Ramped Up Equity By John Alesia

Week 8 finally delivered the kind of turmoil that had been building in the NFL survivor pools, shaking up the landscape and thinning out the fields in dramatic fashion. After a string of relatively predictable weeks, the upsets hit hard, with the Atlanta Falcons and Cincinnati Bengals stumbling in games they were expected to dominate. These two games alone turned what could have been another quiet week into a bloodbath.

In the Circa Survivor, the chaos claimed 2,153 entries, a massive cull that dropped the remaining field significantly and ramped up the equity for those still in contention. Each surviving entry now carries an estimated value of $9,100

Over in the high-rollers’ Circa Grandissimo, the damage was more contained but no less impactful, with two of the 15 remaining entries falling by the wayside, both victims of the Atlanta upset. This leaves 13 contenders chasing the $6.9 million top prize. Keeping an eye on how this pool is being played may help you with strategy in your pool as it winds down to very few remaining entries left.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line using sharp.app.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Week 9 Strategy for Smaller Field Pools

Let’s focus to the smaller field pools, where the endgame is starting to come into view, many contestants find themselves in contests that could realistically wrap up with a win in the coming weeks if things break right. At this stage we need a blend of optimization and game theory to navigate our way to the winners circle. The key here is leveraging tools like the threshold calculations from your spreadsheet, which quantifies the win% needed for fading popular options based on expected pick rates in your specific pool.

This week, the Los Angeles Rams stand out as the top selection across virtually all pool formats, boasting a win probability hovering near 90 percent in the betting markets as they host the struggling New Orleans Saints. The Rams can still be used for most entries thus far, with their lone heavy usage week ending in that stunning upset loss to the San Francisco 49ers earlier in the season, meaning the vast majority of survivors still have them available. In larger pools, projections show about 50 percent of remaining entries leaning toward the Rams, but in these tighter, smaller contests, that figure could climb higher as risk-averse players flock to the safest pick. Consulting the threshold column, if you estimate half your pool will ride the Rams, youll need an alternative with at least an 81 percent implied win chance to justify the fade, a bar cleared by teams like the Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, and Los Angeles Chargers this week.

Diving deeper into those alternatives reveals viable paths for contrarian plays, especially if you suspect Rams usage ballooning to 70 percent or more in your group, dropping the fade threshold to around 72 percent and opening up even more options. When fading the most popular pick it is also worthwhile to take a lesser owned team if you have multiple options. There is a greater chance you can be solo on a high win probability team giving you a chance to win your pool that week.

Week 9 Strategy for Moderate Field Pool

In moderate-sized pools, where contests often wrap up before Week 18 or end with a small split among winners, reduce the future value weighting to 35 percent from the standard 50 percent. With fewer weeks left we do not need to weight future value as heavily. The spreadsheet update changes little overall, as the Rams hold the top spot with their near-90 percent win probability against the Saints, followed closely by the Packers at around 85 percent versus the Panthers.

To ensure we do not back ourselves into a tight spot in the near future, review the schedules for these teams. The Rams’ next prime opportunity arrives in Week 13 at Carolina. The Chargers, expected as the second-heaviest pick with their 82 percent win probability over Tennessee, have a strong Week 13 home matchup against Vegas, which could be the final opportunity to take them. Contrarians can exploit this by taking the Chargers now to fade the crowd, then grabbing the Rams in Week 13 for a differentiated path.

Green Bay’s Week 11 trip to the Giants stands out as a potential hurdle, especially if your remaining options are thin that week. Viable alternatives then include Baltimore at Cleveland, New England hosting the Jets, Houston at Tennessee, or Pittsburgh versus Cincinnati at home. If one of those fits your board well, you can opt for the Packers this week instead, capitalizing on their lower projected pick percentage, around 11.5% projected on survivorgrid.com.

Week 9 Strategy for Larger Field Pools

In larger pools set to endure through Week 18 with a major prize split among survivors, I set the future value weight to 75 percent, down from the usual 100 percent as the season gets closer to the end. This adjustment boosts picks with strong immediate equity while still factoring in availability for later weeks The spreadsheet elevates Green Bay at 87.7 percent win probability home against Carolina and the Chargers at 82.1 percent visiting Tennessee to the top two spots, while the Rams slide to third despite their elite 89.7 percent edge hosting New Orleans.

Looking at the Rams’ rest of season they have high future value but its focused in a couple of weeks. Week 13 at Carolina and Week 18 home against Arizona. Looking at week 18 is difficult because teams may be resting starters, making it unreliable for heavy reliance now. In high-future-value scenarios like this, the model often highlights mid-tier favorites facing bottom-feeders to save the elites, yet this week’s board lacks those gems, leaving options like the Bears at 58.3 percent traveling to Cincinnati as the closest fit but requires fading multiple 70-plus percent lwin percentage teams, a risky proposition even in deep fields.

Ultimately, this weighting favors the Packers and Chargers for their blend of safety and lighter future value compared to others. The Packers will be favored in most of their remaining games but the only games you may consider them for survivor are in week 11 at the Giants and in Week 14 at home for Chicago. The Chargers have that week 13 matchuo with Vegas we spoke about previously but if you take them this week you will have the Rams in a great spot for week 13. There are not as many great options like we had last week for those looking to get off the most popular teams. Detroit has a high win probability but also has many options to be used in the future. Baltimore is in a similar situation and have already been used by many in week 2. Of course using either in a week like this could yield great results if the Rams and or Chargers were to lose. In a really large pool sometimes picking a bad team with a low win probability is not as good as taking a good team with a lot of future value and high win probability that will garner low pick rates that week. That may force you into some tougher future weeks, but with injuries you never know how things will look in future weeks.

As always if you have any questions feel free to message me on X @statsational Good Luck and I will see you back here next week!