{"id":230727,"date":"2023-11-02T12:06:47","date_gmt":"2023-11-02T19:06:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/?p=230727"},"modified":"2024-09-19T12:33:47","modified_gmt":"2024-09-19T19:33:47","slug":"2023-circa-survivor-week-8-review-week-9-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-8-review-week-9-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"2023 CIRCA SURVIVOR \u2013 WEEK 8 REVIEW \/ WEEK 9 PREVIEW"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">IS THIS THE TOUGHEST WEEK IN THE CIRCA SURVIVOR CONTEST?<\/span><\/i><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">SAINTS AND BROWNS EXPECTED TO BE CO-CONSENSUS CONTEST FAVORITES\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Last week was the most uneventful of the 2023 Circa Survivor contest, so far.\u00a0 Out of 1,234 contestants who went into Week 8 still alive, only 36 were eliminated.\u00a0 That now leaves 1,198 survivors who will advance on into Week 9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">WEEK 8 REVIEW<\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The reason why 97 percent of the field survived Week 8 is simple.\u00a0 Few upsets happened, which meant all of the most popular contest picks won.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There were 1,057 entries attached to just three teams \u2013 Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, and Detroit Lions.\u00a0 That trio of big favorites won easily, resulting in a relatively stress-free weekend for most Circa Survivor contestants.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The breather was a welcome departure following the chaotic carnage of NFL Weeks 1 through 7, which were wildly unpredictable.\u00a0 In fact, more than 80 percent of the starting field was eliminated within just the first six weeks, which comprises only one-third of the regular season.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Last week also revealed \u2013 and reinforced \u2013 the wisdom of a popular survivor pool strategy.\u00a0 It\u2019s not so important to select good teams so much as it\u2019s often wise to identify and then pick against the bad teams.\u00a0 Consider that the three most popular \u201cfades\u201d in Week 8 were \u2013 Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals, and Las Vegas Raiders.\u00a0 None of those struggling teams put up much of a fight.\u00a0 In fact, the Raiders\u2019 (lack of) effort was so appalling, the head coach and general manager were fired after the game.\u00a0 No word on whether Raiders owner Mark Davis had his own team in a survivor pool.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Moreover, proving the validity of picking \u201cagainst\u201d some teams rather than \u201cfor\u201d others as a viable strategy, consider the most popular Circa Survivor contest pick for Week 8 was by far \u2013 the LA Chargers.\u00a0 At first glance, picking a struggling 2-4 team that\u2019s surrendered more points than they\u2019d scored this season seemed like a crazy decision.\u00a0 However, the Chargers were \u201cdue\u201d for a breakout game and the hapless Bears who were starting a rookie quarterback in Week 8 appeared to be the perfect punching bag.\u00a0 There were 635 picks on the Chargers, constituting 54 percent of the pool selections.\u00a0 Incredibly, that\u2019s the highest percentage of picks on any team in any week of the contest, thus far in 2023.\u00a0 And again \u2013 all those contestants placed their faith in an inconsistent 2-4 team.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The biggest upset for contestants was the Houston Texans who were upset at -3 point favorites playing at previously winless Carolina.\u00a0 Like the other so-called \u201cmismatches,\u201d the 35 picks on the Texans were likely based on expectations that the Panthers would continue losing.\u00a0 Carolina didn\u2019t cooperate as they kicked a last-second field goal and ended up winning their first game of the season 15-13.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Moving forward, look for more of these seemingly bizarre situations to occur.\u00a0 As the best teams get used up by contestants, an increasing segment of the pool will have to get creative and do things like picking mediocre, and even some teams with losing records.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">WEEK 9 PREVIEW<\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fourteen NFL games are scheduled this week (Thursday through Monday).<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unlike recent weeks, there appears to be few, if any, absolute standout contest picks.\u00a0 Such uncertainty could foretell a return to contest chaos again, meaning a sizable number of surprises, upsets \u2013 and, by consequence \u2013 eliminations.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For example, Week 8 included six games lined at more than a touchdown.\u00a0 Week 9 includes just 2 games lined at -7 points, or higher.\u00a0 And, both of those favored teams have similar characteristics to the Chargers situation last week.\u00a0 That is to say, the two teams many contestants are expected to pick are deeply flawed and don\u2019t inspire lots of confidence, despite the high spreads.\u00a0 However, their opponents are simply so bad that they\u2019re hopelessly outclassed by inconsistent and mediocre opposition.\u00a0 Hence, the two choices are obvious.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New Orleans is likely to be the most popular contest pick for Week 9.\u00a0 The Saints host the Chicago Bears, who looked awful in last week\u2019s 17-point loss to the Chargers.\u00a0 New Orleans is 4-4. Despite playing a creampuff schedule.\u00a0 Just one of the eight teams they\u2019ve faced, thus far, have a winning record (and that was Jacksonville, which beat New Orleans by a touchdown last week).\u00a0 If any team is ripe for an upset, it could be the Saints.\u00a0 Nonetheless, given so few picking this week, look for New Orleans to be a \u201chold your nose\u201d selection based on the hope the Bears will continue to struggle.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cleveland is expected to be the other co-consensus selection among pool survivors.