Every Decision Matters By John Alesia

Week 14 delivered another brutal blow to survivor pools across the country. Tampa Bay, the overwhelming chalk, lost to New Orleans in a stunning upset. In Circa Survivor, 61% of the remaining entries took Tampa Bay and were eliminated. When combined with Cleveland’s loss, a staggering 78% of the Circa field was wiped out in a single week. Circa Survivor is now down to just 10 entries remaining.

If you’re still reading this, congratulations. You either heeded last week’s advice about leverage plays or got lucky. As I highlighted in last week’s article, Denver, the Rams, and Seattle offered essentially the same win probability as Tampa Bay but with a fraction of the ownership. Those who had any of those three teams available and used them gained massive equity while the majority of the field was eliminated. This is exactly why we talk about leverage and threshold calculations. When you can get 77% win probability at low ownership versus 78.5% at high ownership, the math is clear.

Now, with just 10 entries left in Circa and four weeks remaining, every decision matters. Let’s break down Week 15.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Late Season Strategy: Optimal Path Forward

We are at the point of the season where playing optimally regardless of the size of the pool is the way to go, unless we are down to a small number of people where we can use some game theory. Last week I mentioned Denver, the Rams, and Seattle were fantastic plays if you had any of those teams left to take because the Buccaneers would be so heavily taken, which they were. You also gave up very little in terms of win probability to do it. In those spots we want to get off the highly picked team if we can. But that is not always an option, and taking a much lower win probability team can be a risk not worth taking.

I have talked about my threshold column before, so let me explain how to use it. The threshold calculation shows you the minimum win percentage you need from an alternative team to justify fading the popular pick. For example, if San Francisco is being picked by 40% of the field, the threshold might be 81%. This means any team with at least an 81% win probability would be a mathematically sound alternative to fade San Francisco with. The higher the pick percentage, the lower your threshold becomes, meaning you can justify using a weaker team to get away from the chalk.

This week the pick percentage is a bit more spread out than it was last week, but we still have clear favorites and leverage opportunities.

Week 15: The Top Options

Seattle Seahawks vs. Indianapolis (89.07% win probability): Seattle is a team we never expected to be an option this week, but with Indianapolis having no quarterback, they are suddenly the largest favorite with an 89% win probability. Hardly anyone can take them in most pools, and as such their pick percentage is extremely low. If by some chance you have Seattle left, you should 100% be using them this week. None of the Circa entries remaining can use Seattle.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Tennessee (88.10% win probability): The most popular pick on Survivor Grid’s projections is the second-highest favorite, San Francisco. With an 88% chance to win, they are seeing the highest pick percentage this week. In Circa, 6 of the remaining 10 have them available. If you think 4 take San Francisco, the threshold column on my sheet says you will need a team with at least an 81% win probability or greater in order to fade San Francisco. At 50% pick rate, you need a 79% win probability team or greater in order to get away from San Francisco. If you still have San Francisco remaining, you are more than likely going to want to play them this week. Their next easiest game is at home for Chicago in Week 17, which is a much tougher game than they have this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets (86.75% win probability): The Jaguars have an 87% chance to win their game at home against the Jets this week. Six entries in Circa can still take Jacksonville. Jacksonville has better future matchups than San Francisco, which is why more will be on the 49ers. The Jaguars are at Indianapolis in Week 17, where they could potentially be a big favorite, and Week 18 they host Tennessee. As always, Week 18 is difficult to predict as teams that clinch their playoff spot may rest starters.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Las Vegas (86.45% win probability): Nine of the remaining 10 in Circa have the Eagles left to take. This is unique to Circa because of the large number that used Philadelphia and were eliminated on Black Friday. I suspect even with 9 of the 10 in Circa with Philadelphia left to take, most will be on San Francisco and Jacksonville. Philadelphia offers the best team that is still available to many survivor participants as a leverage play against San Francisco and Jacksonville. The Eagles have two more matchups with Washington, but the home game is in Week 18. If Philadelphia is locked into a playoff spot by then, perhaps that game is not as strong as it looks. Using Philadelphia this week if available to you is the best leverage play many can make.

Houston Texans vs. Arizona (81.98% win probability): Houston is a solid option this week with a strong win probability and low ownership. They offer good leverage against the chalk picks. Houston has a good matchup next week at home versus Las Vegas. Not many have Houston left. Depending on your other options, Houston may be a much better play next week as picks may be more focused on teams with a lower win probability.

Chicago Bears @ Cleveland (78.02% win probability): The Bears are getting a solid percentage of picks in pools based on Survivor Grid projections. In Circa, only 1 person has Chicago as an option, but they also have Jacksonville and Philadelphia. It will be interesting to see how they play it. Do they sacrifice some win probability to be the solo entry on Chicago? This is the last week you will want to take the Bears. They are likely in pick’em or underdog games the rest of the way.

Hedging Opportunities

San Francisco and Seattle play the latest games of the teams most likely to be picked. I note that because for hedging, having the latest game is always advantageous. Think about last week knowing Tampa Bay and Cleveland eliminated over 70% of participants in most pools and perhaps being one of the only entries still alive for the afternoon slate of games. Your hedge bet just increased tremendously.

Looking Ahead: Week 16 and the Christmas Games

Looking ahead to Week 16, the largest favorites are Kansas City (11.5-point favorite) at Tennessee, Houston (12-point favorite) home for Las Vegas, Buffalo (8.5-point favorite) at Cleveland, San Francisco (6-point favorite) at Indianapolis, Detroit (6.5-point favorite) home for Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia (5-point favorite) at Washington. You do not want to take a team this week that may put you in a spot where you are not taking one of the large favorites next week. Remember, optimizing your picks now is paramount unless you are down to so few that going out on your own could win it all.

In Circa, the Christmas Day games (Week 17A) loom large as well. As of now, the favorites will be Kansas City home for Denver, Detroit at Minnesota, and Dallas at Washington. All 10 of these remaining entries went with an underdog on Thanksgiving, so we know they all have that gamble in them. It makes me think we may see a Bears pick this week to try and scoop.

Conclusion

Week 14 was a reminder that even the safest plays can fail spectacularly. Tampa Bay at 78.5% win probability seemed like a strong choice, but New Orleans had other plans. Those who found leverage with Denver, the Rams, or Seattle are now sitting pretty with massive equity gains.

With just four weeks remaining, the path to Week 18 is becoming clearer. Every pick matters, and every percentage point of win probability counts. Use your threshold calculations, consider your future options, and make the optimal play for your situation.

As always, you can tailor this advice to fit your pool’s specific rules, size, and your personal risk tolerance. If you need any help with your pool, feel free to message me on X @statsational.

Best of luck this week, and I hope to welcome you back next week as a Week 15 survivor!