A Comparable Setup By John Alesia

Week 6 provided a respite for most Circa Survivor participants, as favorites won 11 of 15 games straight-up, resulting in far fewer eliminations than in Week 5. With 4,646 entries entering the week, just 228 were eliminated, leaving 4,418 alive. A 95% survival rate for Week 7. The Philadelphia Eagles’ unexpected 34-17 loss to the New York Giants was the primary culprit, taking out 89 entries, while the Washington Commanders’ 25-24 defeat to the Chicago Bears eliminated another 70. The top six most popular picks, including the Green Bay Packers at 54.4%, all advanced, keeping most of the field intact.

In the Circa Grandissimo Pool, the week was equally forgiving, with only one of the 16 remaining entries eliminated, dropping the total to 15 chasing the $6 million top prize. That single exit stemmed from the Philadelphia Eagles pick, while 13 entries safely rode the Green Bay Packers to victory. This highlights a key strategic insight: with 83.7% of the field selecting Green Bay, the threshold column on my spreadsheet indicated a fade opportunity. At such high ownership levels, the required win probability for a counter pick drops significantly.

Week 7 may present a comparable setup, with the Kansas City Chiefs installed as 12-point favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders. We will discuss that and more as we look at this week for survivor.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line using sharp.app.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Week 7 Strategy for Smaller Field Pools

In pools with a dwindling number of entries like the 15 remaining in Circa’s Grandissimo or smaller private contests we try and pick as optimally as we can. But sometimes it is advantageous to stray from the optimal pick and use some game theory.

This week, the Kansas City Chiefs present a similar setup to Green Bay last week, projected at 44% ownership per survivorgrid.com estimates. As 12-point favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders, KC boasts an 86.9% win probability, but their Thanksgiving and Christmas games impose a potential ceiling on how many will pick them in formats like Circa and Grandissimo. If you think your pool’s ownership creeps toward 55% or higher on KC, pivot to the next tier of favorites. New England (75.2% win probability at Tennessee) and Denver (75.1% versus the Giants) both offer comparable security with far lower projected picks (around 22% and 2.7%, respectively). For maximum differentiation without sacrificing upside, Denver stands out. The overarching goal remains simple: in any given week, position yourself for a clean solo shot at winning the pool if the breaks fall your way. Being the lone wolf on a viable team with few remaining in your pool is the way to achieve that.

Week 7 Strategy for Moderate-Sized Field Pools

As pools shrink to more moderate sizes the calculus shifts toward balancing immediate win probability with future value (FV). Dialing the spreadsheet’s FV weight to 50% keeps the Kansas City Chiefs as a strong option, thanks to their elite 86.9% win probability against the Raiders.

That said, the Chicago Bears bubble up as the compelling runner-up in this weighted view, sporting a solid 69.5% win probability at home against the Saints and a +33 FV that underscores their lack of future value. Their remaining schedule includes decent home spots against the Giants in Week 10 and the Browns in Week 15, both winnable but unlikely to have a higher win probability than this week’s matchup with the Saints.

Week 7 Strategy for Large-Sized Field Pools

In larger pools the emphasis on future value (FV) ramps up considerably, as these contests are virtually guaranteed to stretch the full 18 weeks and often conclude with multiple winners splitting the prize. Weighting the spreadsheet at 100% FV sharpens this focus.

The Chicago Bears remain a standout, retaining their appeal from the 50% weighting with a +33 FV score. Chicago balances reliability (69.5% win probability) with limited future options.. Dropping to the second slot is the Denver Broncos, whose mere 2.7% pick projection and 75% win probability could be a great opportunity. In a bloated pool, nabbing Denver could catapult your equity if Kansas City and/or New England falters.

For the risk-tolerant in these oversized fields, the Cleveland Browns offer a tantalizing pivot at 0.5% ownership and a respectable 60% win probability. Their +19 FV reflects limited future usage, with likely only one more favorite spot, at home against Tennessee in Week 14. Depleted options that week could inflate their pick percentage far beyond this week’s levels. For those of you comfortable with a little risk Cleveland may appeal to you.

Survivor pools are heating up. If you have any questions on your particular pool feel free to message me on X @statsational 

Good luck and I hope to see you back next week!