\u00a0 The Browns host the Arizona Cardinals, losers of 5 straight games (all by more than a touchdown, and 4 by double digits).\u00a0 Cleveland is 4-3, despite playing a tough schedule.\u00a0 The Browns quarterback situation remains uncertain this week.\u00a0 Backup P.J. Walker could start for the fourth consecutive week.\u00a0 Even if Deshaun Watson returns following an injury, his questionable status and erratic play won\u2019t win much confidence from bettors\/contestants.\u00a0 So, I expect more survivor pool picks to be on the Saints rather than the Browns.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As for the other 12 matchups, all are lined at less than a touchdown, and 8 have pointspreads of +\/- 3 points.\u00a0 Hence, this is a very tough week to predict, especially for those who have already used up the best teams (mostly favorites) in their earlier pool selections.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This makes it highly probable that 60 to 70 percent of the remaining Circa Survivor pool will likely be on either New Orleans or Cleveland.\u00a0 Naturally, this also opens up some avenues for the boldest contrarians who might be inclined to select a marginal team pick, and then hope for mass carnage, including the Saints and\/or Browns losing in an upset.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">PLAYING CIRCA SURVIVOR \u2013 FOR FUN<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Will the Washington Commanders\u2019 devastating loss to the Chicago Bears in Week 5 end up costing me $9.4 million in prize money?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We shall see.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even though I\u2019ve been eliminated, it\u2019s still fun to play along.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Several weeks ago, I created my season-long strategy plan.\u00a0 This was based on scheduling.\u00a0 I wanted to conserve as many good teams as possible.\u00a0 Most important, my goal was to keep my options open on later week when there are expected to be few standout choices.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We\u2019ll continue to see how this plays out.\u00a0 That said, I\u2019m posting it here for public consideration.\u00a0 Perhaps there\u2019s even something to be learned which might apply to future survivor contests and survivor strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here are those notes I made back after Week #3 (with my tentative upcoming picks):<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">LIKELY CIRCA PICKS (LOOKING AHEAD):<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Week 4 \u2014 SFO vs. ARZ \u2026. winner<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Week 5 \u2014 DET vs. CAR or WASH vs. CHI (Note: I picked Washington, and was eliminated)<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Week 6 \u2014 MIA vs. CAR \u2026. winner<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Week 7 \u2014 SEA vs. ARZ \u2026. winner<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Week 8 \u2014 LAC vs. CHI \u2026. winner<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Week 9 \u2014 NOR vs. CHI or CLE vs. ARZ \u2026. TBD<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Week 10 \u2014 CIN vs. HOU<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Week 11 \u2014 DET vs. CHI or JAX vs. TEN<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Week 12A \u2014 DAL vs. WASH or MIA (road team) at NYJ<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Week 12B \u2014\u00a0 MIN vs. CHI<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Week 13 \u2014 PIT vs. ARZ<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Week 14 \u2014 NOR vs. CAR<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Week 15 \u2014 CLE vs. CHI<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Week 16A \u2014 3 toss up games\u2026.going to be problematic<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Week 16B \u2014 GB (road team) at CAR<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Week 17 \u2014 PHI vs. ARZ<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Week 18 \u2014 NWE vs. NYJ (but could be someone unusual because of \u201cmeaningless\u201d final games)<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Note: Even if you can\u2019t afford the $1,000 entry fee next season, I advise NFL bettors who want to improve their handicapping skills and learn more about contest strategy to make picks and play, even if it\u2019s just for fun.<\/b><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">WEEKLY SUMMATION<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The 2023 Circa Survivor contest cost $1,000 per entry.\u00a0 There were 9,267 initial entries.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">After just 8 weeks \u2013 which is 40 percent of the 20 \u201cweekly\u201d segments of the contest which runs for the duration of the NFL regular season \u2013 there are only 1,198 live entries remaining.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Circa Survivor offers a winner-take-all prize of $9,267,000.\u00a0 The implied value per entry is now up to $7,735.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IS THIS THE TOUGHEST WEEK IN THE CIRCA SURVIVOR CONTEST? &nbsp; SAINTS AND BROWNS EXPECTED TO BE CO-CONSENSUS CONTEST FAVORITES\u00a0 &nbsp; Last week was the most uneventful of the 2023 Circa Survivor contest, so far.\u00a0 Out of 1,234 contestants who went into Week 8 still alive, only 36 were eliminated.\u00a0 That now leaves 1,198 survivors [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":230728,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,40,43,8,9],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>2023 CIRCA SURVIVOR \u2013 WEEK 8 REVIEW \/ WEEK 9 PREVIEW - Survivor Sweat<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-8-review-week-9-preview\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2023 CIRCA SURVIVOR \u2013 WEEK 8 REVIEW \/ WEEK 9 PREVIEW - Survivor Sweat\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"IS THIS THE TOUGHEST WEEK IN THE CIRCA SURVIVOR CONTEST? 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