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When you come to a fork in the road, take it.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n — Yogi Berra<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n I’ve reached a fork on the road.<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Which strategy path do I take?<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n This appears to be one of those weeks on the schedule that will test survivors as to their real objectives. Am I playing just<\/span> to survive?<\/span><\/i> Or, am I really playing<\/span> to win?<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n <\/p>\n My answer is — both. I’m playing to survive. But, I’m also playing to win. Some weeks, it’s better to play things safe. Other weeks, it’s best to take a chance.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Now, facing a fork in the road, I’ve reached my decision.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n I’m going to take it.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Yogi would approve.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n This is a fair question.\u00a0 I expect many survivors will do the obvious.\u00a0 That means picking one of the heavily-favored teams playing versus bad opponents.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n The most obvious example is the <\/span>Miami Dolphins <\/b>(3-1) hosting the New York Giants (1-3). Circa sportsbook odds list Miami as an 11-point favorite. I expect the Dolphins will get heavy action in the CircaSurvivor pool this week.\u00a0 Miami remains a top team despite coming off a blowout loss in Buffalo last week.\u00a0 The Dolphins will be eager to avenge that loss and are likely to go all out at home against a team that’s looked horrific in 14 of 16 quarters this season, which includes three losses by a combined 79 points.\u00a0 We watched the Giants surrender 11 sacks versus Seattle on Monday night.\u00a0 This team might be even worse than the winless teams, including Chicago and Carolina.\u00a0 Hence, it’s easy to understand why many CircaSurvivor contestants will pick Miami.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n The <\/span>Detroit Lions<\/b> (3-1) are likely to attract significant support, as well. The Lions hosts the Panthers in the battle of the cats.\u00a0 Carolina (0-4) has played more like kittens this season.\u00a0 Their offense has looked terrible.\u00a0 Detroit will be well-rested off a 10-day rest and should have no problem with an outclassed opponent.\u00a0 Circa sportsbook odds list Detroit as a 9-point favorite. Hence picking the Lions looks easy to “just win the game.”\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n After those two lopsided matchups (according to the pointspreads), there’s quite a big dropoff.\u00a0 All the remaining games are lined at less than a touchdown.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n So, the question becomes — is the optimal strategy to use up one of the good teams now, or save them for later in the season?<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Think of ourselves as castaways stuck on a deserted island. We possess 32 servings of food and water. Some of those meals are big feasts.\u00a0 Others are snacks and small meals.\u00a0 To survive, we must last on this deserted island until we’re rescued.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Obviously, it would be foolish to eat all the good food in the first few days.\u00a0 If possible, we should try and conserve the most nutritious meals for later.\u00a0 In fact, if we can somehow keep the big feasts without consuming them early, we’ll be in a much better position later on.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n I suspect many CircaSurvivor contestants are eating all the good food now, and they’ll be close to the starving point later on. That’s the problem with using up teams like Miami and Detroit right now.\u00a0 Chances are, good teams like Miami and Detroit will be more useful later when the basket of teams isn’t as full.\u00a0 In a winner-take-all format, I’m not thinking so much about Week #5.\u00a0 I’m thinking about Week #15, and beyond,<\/span> right now.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n My guess is, this contest goes at least to Week 16B (which is the 18th “week”).\u00a0 I’ll explain my reasoning as follows:<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Week 12A has four Thanksgiving and Friday games. This limited schedule, especially of there\u2019s an upset or two will probably carve the field down significantly. Then, Week 16A with just 3 games (all on Christmas Eve) probably does the remaining damage. <\/span>It is essential to have as many of those teams that play on those days alive, giving us more picking options.<\/span><\/i> This must factor into decisions made now.\u00a0 Example: What if a star quarterback gets injured?\u00a0 How might that impact the good teams?\u00a0 Weather could also be a neutralizer later on. We want<\/span> options.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Moreover, at some point the real long-term survivors will have to use some of the .500 teams, and perhaps even some teams with losing records.\u00a0 There\u2019s no other way around this. Accordingly, the optimal strategy seems to be picking those marginal teams now rather than later, especially when they’re facing very weak opponents.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n I\u2019m down to just one entry in the CircaSurvivor contest. I have used the following teams so far, which means I cannot pick them again for the remainder of the season:<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u00a0ENTRY (NOLANDALLA): BALTIMORE, BUFFALO, KANSAS CITY, SAN FRANCISCO…..<\/strong><\/span><\/i><\/p>\n <\/p>\n As you can see, I can’t keep picking elite teams. This is the ideal time to depart from the field and pick a marginal team playing a bad opponent. This situation is even more ideal since many contestants may not consider the Thursday night game (or may simply forget about it). If I make a pick on this game, I prefer less people to be on it (so why am I sharing it here — good question).\u00a0 If somehow one of the heavy favorites is upset, that puts me in terrific shape going forward.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Of course, my pick could lose, too.\u00a0 But let’s not think about that.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n With only one live entry, I\u2019m picking the <\/span>Washington Commanders<\/b> on my remaining ticket.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n In an ideal week, Washington would win, and Miami and Detroit would lose, and none of you in the contest would read this and follow along, and you missed making the Thursday night pick in time. Shhh\u2026.please don’t tell anybody, okay?\u00a0 Let everyone else in the contest take that other path at their fork in the road.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n The <\/span>Washington Commanders<\/b> are my final selection in CircaSurvivor Week #5.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" When you come to a fork in the road, take it. — Yogi Berra I’ve reached a fork on the road. Which strategy path do I take? OPTION A. Play it safe, pick a heavy favorite, and most likely advance — but at a possible cost later in the season […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":230454,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[43,8,9],"tags":[48,49],"yoast_head":"\n\n
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WHY NOT JUST PICK ONE OF THE BIG FAVORITES THIS WEEK?<\/b><\/h4>\n
A RISKIER PICK, BUT THE OPTIMAL PLAY<\/b><\/h4>\n
WHY THINK SO FAR AHEAD, SINCE WE MIGHT NOT GET THAT FAR?<\/b><\/h4>\n
WEEK #5 STRATEGY OPTIONS<\/b><\/h4>\n
MY FINAL PICK<\/b><\/h4>\n
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COMING NEXT: NFL WEEK #5 IN REVIEW (COMING MONDAY, OCT. 9)<\/b><\/h4>\n