{"id":230473,"date":"2023-10-11T12:34:14","date_gmt":"2023-10-11T19:34:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/?p=230473"},"modified":"2023-10-11T12:34:14","modified_gmt":"2023-10-11T19:34:14","slug":"2023-circa-survivor-week-5-in-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-5-in-review\/","title":{"rendered":"2023 CIRCA SURVIVOR \u2013 WEEK #5 IN REVIEW"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last week, I came to a fork in the road.\u00a0 And, I took it.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Then, I hit a tree.\u00a0 Or, I ran off a cliff.\u00a0 Or, I got hit by a bus.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Pick your metaphor.\u00a0 <\/span>I’m out.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Noooooooooooooooo!<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

To say I’m disappointed would be an understatement.\u00a0 Yet, I’m strangely satisfied, as well.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Even within this short time — just five weeks of NFL action — I\u2019ve learned many things about survivor contests, strategy, and perhaps most important — the huge advantages of having multiple entries.\u00a0 Investing in CircaSurvivor with several entries really is the right way to go, if that\u2019s possible.\u00a0 In fact, these advantages become apparent once it’s understood that taking chances and diversifying is the optimal strategy when controlling a portfolio of entries \u2013 which can all be used to work in concert.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

By contrast, it’s very difficult to take just one ticket and run it successfully through 15-16\u201317-18-19-20 weeks without a surprise upset happening.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

I lost on the Washington Commanders, which got court-martialed by the Chicago Bears in a surprise upset on Thursday night football.\u00a0 The Bears won convincingly 40-20.\u00a0 There were no bad breaks or unlucky moments for those of us with our tickets punched with Washington as our team.\u00a0 For those of us who picked the Commanders, we had the wrong side.\u00a0 It’s that simple.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Even though I’m out of this year’s CircaSurvivor (unless I decide to buy another ticket on the marketplace \u2013 which is possible), I will continue to share my thoughts and ideas.\u00a0 Even though I’m out (and many of you reading this are also eliminated) I think we can learn more going forward.\u00a0 It would be a mistake to not try to check in each week and pick up some pointers.\u00a0 Who knows?\u00a0 Perhaps something we see this season might help us next year, and beyond.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

NFL Week #5 in Review\u00a0<\/b><\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

Judging by the number of contestants who passed on the “easy” choices this week, it appears many of us were of the same mindset.\u00a0 We were thinking ahead.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Miami and Detroit were the obvious easy picks based purely on survival instinct.\u00a0 Both were the biggest favorites this week.\u00a0 However, it can’t be stressed strongly enough that the trouble with picking either the Dolphins or Lions is\/was — that’s spending precious capital way too early, and unnecessarily so.\u00a0 It’s a waste.\u00a0 Those good teams are likely to be far more valuable later in the season.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Remember, in CircaSurvivor’s winner-take-all contest, finishing 9,000th, or 199th, or 78th, or 24th, or 9th all pays the same — which is to say <\/span>zippo.<\/span><\/i>\u00a0 It doesn’t make much sense to play it safe each week just to advance if you’re likely to crash and burn later on because all that’s left later in the season are lousy team choices.\u00a0 Many of us who picked Washington (and other marginal teams in the first five weeks of the contest) hoped to use up those “iffy” but inevitable picks now when in favorable situations, and preserve the best teams for later.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

So, here we are.\u00a0 Stuck on the outside looking in.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/b><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Three of the six most popular picks in Week #5 lost.\u00a0 Hence, the field was trimmed by another 20 percent as 526 more entries were torched as of Sunday night.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Washington accounted for 412 losing tickets.\u00a0 The Commanders were the third most popular choice this week.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Baltimore attracted far less interest, but still got 58 picks in the pool.\u00a0 The Ravens should have won the game versus Pittsburgh \u2013 and most certainly would have \u2013 were it not for a bonehead play call and decision-making by notoriously inconsistent QB Lamar Jackson.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

