Let’s talk Turkey… and Survivor Strategy By John Alesia

Week 12 was relatively calm by survivor pool standards.  Only 4% of the remaining Circa Survivor field was eliminated, with 939 entries making picks and just 39 getting knocked out. San Francisco led the way with 32% of selections, followed by Baltimore at 28% and Seattle at 22%. 

In Circa Grandissimo, all six remaining entries survived Week 12 unscathed, with half taking Seattle, two on San Francisco, and one riding with Detroit. 

Now, let’s talk turkey… and survivor strategy.

The Circa Thanksgiving Format: Week 13A and 13B

This week presents a unique challenge for Circa Survivor and Circa Grandissimo participants. Unlike regular pools, Circa splits Week 13 into two separate pick weeks:

• Week 13A: Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday games only
• Week 13B: The remainder of the Week 13 slate

This means Circa players must navigate two distinct decisions this week, while those in traditional pools get to choose from the entire slate. Let’s break down the strategy for each format.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Week 13A Strategy: Circa Thanksgiving Games

For Circa Survivor and Grandissimo participants, Week 13A is all about the holiday slate. Here are your four options:

• Philadelphia Eagles vs. CHI (PHI 74.03% win probability)
• Baltimore Ravens vs. CIN (BAL 73.82% win probability)
• Detroit Lions vs. GB (DET 57.08% win probability)
• Kansas City Chiefs @ DAL (KC 61.54% win probability)

The overwhelming majority of Circa participants have saved Philadelphia for this exact spot. Of the 900 remaining entries, approximately 740 still have the Eagles available, while only 300 have Baltimore remaining. This creates a fascinating dynamic: we should expect 75-80% of all Week 13A picks to be concentrated on Philadelphia and Baltimore.

The Chalk Play: Philadelphia is the obvious choice. They’re hosting an 8-3 Chicago team, have a 74% win probability, and most of the field has been planning to use them here for weeks. If you have them available, taking the Eagles is perfectly defensible.

The Leverage Opportunity: Here’s where it gets interesting. If Philadelphia reaches 50% pick percentage, my threshold column tells us you’d be justified taking any team with a win probability above 59%. At 60% ownership, that threshold drops to 53.3%. Baltimore faces a similar threshold calculation given their nearly identical win probability.

If you can choose between the Eagles and Ravens the Ravens would be the clear choice.  For starters, they will be the lesser selected team of the two, but they also have the least amount of future value.  The Ravens next best game after this one is either home next week against Pittsburgh or on the road against this same Bengals team.

Kansas City (61.54%) and Detroit (57.08%) are intriguing contrarian plays. The upside? If both Philadelphia and Baltimore lose, you could gain massive equity in one fell swoop. The downside? You need both favorites to fail for this strategy to pay off, which makes it trickier than fading a single chalk pick.

My Take: In Circa Survivor’s large field, I’d lean toward taking the Eagles or Ravens unless you’re looking to make a high-variance play to separate from the pack. In Grandissimo, where all six remaining players can take either Philadelphia or Baltimore (with none having both available), I’d be shocked if anyone ventured off those two teams given how conservatively this group has played.

Week 13 Strategy: Small Field Pools

For those in smaller pools with fewer than 50 entries remaining, this week presents an excellent opportunity to fade the chalk and potentially gain solo equity.

The Los Angeles Chargers (80.95% vs. LV) are projected to get a massive 41% of picks across all pools on survivorgrid.com. They’re the highest win probability team that most people still have available.  Week 9 was when we saw the LA teams (Chargers and Rams) most heavily picked. As I mentioned back then, whichever LA team you took in Week 9, you’d likely be taking the other in Week 13. That prophecy is coming true.

The Fade Opportunity: In a small pool, if you believe 50% of your remaining opponents will take the Chargers, you can justify taking any team with a win probability above 71%. There are eight teams that fit that criteria this week:

• Seattle Seahawks vs. MIN (84.23%, -35 FV, 3.5% pick rate)
• Los Angeles Rams @ CAR (82.43%, -40 FV, 4.5% pick rate)
• New England Patriots @ NYG (76.85%, -18 FV, 2.9% pick rate)
• Baltimore Ravens vs. CIN (73.82%, -10 FV, 2.2% pick rate)
• Philadelphia Eagles vs. CHI (74.03%, -34 FV, 8.8% pick rate)
• Denver Broncos @ WSH (73.40%, -10 FV, 3.1% pick rate)
• Jacksonville Jaguars @ TEN (73.40%, -20 FV, 21.1% pick rate)
• Miami Dolphins vs. NO (71.59%, -1 FV, 6.2% pick rate)

The top two teams by win probability—Seattle and the Rams—are excellent leverage plays since most pool participants can’t take them. They were heavily used in earlier weeks when they were massive favorites.

