Week 5 Deep Dive By John Alesia

Week 4 of the Circa Survivor contest saw some carnage yet again, as the pool shrunk from 642 entries down to just 480! Two teams were responsible for the majority of the damage. The New York Jets stumbled and took 110 entries down with them. While the Arizona Cardinals left 36 entries left to only dream about the final price of $14,266,00.

But amidst the chaos, there was a glimmer of hope for the chalk-lovers. For the first time this season, the biggest favorite of the week actually won! The San Francisco 49ers, backed by a whopping 43.1% of Circa entries (277), cruised to victory, keeping those entries alive for another week. Will the favorites reign supreme, or will more upsets shake up the pool? Let’s dive into Week 5 of NFL Survivor and see what the data shows.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com 2024 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Grid – Week 5 Survivor Picks Helping you gain an edge to win your NFL survivor, suicide, or knockout football pool.survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This is new for 2024. The calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

My survivor pool strategy always starts with my spreadsheet, where I set the future value weight to zero. This highlights the teams with the highest immediate win probability, making them the suggested top picks for the current week.

This week, the San Francisco 49ers again stand out as the top favorites, holding a 76% chance of victory against the Arizona Cardinals, according to the sportsbooks. Following closely behind are the Seattle Seahawks, with a 71% chance to defeat the New York Giants.

In smaller pools, the 49ers present a compelling choice, if you haven’t used them yet. This scenario offers a distinct advantage: many of your opponents may have already picked the 49ers, potentially leaving you as the only one who can select them. If this is the case, picking the 49ers becomes a strategic imperative. A 49ers win, coupled with losses by your opponents, could win the entire pool.

Now, let’s consider the “Threshold” column in my spreadsheet. For the 49ers, the threshold is currently 72.6%. This figure represents the minimum win probability a team needs to be considered a viable alternative to the 49ers. Assuming the predicted 16.5% pick rate for the 49ers is accurate, and the line remains at 76%, you should only fade the 49ers for a team with a win probability exceeding 72.6%. At the time of writing, no other teams meet this criterion.

The situation is different for the Seattle Seahawks. With a projected pick rate of 34.5% and a 71% win probability, their threshold is significantly lower, at 61.7%. This means that if you anticipate approximately 35% of your pool will be on Seattle, you can justify fading them with any team whose win probability is above 62%. This lower threshold tells you just how good taking any team but Seattle would be in your small pool.

One advantage of considering Seattle this week is the potential hedging opportunity it presents, particularly in pools with fewer remaining entries. Their Sunday night game slot means there’s a chance no other viable survivor picks will be available afterward, unless you’re considering the Kansas City Monday night game. If you’ve already used the 49ers, and you’re looking to differentiate your pick from the likely popular Seattle choice, Kansas City deserves serious consideration. This allows you to hedge your bets with the final game of the week.

Furthermore, you might have a good sense of your opponents’ likely picks, especially if several entries have already used Seattle or San Francisco to survive this far. This additional information can further inform your decision-making process.

Shifting our focus to slightly larger pools, let’s examine my spreadsheet with a future value weight of 50%. This setting is particularly relevant for medium-sized pools expected to run for a significant portion, but perhaps not the entire season.

With the 50% weighting, the same two teams—Seattle and San Francisco—remain the top choices, with Seattle slightly edging out San Francisco for the top spot. However, a surprising contender emerges as a potential pick: the Washington Commanders. They have a 61.5% chance to win against Cleveland, combined with a relatively low future value. This makes them an intriguing option, especially if you believe they aren’t as good as their early performance suggests and that some of the look-ahead lines are accurate. Looking ahead, Washington hosts Carolina in Week 7 and Chicago in Week 8. While they are currently projected as underdogs in the latter game, this could certainly change. Currently, Washington is projected to be selected by approximately 13% of pool participants.

Another option worth considering at this 50% future value setting is the Chicago Bears. They host Carolina this week and currently have a 65% chance of winning. Looking further ahead, Week 10, with a home game against New England, appears to be the next best opportunity to utilize the Bears.

Finally, let’s analyze the spreadsheet with future value weighted at 100%. This setting is most relevant for larger pools like Circa Survivor, where maximizing your long-term survival is paramount.

Interestingly, even with the full emphasis on future value, Seattle remains a strong pick. Similar to Washington, Seattle has exceeded expectations early in the season, but the market still views them as a mid-tier team. For instance, they are currently listed as home underdogs against the Rams in Week 9, a scenario that seems unlikely given the early performance of both teams. Beyond this week, the only other truly attractive spots for Seattle appear to be Week 12 at home against Arizona. This scarcity of future value is precisely why many entries with Seattle still available will be strongly considering them this week. However, across all pool formats, fading Seattle this week appears to be a viable strategy.  A strategy made easier if you have already taken them.

As discussed earlier, Washington remains a clear second choice at this weighting, for the reasons mentioned previously. Opportunities to use Washington later in the season may be limited, adding to their appeal.

A new team that emerges as a potential pick with the 100% future value weighting is the Denver Broncos. Considering their defensive performance so far, Denver might be a better team than current perceptions suggest. Their wins against Tampa Bay and the Jets, while perhaps unexpected initially, might seem less surprising in retrospect as the season progresses. This week, Denver hosts a Las Vegas team currently in disarray, with a win probability of 58% according to sportsbooks. Looking ahead, they host the Chargers in Week 6 and Carolina in Week 8, although the latter week offers several other strong options.

In larger pools, Denver deserves consideration, especially if you have multiple entries and can dedicate one to a higher-risk, higher-reward pick. Their low projected ownership makes them an intriguing contrarian play. Remember, in large pools like Circa, you will likely need to survive the entire season.  To do so you will have to have weeks were you are taking a bigger risk than you may want to take.  You’ve likely already taken some risks to make it this far considering how many of the big favorites have gone down already.

Of course, the optimal strategy depends on the specific circumstances of your entry. If you still have many strong teams available, a more conservative approach might be warranted. However, if you’ve already used many of the top teams, a higher-risk, higher-reward pick like Denver becomes much more appealing. It’s an opportunity to significantly increase the potential value of your entry.

Ultimately, you have to decide how you will play your pool.  Hopefully, you will be around for many weeks with me as we try and survive!

-John