{"id":230193,"date":"2023-09-07T20:20:15","date_gmt":"2023-09-08T03:20:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/?p=230193"},"modified":"2023-09-07T20:24:32","modified_gmt":"2023-09-08T03:24:32","slug":"navigating-survivor-pools-for-nfl-week-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/navigating-survivor-pools-for-nfl-week-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Navigating Survivor Pools for NFL Week 1"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m thrilled to be a part of the Run Pure Sports team.\u00a0 I hope to bring the community some tools and strategies to help you make winning builds. Hopefully, one of you can win the milly!<\/p>\n<p>Today, let\u2019s dive into one of my personal favorites: Survivor Pools. These pools offer plenty of excitement, but the key to success depends on factors like your pool size, rules, and how much risk you\u2019re willing to take.<\/p>\n<p>To navigate this, I\u2019ve developed a handy spreadsheet that assists me in making Survivor picks. This sheet factors in the future value of each team to give you suggestions. It\u2019s not the ultimate solution, but it\u2019s a valuable tool to make more informed selections. I also rely on data from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.survivorgrid.com\/\">Survivor Grid<\/a>\u00a0to gauge the market\u2019s sentiment each week.<\/p>\n<p>Now, I understand that everyone\u2019s Survivor situation is unique. That\u2019s why I encourage you to join our Discord community if you haven\u2019t already. There, you can ask me your Survivor questions directly.<\/p>\n<p>In Survivor pools, I aim to secure 2-5% of the total entries if possible. For example, if there are 100 entries, I aim to hold five tickets. This strategy not only increases my chances of winning but also diversifies my picks, so I\u2019m not cornered as the week\u2019s progress.<\/p>\n<p>I play it safe when dealing with smaller pools (fewer entrants), just like in a cash game in DFS. I stick to more conservative, chalkier picks. However, as the pool size grows, I\u2019m willing to take more calculated risks to gain an edge and increase my equity.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking of equity, it\u2019s a term you\u2019ll hear me mention often. Your Survivor ticket\u2019s equity on day 1 equals your entry fee. If half of the participants drop out in week 1, but you stay in, your equity just doubled. This is crucial because the higher your equity, the less risk you need to take. I\u2019m more inclined to take risks with my picks when I\u2019m trailing behind the competition. As the season unfolds, you\u2019ll see this strategy in action.<\/p>\n<p>Now, let\u2019s get into Week 1 and look at my spreadsheet. I\u2019ll keep it simple with 100 entries to simplify the breakdown.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Key:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Win Projection:<\/strong>\u00a0I calculate win probability based on each game\u2019s mid-point of the money line.<\/li>\n<li><strong>FV (Future Value):<\/strong>\u00a0This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Pick%:<\/strong>\u00a0This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.<\/li>\n<li><strong># Unique teams:<\/strong>\u00a0If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-230196 \" src=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/survivorwk1-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"697\" height=\"447\" srcset=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/survivorwk1-3.jpg 809w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/survivorwk1-3-300x192.jpg 300w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/survivorwk1-3-768x492.jpg 768w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/survivorwk1-3-480x307.jpg 480w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/survivorwk1-3-600x384.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 697px) 100vw, 697px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In this initial view of the spreadsheet, we haven\u2019t factored in future value. This approach consistently suggests picking the biggest favorite on the board, Baltimore, this week. Keep in mind that these lines may change, so stay updated.<\/p>\n<p>Baltimore is selected in 32.1% of pools because they\u2019re the most likely to win. This would be the safest and most strategic choice if you have just one entry in a small pool. In these pools, you aim to watch others take risks while steadily increasing your equity as they drop out while you advance.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s shift the focus to future value, setting it at 25%. This introduces more options, with both Baltimore and Washington becoming attractive picks. Washington enters the mix due to its low future value. Choosing them this week is smart, especially in slightly larger pools or when you have multiple entries in a not-so-large pool.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-230195\" src=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/survivorwk1-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"697\" height=\"448\" srcset=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/survivorwk1-2.jpg 808w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/survivorwk1-2-300x193.jpg 300w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/survivorwk1-2-768x493.jpg 768w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/survivorwk1-2-480x308.jpg 480w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/survivorwk1-2-600x385.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 697px) 100vw, 697px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>When we crank up the future value to 100%, Washington emerges as a standout play. If you\u2019re in a larger pool with just one entry, this should be your go-to choice. If you have multiple entries, it\u2019s time to assess your risk appetite. You\u2019re taking a significant risk on these two teams by allocating picks in a 2-to-1 ratio favoring Washington over Baltimore. However, the potential benefit is substantial equity gain if they win while others falter. In the most aggressive risk-spreading scenario, you\u2019d primarily pick Washington and Baltimore, with some consideration for Minnesota, Seattle, Denver, Atlanta, and Jacksonville.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-230194\" src=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/survivorwk1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"697\" height=\"447\" srcset=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/survivorwk1.jpg 810w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/survivorwk1-300x192.jpg 300w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/survivorwk1-768x492.jpg 768w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/survivorwk1-480x308.jpg 480w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/survivorwk1-600x384.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 697px) 100vw, 697px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, you have to decide how you will play your pool.\u00a0 Hopefully, you will be around for many weeks with me as we try and survive!<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>John Alesia breaks down how to navigate Survivor Pools for NFL Week 1 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":230165,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,40,52,8,9],"tags":[48,53,44,47,45,55,46,54],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.3 - 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