{"id":230274,"date":"2023-09-13T17:52:25","date_gmt":"2023-09-14T00:52:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/?p=230274"},"modified":"2023-09-13T17:52:25","modified_gmt":"2023-09-14T00:52:25","slug":"nolan-dallas-survivor-week-2-pick","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/nolan-dallas-survivor-week-2-pick\/","title":{"rendered":"NOLAN DALLA’S SURVIVOR WEEK 2 PICK"},"content":{"rendered":"

It’s been a strange season.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

That seems like an odd thing to say just one week into the NFL schedule.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

However, it’s true.\u00a0 Just look at the Week #1 scores and the early contest results.\u00a0 Incredibly, there were 1,992 of this year\u2019s Circa Survivor contest entrants who have already been eliminated.\u00a0 That leaves 7<\/span>,275 of the 9,267 opening day total entries who survived into Week #2<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

I\u2019m glad to be one of them after my pick last week (Washington) won.\u00a0 Barely.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Whew!<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

What Happened?<\/b><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

Opening week included shocking upsets and several supposedly elite teams underperforming.\u00a0 Most notably this group of teams included — Kansas City, Buffalo, and Cincinnati.\u00a0 Many playoff contenders stank as well, including NY Giants, Minnesota, Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Denver.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

We also witnessed multiple undervalued teams who were expected to struggle outperforming market expectations.\u00a0 Tis group included — Tampa Bay, LA Rams, Arizona, Las Vegas, and Cleveland.\u00a0 All of those teams covered in Week #1.\u00a0 Four of those five underdogs even won the game outright.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Then, there was the epic Jets-Bills overtime game on MNF — including future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers’ season-ending injury on his opening series — which capped off a wacky start to the 2023 season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

I didn’t expect this much uncertainty so early.\u00a0 No one did.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In years past, most survivor contests tend to follow fairly predictable outcomes for several weeks.\u00a0 Then, when it’s least expected, a stunning upset happens sometime in midseason.\u00a0 Every game can potentially be a trap.\u00a0 It’s like stepping on a hidden land mine, which blows up the field.\u00a0 Typically, the most conventional strategy considerations involve conserving the best possible teams for later in the season and then making the stretch run with (supposedly) superior picks.\u00a0 However, traditional methodology doesn’t always apply, that is, if we look at compelling evidence of the last two seasons in the prestigious Circa Survivor contest.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The bottom line is as follows — in 2022, 30 percent of the field was knocked out in Week #1.\u00a0 In 2023, about 20 percent suffered the same dismal fate.\u00a0 So, is it time to re-think conventional survivor contest methodology?<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Is It Too Early to Adjust Our Strategy?<\/b><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

The answer to this question is “yes.”\u00a0 However, note that I said (and emphasize) \u201cadjust\u201d and “re-think.”\u00a0 That doesn’t mean \u201cre-do.\u201d\u00a0 Nor does that mean disregarding proven optimal methodologies to surviving in these pick-the-winning-team-to-advance contests.\u00a0 Indeed, re-thinking and re-evaluating should always be inside of one\u2019s football handicapping toolbox.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Outlier thinking is usually a good thing.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Yes, I’m rethinking my methodology.\u00a0 I’m making adjustments.\u00a0 All the time.\u00a0 However, I’m not abandoning conventional and predictable methods to survive for another week, and then another, and then another.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Confused yet?<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Thinking Way Ahead<\/b><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

Is it Thanksgiving and Christmas time already?<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

No.\u00a0 But if you’re entered into the Circa Survivor contest, you’d better be thinking about those two holidays and the special slate of early games played on those NFL weekends.\u00a0 Yes, I know it’s only mid-September.\u00a0 However, the decisions you make <\/span>now<\/span><\/i> could have a huge impact on the chances of surviving later in the season <\/span>then<\/span><\/i>, assuming we get that far.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

