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And then there were\u2026..5,924<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Entering NFL Week #3, more than one-third of the starting Circa Survivor field has been eliminated. Only 5,924 entries of the initial 9,267 CircaSurvivor entries remain.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n I currently hold two of them.<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Before I analyze this week’s options and share my final decision, I’d like to post some thoughts on contest strategy as it pertains to the number of entries in our portfolios.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Here\u2019s a question\u2026.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n One of the many takeaways from listening to Mike Buchmiller and Russ Rosenblum, and their excellent weekly podcast posted exclusively here at SurvivorSweat.com, is how different our methods are when making our team choices.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n The divide in strategy is based almost entirely on a disparity as to the number of live tickets we hold going forward. Call this a \u201crich man vs. poor man\u201d debate.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n I don\u2019t know how many entries (and live tickets) are in the Buchmiller-Rosenblum portfolio. If they\u2019ve announced the final number, then I missed it. However, let\u2019s presume they have some percentage of (and control of) <\/span>many <\/span><\/i>entries. I know they bought the max number of entries, for sure. In other words, they can diversify their investment, outlast expected fluctuations, and even survive a few beats along the way and still be very much alive going forward.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Naturally, the greater the number of tickets, the more chances one can afford to take. They can even make some outlier picks based on the hope that some future NFL week is filled with catastrophic upsets that would likely eliminate a sizable percentage of contest opponents. Then, Buchmiller-Rosenblum & Co. can surface after the mass carnage and be holding a few live tickets matched against a much smaller field. Call it – dancing on the ashes. Moreover, they\u2019re also likely to be holding stronger teams in reserve. That\u2019s optimal strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Make sense?<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Trouble is, most of us do not have the luxury of a large investment portfolio and holding lots of tickets. I haven\u2019t seen any official word on this, but my guess is that most contestants hold just <\/span>one<\/span><\/i> entry (costing $1,000), or perhaps only a few tickets, at most. For the record, I started the contest with three entries. Two remain alive.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n When you\u2019re down to your final bullet, you have to make it count. Nothing else matters, aside from surviving. If you have just one live ticket it would be crazy to pick outlier teams, especially in a winner-take-all context.\u00a0 Maybe deals will get made later, and there could even be multiple contest winners, but before we hear that sweet music, first we\u2019ve got to get to the dance.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n So, while I enjoy and learn things from the podcast, I’m less certain that some of those concepts apply to contestants with fewer entries. This isn\u2019t criticism, of course. I just want to make it clear that decisions about which team(s) to pick largely depend on how many tickets remain in your portfolio.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Let\u2019s compile a list of the possible survivor picks in Week #3 based solely on the pointspreads. Note that higher pointspreads aren\u2019t always the best method of picking a survivor team, but it\u2019s a reliable starting point.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n These are listed in order of highest spreads to lower spreads currently at the Circa Sportsbook (roughly a touchdown or greater):<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Kansas City (-12.5) vs. Chicago<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n Dallas (-12) vs. Arizona<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n San Francisco (-10) vs. NY Giants<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n Jacksonville (-9) vs. Houston<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n Baltimore (-8) vs. Indianapolis<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n Miami (-6.5) vs. Denver<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n Seattle (-6) vs. Carolina<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Six of the seven big favorites are home teams.\u00a0 Dallas is the lone road team.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n First, I\u2019m tossing out Miami. The Dolphins play the NY Jets twice later, and those games look to be more optimal. Second, I\u2019m saving Seattle for later since they play Arizona twice. Dallas is off the table because I\u2019m saving them for holiday short weeks (I discussed this strategy in a previous article). Same goes for San Francisco. That leaves Baltimore, Kansas City, and Jacksonville as possibilities.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Jacksonville merits its own discussion. The Jaguars are a big favorite this week hosting Houston. However, the offense struggled badly last week and I’m still unconvinced that this team should be giving -9 to anyone and necessarily belongs in the same elite class with the other (nearly) double-digit favorites. Perhaps they are, but I\u2019ll wait and see; perhaps then with more confidence, I shall play them versus some other soft teams later — including Indianapolis and Carolina. There\u2019s no urgency here. But Kansas City and Baltimoe may be a different story.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Hence, mostly through the process of elimination, this leaves me with this week\u2019s picks.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n With two live entries, I shall play two different teams this week, for multiple reasons.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n TICKET 1:<\/b>\u00a0 I need to check off the Baltimore Ravens. This team is like freshly baked bread. It’s perfect to buy and eat now. But in a few weeks time, this team could be stale and moldy.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n TICKET 2:<\/b>\u00a0 The Kansas CIty Chiefs will be favored in most, if not all of their games this season. However, I don’t see any definitive wins (if there is such a thing), except perhaps this week hosting Chicago.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n This will check off Baltimore for the season on both tickets.\u00a0 It also leaves us with Kansas City open on one ticket.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n I think this is my optimal strategy, which also diversifies the risk slightly with two heavy favorites both of which are expected to generate lots of Circa Survivor support.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Hence,<\/span> Baltimore and Kansas City are my final selections in Circa Survivor Week #3.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n <\/p>\n And then there were\u2026..5,924. Entering NFL Week #3, more than one-third of the starting Circa Survivor field has been eliminated. Only 5,924 entries of the initial 9,267 CircaSurvivor entries remain. I currently hold two of them. Before I analyze this week’s options and share my final decision, I’d like to post […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":230371,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,43,8,9],"tags":[63,48,62],"yoast_head":"\nSHOULD YOUR CURRENT NUMBER OF LIVE ENTRIES CHANGE YOUR CONTEST STRATEGY?<\/b><\/h4>\n
THIS WEEK\u2019S SURVIVOR TEAM CANDIDATES<\/b><\/h4>\n
MY FINAL PICKS<\/b><\/h4>\n
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COMING NEXT: NFL WEEK #3 IN REVIEW (COMING MONDAY, SEPT. 25TH)<\/b><\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"