News & Updates
Week 16 was a chalk week across the board. No major upsets materialized, and most pool participants were able to advance to Week 17. In Circa Survivor, all 10 remaining entries survived, keeping the field intact as we head into the most unique week of the season.
Week 17 proves to be a tricky week for most, as teams left to take are limited and the Christmas Day games (Week 17A) add a layer of complexity that few survivor pools have ever seen. For Circa participants, this week will test their strategic planning like never before.
Key:
- Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game’s mid-point of the money line.
- FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
- Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
- # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
- Threshold: This calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team’s future value, so you must adjust yourself.
The Christmas Day Dilemma
This week, Circa participants will have to choose a Christmas Day game. One participant held Kansas City presumably for this game, and that has backfired spectacularly. Patrick Mahomes is out for the season with an ACL injury, backup Gardner Minshew is also out, and in comes third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun. Denver is now a 13-point favorite with a win probability of 88.44%. Unfortunately for that entry, they cannot use Denver.
There are 5 entries that can use Dallas, the only favorite available to any of the remaining entrants on Christmas Day. Presumably, all 5 Dallas-eligible entries will take Dallas. To be willing to fade Dallas, we can look at the Threshold column on my sheet. You would need an option that has a 65% win probability in order to get off of Dallas. There are none of those options for anyone. If you have Dallas, you should be taking them.
The decision comes for those without Dallas. The leverage play is to take Washington. If you advance, you will knock out likely 5 opponents in the process. There is also an outside chance you are the only one on Washington and can win it all. There is one entry that cannot use Dallas or Washington. They can use Kansas City or Minnesota, both of which are significant underdogs on Christmas Day.
Late Season Strategy: Finding the Optimal Path
As I’ve been saying the last few weeks, we do not care much about future value. What we care about is finding an optimal path to finish the 18 weeks. With 2 weeks left, figuring that out is a bit easier. We have to be cognizant of who may be playing for nothing next week. That could change the lines on games dramatically if players sit for an entire or partial game.
Week 17: The Top Options
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona (75.99% win probability): Cincinnati is a 76% win probability and still available to many pools. Survivor Grid shows them as being taken by 25% of entries right now. Cincinnati is an option next week as a favorite at home against Cleveland. They are currently favored by about the same amount next week as they are this week (7-point favorite this week, 6.5-point favorite next week). So if you have Cincinnati left, it becomes a matter of which alternative team you can take is better, the one this week or next week.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington (73.4% win probability): Dallas is getting the next most entries as they host Washington on Christmas Day. Dallas is out of the playoffs, as are Washington. They play another non-playoff team in Week 18 when they finish up at the Giants. This week they will be a larger favorite than next (7-point favorite this week, 4.5-point favorite next week), so if you have Dallas, this is likely the week to take them.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis (71.7% win probability): Jacksonville has a 72% chance to win their game on the road against Indianapolis this week. Jacksonville’s remaining schedule includes Week 18 vs. Tennessee (10.5-point favorite). This week @ Indianapolis (6.5-point favorite) is a solid spot, but Week 18 at home against Tennessee looks even better if you can survive this week with an alternative.
Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina (74.1% win probability): Seattle is a solid option this week with a 74% win probability. Their remaining schedule includes Week 18 @ San Francisco (2.5-point underdog). This week @ Carolina (7-point favorite) is clearly their best remaining spot.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland (62.7% win probability): For those with limited options, Pittsburgh has become a decent option. They have a 63% win probability. Next week they will be a dog @ Baltimore (3.5-point underdog) assuming Lamar Jackson is healthy. This week @ Cleveland (3.5-point favorite) is their best remaining spot.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets (86.5% win probability): New England is the next most popular team this week. The Patriots have the highest win probability but have been used by most entries so far. You will have the option of using them in Week 18 as well when they host Miami (7.5-point favorite). This week against the Jets will be their highest win probability, however (13.5-point favorite).
Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta (78.6% win probability): The Rams are the Monday night game, which is always best for hedge opportunities. The chances you or anyone else in your pool have the Rams available are slim. But if you do, an 80% win probability team on a Monday night in Week 17 is in a great spot. The Rams’ remaining schedule includes Week 18 vs. Arizona (14-point favorite), which is an even better spot than this week.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City (88.44% win probability): Denver has become the highest win probability team this week after Mahomes’ injury. Denver is currently a 13-point favorite @ Kansas City on Christmas Day. Unfortunately, none of the Circa entries can take Denver. If you have Denver available in your pool, this is a fantastic spot.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota (74.6% win probability): Detroit is a solid option this week, though they are unlikely to be available to many. Detroit’s Week 18 game vs. Chicago (3.5-point favorite) is a decent spot, but this week @ Minnesota (3-point favorite) is part of the Christmas slate and offers similar value.
Week 18: The Final Frontier
Week 18 is the finish line, and the current projections reveal a landscape with clear tiers of value. However, there’s a critical caveat: these lines will shift dramatically based on playoff seeding. Teams that lock up their positions will rest starters, turning heavy favorites into coin flips overnight. The Elite Tier (80%+ Win Probability):At the top sits Buffalo (vs. NYJ, -18, 96%), the crown jewel of Week 18. An 18-point home favorite against the Jets is as close to a lock as you’ll find in Survivor. If you have Buffalo available for the final week, you’re holding a golden ticket. Just below are three teams clustered at 84%: LA Rams (vs. ARI, -13), Jacksonville (vs. TEN, -12.5), and Philadelphia (vs. WSH, -12.5). All three are double-digit favorites in favorable matchups. These represent premium Week 18 options. Rounding out the elite tier are New England (vs. MIA, -10.5, 80%) and Houston (vs. IND, -10, 80%). Both are solid double-digit favorites, though slightly less appealing than the teams above them. The Middle Tier (66-75% Win Probability):Cincinnati (at CLE, -8, 75%) and Tampa Bay (vs. CAR, -6.5, 70%) offer decent value but lack the cushion of the elite options. These are “use if you must” teams rather than ideal saves. At 66% win probability, we have a three-way tie: Dallas (at NYG, -4.5), Denver (vs. LAC, -4.5), and Green Bay (at MIN, -4.5). These are essentially toss-ups with slight edges. If you’re planning to use one of these teams in Week 18, you’re likely in a difficult spot with your remaining roster. The Desperation Tier (54-59% Win Probability):Atlanta (vs. NO, -3.5, 59%), Baltimore (at PIT, -2, 54%), and Detroit (at CHI, -2, 54%) round out the board. These are not teams you want to be forced into during the final week.
Hedging Opportunities
The Rams play the Monday night game, which is always best for hedge opportunities. You will have more information than everyone else and possibly be in a position to win the pool. Not many have the Rams left but if you do this is a great spot to be in.
Conclusion
Week 16 was a chalk week, and all 10 Circa entries survived. Week 17 presents a unique challenge with the Christmas Day games forcing difficult decisions. The Mahomes injury has turned the Kansas City vs. Denver game upside down, leaving one Circa entry in a very difficult spot.
For regular pools, Cincinnati and Dallas are the top options, with New England offering the highest win probability for those who still have them available. Pittsburgh and Jacksonville offer solid alternatives for those with limited options.
With just two weeks remaining, every decision matters. Use your threshold calculations, consider your Week 18 options, and be mindful of which teams might be resting starters next week. The path to Week 18 is becoming clearer, but the Christmas games and playoff scenarios add uncertainty that makes this week one of the most challenging of the season.
As always, you can tailor this advice to fit your pool’s specific rules, size, and your personal risk tolerance. If you need any help with your pool, feel free to message me on X @statsational.
Best of luck. I hope Santa brings you a survivor win this year!
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