New England was picked on 28 tickets.\u00a0 Don’t ask me what those contestants were thinking taking the Patriots.\u00a0 They were either Bill Belichick’s final loyalists, or maybe they simply checked the wrong box when logging in to Circa online.\u00a0 The Patriots were hammered by the New Orleans Saints 34-0.\u00a0 The game wasn\u2019t even that close.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A few other teams got a sprinkle of support, accounting for another 20 or so eliminations.\u00a0 Then, there were 2 entries that failed to make any pick.\u00a0 Thanks for the contribution.\u00a0 Thanks for playing!<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Finally, one entrant picked the New York Giants to win, who were 12-point underdogs at Miami.\u00a0 Methinks the 2 tickets that didn\u2019t bother to make a pick had a better shot to advance than picking the woeful Giants.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

From the Outside\u2026.Looking In<\/b><\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

A few weeks ago, I created my strategic season-long plan.\u00a0 This was based on scheduling, conservation of good teams, and perhaps most important \u2013 close examination of later weeks when there were few standout choices.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

I\u2019m not sure how this would have played out.\u00a0 That said, I\u2019m posting it here for consideration.\u00a0 Perhaps later, I\u2019ll revisit this and see if there\u2019s something to be learned which might apply to future survivor contests and survivor strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Here are those notes (with upcoming picks):<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

LIKELY CIRCA PICKS (LOOKING AHEAD):<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Week 4 — SFO vs. ARZ<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Week 5 — DET vs. CAR or WASH vs. CHI<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Week 6 — MIA vs. CAR or PHI (road team) at NYJ<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Week 7 — SEA vs. ARZ<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Week 8 — LAC vs. CHI<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Week 9 — NOR vs. CHI or CLE vs. ARZ<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Week 10 — CIN vs. HOU<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Week 11 — DET vs. CHI or JAX vs. TEN<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Week 12A — DAL vs. WASH or MIA (road team) at NYJ<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Week 12B —\u00a0 MIN vs. CHI or CLE (road team) at DEN<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Week 13 — PIT vs. ARZ<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Week 14 — NOR vs. CAR or MIA vs. TEN<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Week 15 — CLE vs. CHI<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Week 16A — 3 toss up games….going to be problematic<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Week 16B — GB (road team) at CAR<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Week 17 — PHI vs. ARZ<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Week 18 — NWE vs. NYJ (but could be someone unusual because of “meaningless” final games)<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Getting Up-to-Date<\/b><\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

The 2023 Circa Survivor contest cost $1,000 per entry.\u00a0 There were 9,267 initial entries.\u00a0 After just 5 weeks, there are only 1,859 live entries (about 20 percent of the field).\u00a0 Hence, 80 percent of the starting field has been eliminated.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

It also appears the bust out rate is somewhat higher than normal, but not as high as last season (when about 85 percent was gone by Week #5).<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nolan Dalla breaks down week 5 of the NFL Season and how it effects Survivor<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":230477,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[39,11,40,43],"tags":[48,44,47,49,45],"yoast_head":"\n2023 CIRCA SURVIVOR \u2013 WEEK #5 IN REVIEW - Survivor Sweat<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nolan Dalla breaks down week 5 of the NFL Season and how it effects Survivor\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-5-in-review\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2023 CIRCA SURVIVOR \u2013 WEEK #5 IN REVIEW - Survivor Sweat\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nolan Dalla breaks down week 5 of the NFL Season and how it effects Survivor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-5-in-review\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Survivor Sweat\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-10-11T19:34:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/GettyImages-1719833061-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1707\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Survivor Sweat Staff\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Survivor Sweat Staff\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-5-in-review\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-5-in-review\/\",\"name\":\"2023 CIRCA SURVIVOR \u2013 WEEK #5 IN REVIEW - Survivor Sweat\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-5-in-review\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-5-in-review\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/GettyImages-1719833061-scaled.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-10-11T19:34:14+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-10-11T19:34:14+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/#\/schema\/person\/794c9e7201256e634b807ecf74fd2236\"},\"description\":\"Nolan Dalla breaks down week 5 of the NFL Season and how it effects Survivor\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-5-in-review\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-5-in-review\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-5-in-review\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/GettyImages-1719833061-scaled.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/GettyImages-1719833061-scaled.jpg\",\"width\":2560,\"height\":1707,\"caption\":\"LANDOVER, MARYLAND - OCTOBER 05: Tremaine Edmunds #49 and Terell Smith #32 of the Chicago Bears tackle Logan Thomas #82 of the Washington Commanders during the fourth quarter at FedExField on October 05, 2023 in Landover, Maryland. 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