The Monday Night Special: For those with New England still available, the Patriots’ Monday night game at the Giants (76.85% win probability) is particularly intriguing. If you take New England in a small pool, you may be the only one on them, which could create a tremendous hedging opportunity. You’ll have all the information from the rest of the week before that game kicks off, allowing you to make an informed decision about whether to hedge and for how much.

Remember, in small pools, the added advantage of fading chalk is the possibility of being solo on a team. If you’re the only one on a team in any given week and they win you could potentially scoop the entire pot if the favorites stumble.

Week 13 Strategy: Mid-to-Large Pools

As we move to moderate-sized pools, the Chargers become the clear top choice when we factor in future value. At 80.95% win probability with minimal future value (-5 FV), this is unquestionably the best week to use Los Angeles if you have them available.

Most pool participants who still have the Chargers recognize this. Their next-best opportunity is Week 17 at home against Houston, but that’s a significantly worse spot than this week’s matchup with Las Vegas. If you have the Chargers, this is your week.

The Leverage Alternative: Jacksonville (73.40% @ TEN) is garnering the second-most picks this week at 21.1%. They’re a solid leverage play if you want to get off the Chargers and differentiate from the field. However, before you burn Jacksonville this week, check your Week 15 options. The Jaguars host the Jets in Week 15, which could be a valuable spot. If you’re thin on Week 15 teams, you may need to save Jacksonville for that matchup.

Other Considerations:

• Miami Dolphins vs. NO (71.59%, -1 FV, 6.2% pick rate): Miami has very little future value, making them an attractive option this week. They’ll be at the Jets next week and home for Cincinnati in Week 16—neither will be as good a spot as this week against New Orleans.
• San Francisco 49ers @ CLE (68.94%, -18 FV, 8.4% pick rate): The Niners are a solid mid-tier option with decent future value preservation.
  
  

Week 13 Strategy: Very Large Pools

In massive pools like Circa Survivor, the strategy shifts toward maximizing future value and finding leverage spots where you can gain equity when favorites fall.

One thing that stands out about Week 13 is the abundance of high win probability teams. Looking at the spreadsheet, we have multiple teams in the 70%+ range, which creates interesting leverage opportunities. The challenge, of course, is that many of these teams won’t be available to you as you’ve already used them in earlier weeks. But if you still have access to any of these high-probability options, they offer tremendous leverage over the Chargers.

With future value weighted heavily, teams with minimal future value become priority targets:

• Miami Dolphins vs. NO (71.59%, -1 FV, 6.2% pick rate): As mentioned above, Miami has almost no future value. They’re 9th in win probability this week, but their remaining schedule (@ NYJ Week 14, vs. CIN Week 16) offers no better opportunities than this week.
• Denver Broncos @ WSH (73.40%, -10 FV, 3.1% pick rate): Denver offers a nice blend of win probability and low ownership. However, their next best remaining game is @ Las Vegas next week, where they have an 81% win probability in the look-ahead market. If you still have Denver available, next week would offer a much better leverage spot.

The Chargers are still a viable option at 80.95% win probability, but with 41% projected ownership, you’re not gaining much leverage. In a pool this size, you need to find spots where you can separate from the pack while still maintaining a reasonable chance of advancing.

The Leverage vs. Survival Dilemma: Here’s the critical consideration, any of the high win probability teams available to you this week will offer tremendous leverage over the Chargers. But if you fade the Chargers now, you may be forced to use them in a much more difficult situation down the road. Their Week 17 home game against Houston is their next-best spot, and it’s significantly less appealing than this week’s matchup with Las Vegas.

We don’t always have to take the high leverage play. Sometimes the right move is taking the chalk, surviving the week, and preserving your optionality for future weeks. Ultimately, surviving the week and giving yourself the best opportunity to make it a full 18 weeks is most important. In a pool this large, you’ll have plenty of opportunities to gain leverage, but only if you’re still alive to capitalize on them.

Conclusion

Week 13 brings a unique challenge with the Thanksgiving format in Circa pools and a heavily concentrated pick distribution in traditional pools. Whether you’re navigating the split-week format, fading the Chargers chalk in a small pool, or hunting for leverage in a massive field, the key is understanding your pool dynamics and making decisions that maximize your equity.

For Circa players, the Philadelphia/Baltimore decision in Week 13A will likely define a significant portion of the remaining field. For everyone else, the Chargers loom large as the week’s most popular pick.

As always, you can tailor this advice to fit your pool’s specific rules, size, and your personal risk tolerance.  If you need any help with your pool feel free to message me on X @statsational 

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours! I’m grateful for all of you who read these articles each week, and I hope to welcome you back next week as a Week 13 survivor!