Welcome back to Week 2 of our NFL survivor pool journey! Most of you are still alive after a Week 1 where the chalk picks delivered, keeping eliminations low. The favorites held strong, so we’re rolling into this week with plenty of players still in the hunt. Let’s dive into the updates from the major pools and lay out a game plan to keep your entry alive, whether you’re a high-stakes grinder or a casual player.

The Circa Survivor pool started with a massive 18,718 entries, and 18,145 are still standing after Week 1. The New England Patriots’ upset loss to Las Vegas took out 269 entries, making them the biggest casualty. Meanwhile, the Circa Grandissimo, in its debut season, saw all 69 entries survive Week 1! I’ll keep tracking these pools to guide your strategy, even if you’re in a different pool. For Circa players, remember the unique rules: 20 selections across the season, with Thanksgiving/Black Friday and Christmas counting as separate weeks. Those holiday slates are thin, so plan ahead to avoid burning valuable picks early. Non-Circa pools may not require this foresight, but it’s always smart to think a few weeks out.

A quick strategy note for pools with buybacks or double-loss rules, a topic I often get asked about on my Sharp App YouTube show: prioritize teams with low future value. The goal is to survive as long as possible using weaker teams, building equity before the pool tightens up. For example, taking Philly in Week 1 in these formats was a misstep—teams like Jacksonville were the smarter play.

Let’s break down Week 2 and find the best path forward.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line using sharp.app.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Week 2 Strategy for Small Survivor Pools

In small survivor pools like the Circa Grandissimo, the strategy is simple: play it as chalky as possible. The goal is to survive as long as you can while riskier picks knock out other players, building your equity over time. Sure, you might face tougher choices down the road with fewer strong teams left, but I’d rather tackle that problem later—potentially hedging or selling equity on Survivor Sweats—than take a gamble in Week 2. For this week, the no-brainer pick is the Baltimore Ravens, who boast an 87.55% win probability based on the vigless line from the Sharp App’s midpoint on Pinnacle’s odds, one of the sharpest books out there (Circa’s another great option).

SurvivorGrid shows 28.8% of pool entries on Baltimore, which is likely low for a small pool like Grandissimo, where I expect much higher ownership. In a small pool, fading Baltimore is a tough sell. Their 14% win equity edge over the next-best team this week is massive—those saving Baltimore for later are far more likely to get eliminated now than you are by taking them. The downside? If eliminations stay low this week, burning a top team like Baltimore could make other entries slightly more valuable later. However, SurvivorGrid’s projections show no future week where Baltimore’s edge over the next-best option is as large as it is now. So, while you might face a slight disadvantage in a future week against someone who saved Baltimore, it won’t be nearly as steep as the advantage you gain this week by locking them in.

Week 2 Strategy for Mid-Sized Survivor Pools

For mid-sized survivor pools this week, the approach mirrors the small-pool strategy: prioritize survival while factoring in future value (FV) a bit more. Baltimore stands out with an 87.55% win probability and a 28.8% pick rate, making it tough to overlook despite the temptation to save them for later. In larger pools, ownership might dip as players diversify picks, which only strengthens the case for locking in the Ravens now. My spreadsheet, with a 50% FV weight, still flags Baltimore as the top choice, giving you a solid edge with their 14% win equity lead over the next-best team.

Dallas emerges as a compelling alternative, especially if you’re hesitant about Baltimore or managing multiple entries. The Cowboys sit at 70.5% win probability with minimal future value, as they’re not projected to be bigger favorites than they are this week, later this season. This makes them a smart diversification play or a strong contrarian pick if you want to zig while others zag. With 13.1% ownership, Dallas offers a balance of safety and uniqueness, though the Ravens’ dominance this week keeps them as the safer bet for most.

Week 2 Strategy for Large and Super Large Survivor Pools

For large and super large pools like Circa, the game plan shifts slightly. Winning outright is a long shot with so many entries, so focus on building equity you can cash out later in the season—tools like Survivor Sweats make this a breeze without needing to hedge. This approach tames variance and keeps you competitive. Instead of chasing the safest pick every week, we’ll weigh future value (FV) heavily, giving you flexibility to stand out while still staying alive.

Dallas remains a solid choice in these formats, backed by its 70.5% win probability and low FV, as it’s not projected to be a bigger favorite later. Arizona ranks as the second-best option on my spreadsheet, also with minimal FV, making it a smart play if you skipped it last week. Holding Arizona for Week 5 against Tennessee could pay off—Buffalo and Baltimore might dominate that week, but Arizona’s home edge keeps it close in win equity. This lets you differentiate from the field without sacrificing much.

Minnesota emerges as the next top pick, with its best projected win% also in Week 5 at Cleveland (a 7-point line). That road favorite status could shrink depending on how both teams perform in the coming weeks, so it’s worth monitoring. Even Baltimore, fifth on the sheet at 100% FV, isn’t a bad play—yes, you lose some future value, but you’ll have better options in weeks others use the Ravens, giving you an edge over their weaker choices this time. 

Hit me up on X @statsational with any pool-specific questions, and good luck—I hope to see you back next week!