Optimal Play For Your Situation By John Alesia

Week 15 was a chalk week in Circa Survivor. Jacksonville (50% of entries), San Francisco (30%), and Philadelphia (20%) all won, meaning all 10 remaining entries survived. Nobody was eliminated, and we head into Week 16 with the same field we had last week. With just three weeks remaining and the Christmas games (Week 17A) looming next week, every decision from here on out is critical.

The Christmas games have added an interesting wrinkle to the Circa strategy. None of the remaining 10 entries can use Denver, who have suddenly become a much stronger pick for Week 17A after Patrick Mahomes went down with an ACL injury on Sunday. None can pick Detroit, who will be favored at Minnesota on Christmas Day. However, 5 of the 10 can take Dallas, who are currently a 3.5-point favorite on the road at Washington on Christmas Day. We are guaranteed to get some underdog picks.  Could the pool end on Christmas day?

Let’s break down Week 16 and look ahead to the final stretch.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.
  
  

Late Season Strategy: Threshold Calculations Matter More Than Ever

We are at the point of the season where my spreadsheet is not as important aside from the threshold column. You will want to pay attention to this column as you get closer to having a shot to win the pool. The threshold calculation shows you the minimum win percentage you need from an alternative team to justify fading the popular pick. For example, if Houston is being picked by 40% of the field, the threshold might be 85%. This means any team with at least an 85% win probability would be a mathematically sound alternative to fade Houston with. The higher the pick percentage, the lower your threshold becomes, meaning you can justify using a weaker team to get away from the chalk.

Week 16: The Top Options

Houston Texans vs. Las Vegas (90.48% win probability): The most popular choice in pools across various sites as projected by survivorgrid.com is Houston. They are garnering 39% of entries, but with a 90.5% win probability, they are still a strong play. I would not consider fading Houston unless I was certain 75% of my pool were taking them. That would move the threshold number down to 70%, meaning you could fade Houston and take Buffalo, Detroit, Philadelphia, or San Francisco. If you saved Houston to this point, it is unlikely you want to fade them. The probability is there are not enough left in your pool for you not to take Houston. This should be a great leverage play despite being the most popular pick. The only remaining game you can consider Houston is Week 18 vs. Indianapolis at home, where they project as a 10.5-point favorite. This week against Las Vegas (14.5-point favorite) is clearly their best remaining spot.

Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland (82.70% win probability): Very few have Buffalo remaining. In Circa, just one entry can take them and most likely will. He could take Philadelphia, which may be popular this week, and save Buffalo for Week 18 against the Jets. The game will likely mean something for Buffalo, and if it does, they will be at least a 2-touchdown favorite (projected 16.5-point favorite). The question becomes which week you want to be solo on Buffalo. Week 18 may never come, so I suspect he takes them this week, but we shall see. Buffalo’s Week 18 game against the Jets is one of the best spots on the entire remaining schedule.

Detroit Lions vs. Pittsburgh (74.52% win probability): Detroit is the third choice and unlikely you have them. Nobody in Circa has them to take. If you do have them in your pool, you are one of the few. Without having Houston as an option, you must take Detroit this week. Detroit’s best remaining game is Week 17 @ Minnesota (3.5-point favorite), which is part of the Christmas slate.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington (72.60% win probability): Philadelphia is getting the second-most pick percentage. In Circa, they can be taken by 7 of the remaining 10 entries. They play this same Washington team at home in Week 18, where they project as a 14-point favorite. It is possible Philadelphia is locked into their playoff spot by Week 18, so it will be interesting to see how the Circa participants play it. One of those with Philadelphia remaining can take Houston and will likely go that way. We mentioned the choice another participant has in having Buffalo and Philadelphia both available. Two of the others with Philadelphia left can take San Francisco and may opt to move to the team with slightly lower win probability in order to save Philadelphia for Week 18.

