Denver is coming off a surprise win in Tampa, the Jets are still 76% favorites to win this game. Using the Sharp App, I like to check the look-ahead lines for teams I’m considering, and the Jets are at best 4.5-point favorites for the rest of the season. Of course, this can change, but as of now, this week presents the best opportunity to take the Jets.

In fact, in the Circa pool, I was planning to make this pick and hold onto Kansas City and San Francisco for the future. With the Jets’ future value being relatively low, it makes sense to take them now, especially since they’re a strong favorite this week. 

Finally, let’s set the sheet to 100% future value weight, which heavily emphasizes teams with less value in the future. Houston remains a choice the spreadsheet likes due to their limited opportunities for favorable matchups, as previously mentioned. However, another team joins the discussion: Arizona.

The Cardinals are expected to be underdogs almost every week this season, unless they significantly exceed market expectations. As a 3.5-point favorite, the sheet is picking them because this may be the only time you’d want to take them. Washington’s impressive performance against the Bengals on Monday Night Football, particularly on offense, will likely cap the pick percentage on Arizona.

In extremely large pools, Arizona should be a consideration, especially if you have multiple entries. However, for me in Circa, I think it’s more risk than necessary. Taking the Jets or Houston provides a relatively low pick percentage with a bit less risk. While Arizona’s future value is extremely low, making them a tempting pick, I believe the safer options are more appealing.

It’s essential to weigh the risks and rewards in a pool of this size, and I think taking on too much risk can be detrimental to your chances of advancing. By choosing the Jets or Houston, you’re still getting a relatively low pick percentage while minimizing your exposure to potential upsets.

Ultimately, you have to decide how you will play your pool.  Hopefully, you will be around for many weeks with me as we try and survive!

-John