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The season kicks off this week with NFL Week #1.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Once the final numbers are announced for the Circa survivor contest, we’ll post that official information about entries and payouts here at <\/span>SurvivorSweat.com<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n However, for now, all that concerns me is<\/span> surviving<\/span><\/i> Week #1.\u00a0 I just need to pick <\/span>one team<\/span><\/i> to win the game.\u00a0 Sounds easy, but it’s not always like it seems.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n My strategy: It’s critical to avoid so-called “trap” situations. That means stepping into a trap, and getting knocked out of the contest early.\u00a0 For instance, last season many Circa contestants (and other players in survivor pools) picked the San Francisco 49ers versus the Chicago Bears in the season opener.\u00a0 That looked like an obvious play, since San Francisco was the far superior team.\u00a0 Unfortunately for the 49ers and their backers, the big favorites collapsed in the second half of the game in a rainstorm and ended up losing outright 19-10.\u00a0 A whopping 30 percent of the Circa survivor contest entrants were eliminated in the first week!\u00a0 Hence, this was what we call a “trap” situation.\u00a0 Avoid traps!<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n There were at least three red flags on that matchup.\u00a0 I think they teach us important lessons coming into this season:<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n It’s easy to see the mistake of betting the 49ers now, a year later.\u00a0 The key takeaway is not to commit the same kind of mistake again.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Let\u2019s start with the entire card of possibilities.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Step 1: I’m throwing out all the games with low pointspreads.\u00a0 Those games are expected to be close, so there’s no reason to take wild risks in the first week.\u00a0 I also have no interest in division rivalries.\u00a0 Those games also tend to be closer than normal, and can sometimes be wildly unpredictable.\u00a0 Moreover, I’m tossing out road favorites.\u00a0 Sometimes, I’ll be a road favorite.\u00a0 But I won’t do it on Week #1.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n This leaves us with the following potential picks:\u00a0 <\/span>Baltimore<\/b>; <\/span>Washington<\/b>; <\/span>Kansas City<\/b>; <\/span>Minnesota<\/b>; <\/span>Seattle<\/b>\u00a0 Each of those teams are favored by 6 points or more.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n I’m tossing out <\/span>Seattle<\/b> which plays the L.A. Rams.\u00a0 Seattle enjoyed a better season than many were expecting in 2022, while the Rams (losers of the previous Super Bowl) suffered a nightmare season loaded with injuries.\u00a0 Linesmakers might be overreacting a bit to last season’s results.\u00a0 And, the Rams still have the nucleus of a good team, capable of an upset.\u00a0 Finally, this is a division rivalry.\u00a0 I have no interest in picking Seattle, even though they are likely to win their home opener.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n I’m also tossing out <\/span>Kansas City<\/b>, which opens their season at home against Detroit on Thursday night (the result of that game might be known by the time you read this).\u00a0 Many football bettors are picking the Lions to win the NFC North division and make the playoffs, which would be a longtime coming for a franchise that’s been terrible for decades.\u00a0 It might be too big of a task to ask Detroit to win at Kansas City in the opener.\u00a0 But, it could happen.\u00a0 Let’s remember that despite winning the Super Bowl, the Chiefs were just 9-11 against-the-spread last season from start to finish.\u00a0 While the spread doesn’t matter in survivor contests, it’s still an omen that Kansas has underperformed slightly according to market projections.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Minnesota<\/b> might be the pick on some survivor pools, since they’re playing Tampa Bay, which was one of the NFL’s most disappointing teams last season. What scares me about the Vikings, besides being a mediocre team, is they won a ridiculous number of close games, going 11-0 in one-score finals in 2022.\u00a0 Their losses were by an average of 22 points.\u00a0 So, this team got every break last year and I don’t see where they’ve improved during the offseason.\u00a0 Sure, Minnesota should win it.\u00a0 But I don’t know why anyone would pick them this week given they have Arizona, Indianapolis, and Chicago (twice) on their schedule later this season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Baltimore<\/b> hosts Houston this week. The Ravens are the biggest favorite of any team, currently laying -9.5 at Circa. Baltimore deserves to be a big favorite and this could be a huge year for QB Lamar Jackson, who is playing under a new huge contract. However, I’m wary of the Texans, who might be slightly underrated in betting markets. Even though Houston went 3-13-1 last season, they closed strongly, as 4 of their last five games were close and within one score. Hence, the team played pretty well down the stretch. I also presume there will be other spots this season when Baltimore is a better team to pick.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n This leaves me with my best pick for Week #1 (see below).<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n I’m picking the <\/span>Washington Commanders<\/b> as my Week #1 survivor team.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n At Circa, <\/span>Washington<\/b> is listed as 7-point favorites vs. Cardinals. Most analysts side with Washington to win its home opener. Arizona enters the 2023 regular season with rock bottom expectations. The Cardinals’ projected win total is only 4.5 games, the lowest of any team.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Confidence in Arizona plummeted even further last week when rookie head coach Jonathan Gannon announced veteran backup quarterback Colt McCoy had been cut. That likely means Joshua Dobbs is likely to start for the injured Kyler Murray.\u00a0 This is Gannon’s seventh season in the backup role, and he didn’t even throw his first touchdown pass until 2022 as he’s struggled to stay on the roster and has primarily been a third-stringer during his unspectacular career. The Commanders’ defense ranked 7th in points allowed last year.\u00a0 They also had the league’s best third-down defense, while Arizona had the 26th-ranked third-down offense, even with versatile Murray as the starter.\u00a0 With a new head coach, new offensive and defensive coordinator, an unproven quarterback, and a defense that ranked 31st in the NFL last season in points allowed, this is a total rebuilding year for the Cardinals.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Meanwhile, Washington did manage to stay competitive most of last season, finishing with an 8-8-1 record. The Commanders also shed their previous owner, who had long been a distraction. Entering a new season with a fresh outlook, this is probably head coach Ron Rivera’s last chance to prove he’s the right fit with Washington, and throughout his career many have underestimated his coaching abilities. The bottom line is — Washington is favored by a touchdown for very valid reasons. The total is also low for a reason. Points could be hard to come by. Still, Washington’s defense is massively underrated, finishing 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed last season. That’s even more of an indication that Cardinals are likely to struggle.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Contrarians (correctly) will point out that a Cardinals’ upset could knock out half the survivor field. That’s a valid point and one reason I’m picking other teams in my multiple survivor entries. Nonetheless, even with the “any given Sunday” principle that anything can happen in the NFL, Washington does seem like the best bet on the board to win the game.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Finally, there’s a strategic component to this pick.\u00a0 It’s important to use the marginal teams when we can.\u00a0 If we do survive into midseason, we want good teams as survivor candidates.\u00a0 So, it’s wise to conserve the best teams for later and use the weaker teams when we can.\u00a0 Washington is the perfect example of that principle, in action.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n A look back at the NFL’s first week, with results and a report from the Circa sportsbook.\u00a0 Plus, an early look ahead to NFL Week #2.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Nolan Dalla gives us an insightful look at Week 1 of the NFL season and tells us who his top pick would be for the Circa Survivor contest.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":230150,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,40,43,9],"tags":[48,44,47,49,45,46],"yoast_head":"\n\n
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Narrowing Down This Week\u2019s Choices<\/b><\/h3>\n
My Final Decision<\/b><\/h3>\n
Coming Soon:<\/b><\/h3>\n