What am I talking about?\u00a0 Fact: Many contest entrants may not be aware that Circa Survivor has a couple of kinks at the end of the season that must be taken into account if we’re serious about winning the big prize. I also guarantee you that some percentage of this year’s field is completely <\/span>unaware<\/span><\/i> of these kinks, so please pay attention.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Because Circa wants to avoid any possibility of ties at season’s end they created separate weeks out of the Thanksgiving Day\/Black Friday slate of games and the Christmas-Saturday slate of games. What this means is there’s TWO additional weeks of games crammed in there which must be analyzed and overcome in order to advance.\u00a0 This includes only four games in the Thanksgiving bracket and three games on the Christmas bracket. Those are treated as <\/span>separate <\/span><\/i>weeks.\u00a0 So, this 18 week NFL season really has 20 weeks.\u00a0 The Sunday games played those holiday weeks are their own weeks, which also must include a survivor pick.\u00a0 Ideally, we want to have good teams that are live playing on these days.\u00a0 We don’t want to be stuck with garbage teams, or what could be a nightmare scenario, which is using up all your teams in advance, in which case you’d disqualify yourself. So, when looking at these games we cannot burn through the good teams that are playing on these weeks.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Translation and Strategy:\u00a0 Try to conserve Kansas City and San Francisco (especially since they play on both of the limited slates), and perhaps also conserve Detroit and Dallas.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

THANKSGIVING THURSDAY-FRIDAY SCHEDULE:<\/b><\/p>\n

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys<\/span><\/p>\n

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

NY Jets vs. Miami Dolphins (Black Friday)<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

CHRISTMAS SATURDAY SCHEDULE:<\/b><\/p>\n

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders<\/span><\/p>\n

Philadelphia Eagles vs. NY Giants<\/span><\/p>\n

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

This Week’s Survivor Team Candidates<\/b><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

Let’s compile a list of the possible survivor picks in Week #2 based on the pointspreads.\u00a0 Note that higher pointspreads isn’t always the best method of picking a survivor team, but it’s a reliable starting point.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Philadelphia -7 vs. Minnesota (Thursday)<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Detroit -5.5 vs. Seattle<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Buffalo -9.5 vs. Las Vegas<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

NY Giants -6 vs. Arizona<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

San Francisco -8 vs. LA Rams<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Dallas -9 vs. NY Jets<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Five of the six big favorites are home teams.\u00a0 San Francisco is a road team.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

First, I’m omitting San Francisco from consideration for four reasons: (1) The 49ers are playing a second straight week on the road and going coast-to-coast, which is often a good fade situation.\u00a0 (2) Stay away from divisional matchups, as rivals tend to know each other better and upsets are more common.\u00a0 (3) San Francisco also plays Arizona twice later this season, which seems like a much better betting option.\u00a0 (4) And, as previously mentioned, we want to conserve San Francisco for the weeks with limited selections and games (see reasoning above).<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Second, I’m omitting Dallas for two reasons: (1) The Cowboys play Arizona and Carolina later in the season.\u00a0 Those are likely to be better games to take Dallas if we make it that far.\u00a0 (2)\u00a0 And, as is the case with the 49ers, we want to conserve the Cowboys for the weeks with limited selections and games (see reasoning above).<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Third, I’m omitting Philadelphia for three reasons: (1) Since this is a Thursday night game, the short week usually favors the home team.\u00a0 However, the Eagles looked slopped in the opener after they led early and were significantly outgained by the Patriots.\u00a0 Minnesota and it’s talented WRs can upset any opponent, and coming off a stunning loss are capable of the upset in my estimation. (2) The Eagles host Arizona late in the season, which should be an automatic win assuming both teams play according to form.\u00a0 (3) Finally, I keep saying this but, as is the case with the 49ers and Cowboys, we want to conserve the Eagles for the weeks with limited selections and games (see reasoning above).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Fourth, can anyone trust the NY Giants after getting throttled on SNF in a 40-0 ass whipping?\u00a0 Taking the Giants on the road seems a bit risky so early in the season given how bad the team played.\u00a0 Moreover, the Cardinals put up a surprisingly decent fight at Washington.\u00a0 I wouldn’t touch the NY Giants in this game with play money.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Fifth, Detroit might be worth a look.\u00a0 They’ve had 10 days to prepare since upsetting Kansas City in their debut.\u00a0 The Lions should win it.\u00a0 However, Detroit has three very soft opponents coming later in the season at home (Atlanta, Carolina, and Chicago).\u00a0 This doesn’t seem like the week we need to panic and select them.\u00a0 I’d also like to see Detroit win a few more games before I jump in the hype train.\u00a0 Seattle, their opponent, can also be dangerous coming off a shocking loss.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