San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis (71.22% win probability): San Francisco is a solid option this week with a 71% win probability. They play the Monday night game, which helps with hedging as you will have more information than the rest of the pool before having to make a hedge decision. San Francisco’s remaining schedule includes Week 17 vs. Chicago (2-point favorite) and Week 18 vs. Seattle (1.5-point favorite). This week @ Indianapolis (6.5-point favorite) is their best remaining spot.

Other Considerations

New Orleans Saints vs. New York Jets (65.69% win probability): In larger pools and pools with double picks, teams like New Orleans and Minnesota will be popular. In those double-pick pools, you have to take the weak teams in weeks in which they are a decent favorite.  New Orleans may be an even better choice next week depending on what you have remaining.  Week 17 overall will have much weaker options than this week.  New Orleans’ remaining schedule includes Week 17 @ Tennessee (4.5-point favorite) and Week 18 @ Atlanta (1-point favorite).

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee (63.03% win probability): Kansas City is a moderate option this week, even with Patrick Mahomes out for the year. I know many out there were saving the Chiefs for this spot, but that is the risk you take when saving teams.  Injuries can change things quickly.  Kansas City’s remaining schedule includes Week 17 vs. Denver (5.5-point underdog), which is part of the Christmas slate, and Week 18 @ Las Vegas (4-point favorite). Week 18 @ Las Vegas looks like their best remaining spot if they are a 4-point favorite there compared to 3.5-point favorite this week @ Tennessee.  

Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville (59.76% win probability): Denver has become a much more attractive option for Week 17A (Christmas) after Mahomes’ injury. Denver is projected as a 5.5-point favorite @ Kansas City on Christmas Day.  Unfortunately, none of the Circa entries can take Denver.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina (59.76% win probability): Tampa Bay is a moderate option this week. Their remaining schedule includes Week 17 @ Miami (2-point favorite) and Week 18 vs. Carolina (6.5-point favorite).

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants (59.18% win probability): Minnesota may be available to you in double-pick pools, but they offer a slightly lower win probability at 59%. Minnesota will not be favored in another game this year so if you have them left in a double pick pool they have to be considered.

Hedging Opportunities

Hedging becomes big at this point of the season, especially with few left in your pool. San Francisco plays the Monday night game, which does help with hedging as you will have more information than the rest of the pool before having to make a hedge decision.

Looking Ahead: The Biggest Favorites by Week

Week 17 (Christmas Games – Week 17A):

• Dallas @ Washington (3-point favorite)
• Detroit @ Minnesota (3.5-point favorite)
• Denver @ Kansas City  (5.5-point favorite)

Week 17 (Regular Slate – Week 17B):

• Buffalo vs. Philadelphia (3-point favorite)
• Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta (8.5-point favorite)
• Seattle @ Carolina (7.5-point favorite)
• Cincinnati vs Arizona (5.5-point favorite)
• Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (5.5-point favorite)
• Houston @ LA Chargers (4.5-point favorite)
• New England @ NY Jets (9.5-point favorite)

Week 18:

• Buffalo vs. New York Jets (16.5-point favorite)
• Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona (14.5-point favorite)
• Philadelphia vs. Washington (10-point favorite)
• Houston vs. Indianapolis (10.5-point favorite)
• Jacksonville vs. Tennessee (8.5-point favorite)
• New England vs Miami (7.5-point favorite)
• Tampa Bay vs Carolina (6.5-point favorite)

Conclusion

Week 15 was a chalk week, and all 10 Circa entries survived. Week 16 presents a clear top option in Houston, who are the biggest favorite of the week and should be taken by most pools. Buffalo, Detroit, Philadelphia, and San Francisco offer strong alternatives, each with their own future value considerations.

With just three weeks remaining, every decision matters. Use your threshold calculations, consider your future options, and make the optimal play for your situation. Week 18 features some of the best spots of the entire season, including Buffalo vs. the Jets (16.5-point favorite) and Philadelphia vs. Washington (10-point favorite). Plan your path accordingly.

As always, you can tailor this advice to fit your pool’s specific rules, size, and your personal risk tolerance. If you need any help with your pool, feel free to message me on X @statsational.

Best of luck this week, and I hope to welcome you back next week as a Week 16 survivor!