One more comment:\u00a0 I did consider Tampa Bay, which is more a fade against Chicago than a play on the Buccaneers.\u00a0 However, the stats from the Bucs-Vikings game weren’t favorable to the victors.\u00a0 Tampa Bay should be favored, but I’m not picking the Bucs this early in the season until they prove the upset win at Minnesota wasn’t a fluke.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Hence, by the process of elimination, this leaves me with this week’s pick.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

My Final Pick<\/b><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

Buffalo will be my final selection in Circa Survivor Week #2.\u00a0 My reasons are as follows:<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Buffalo led 13-3 at halftime in a sloppy game on MNF, then imploded in the second half, ultimately losing in OT.\u00a0 I think that loss likely motivates a much better effort this week.\u00a0 There’s no doubt about Buffalo’s talent.\u00a0 The Bills were 7-1 at home in the regular season in 2022, and 8-2 including playoff games, winning games by an average margin by double digits.\u00a0 Buffalo should rebound here.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

     <\/p>\n

      \n
    1. This spot seems like a perfect fade against Las Vegas, which played a gutsy game in Denver (winning 17-16) and now must play a second straight road game in the Eastern time zone with an early start.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

       <\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Here\u2019s a solid angle from VSiN: Teams that lost (or tied) as road favorites in Week 1 have bounced back with a record of 20-11 SU and ATS (64.5 pct.) in Week 2 over the last 11 seasons.\u00a0 Buffalo was favored in Week #1 and lost.\u00a0 So, the angle applies to the Bills this week.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

         <\/p>\n

          \n
        1. Looking at Buffalo’s schedule, they don’t have many “easy wins.”\u00a0 In fact, it’s hard to find a game (based on current strength of opponents) where Buffalo will be a huge favorite.\u00a0 The Bills’ home schedule is tough and this might be the game in which they’re favored by the most points.\u00a0 Assuming we are likely to play good teams like Buffalo at some point, this might be the optimal week to select them as a survivor pick.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

           <\/p>\n

          I expect some contestants might be discouraged from picking Buffalo based on the sloppy effort in the MNF loss to the Jets.\u00a0 Actually, I hope they do pass on the Bills and select one of the other teams.\u00a0 That said, I think Buffalo is the obvious +EV play.<\/span><\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n

          Coming Next: NFL Week #2 in Review (coming Monday, Sept. 18th)<\/b><\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          Nolan Dalla returns to give us an analysis of the first NFL week, and to shed light on what Week 2 of the NFL might bring for Survivor Picks <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":230275,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,40,43,9],"tags":[48,44,47,49,45,46],"yoast_head":"\nNOLAN DALLA'S SURVIVOR WEEK 2 PICK - Survivor Sweat<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nolan Dalla returns to give us an analysis of the first NFL week, and to shed light on what Week 2 of the NFL might bring for Survivor Picks\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/nolan-dallas-survivor-week-2-pick\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NOLAN DALLA'S SURVIVOR WEEK 2 PICK - Survivor Sweat\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nolan Dalla returns to give us an analysis of the first NFL week, and to shed light on what Week 2 of the NFL might bring for Survivor Picks\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/nolan-dallas-survivor-week-2-pick\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Survivor Sweat\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-09-14T00:52:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/GettyImages-1675300167-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1708\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Survivor Sweat Staff\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Survivor Sweat Staff\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/nolan-dallas-survivor-week-2-pick\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/nolan-dallas-survivor-week-2-pick\/\",\"name\":\"NOLAN DALLA'S SURVIVOR WEEK 2 PICK - Survivor Sweat\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/nolan-dallas-survivor-week-2-pick\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/nolan-dallas-survivor-week-2-pick\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/GettyImages-1675300167-scaled.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-09-14T00:52:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-09-14T00:52:25+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/#\/schema\/person\/794c9e7201256e634b807ecf74fd2236\"},\"description\":\"Nolan Dalla returns to give us an analysis of the first NFL week, and to shed light on what Week 2 of the NFL might bring for Survivor Picks\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/nolan-dallas-survivor-week-2-pick\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/nolan-dallas-survivor-week-2-pick\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/nolan-dallas-survivor-week-2-pick\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/GettyImages-1675300167-scaled.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/GettyImages-1675300167-scaled.jpg\",\"width\":2560,\"height\":1708,\"caption\":\"EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - SEPTEMBER 11: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills passes the ball during the second quarter of the NFL game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on September 11, 2023 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. 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