# Unique teams:<\/strong>\u00a0If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\nWe are now in week 10 of the season.\u00a0 The future value of teams becomes less critical as the future is now.\u00a0 But we still want to look out a few weeks, depending on the pool size, to make sure we are picking teams optimally.\u00a0 First, let’s look at the spreadsheet for Future Values 0, 50, and 100.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/wk10survivorfv0.jpg\")
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![\"\"](\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/wk10survivorfv50.jpg\")
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![\"\"](\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/wk10survivorfv100.jpg\")
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When we look at no future value the teams with the greatest chance to win are always the best plays.\u00a0 This week, the obvious play is Dallas.\u00a0 They have a 91% chance to beat the Giants.\u00a0 You will not get a better probability all season.\u00a0 If you were able to get to this point without picking Dallas, then now is the time.\u00a0 You may wonder why we would have been looking to fade the popular pick in other weeks, but this week, we are backing them.\u00a0 The reason is the high probability of a Dallas win coupled with the fact that we have another team that has a very high pick %.\u00a0 That team is Cincinnati.\u00a0 When we make the contrarian play, we do not want the pool’s risk spread amongst several teams.\u00a0 We want it as focused as possible. If you were the only one in your pool who picked a team with a 75% chance to win while the rest of your pool all picked a team with an 80% chance to win.\u00a0 You should be excited.\u00a0 You are more likely to lose than your opponents, but they have no chance to win the pool this week, and you do.\u00a0 This scenario doesn’t play out typically until we get down to a few entries left, but this extreme example should shed light on why we want to fade teams that are being taken by large numbers in the pool.\u00a0 This week, you won’t be able to win the pool with Dallas, but you are in a position where you can advance while knocking out 30-40% of your competitors.<\/p>\n
For those of you who can not take Dallas this week, you will have a decision to make.\u00a0 Buffalo would undoubtedly be the next choice, but it is unlikely you have them at your disposal.\u00a0 If you do not then I much prefer Seattle over Cincinnati.\u00a0 The reason is what I just wrote about.\u00a0 You are fading Cincinnati with a team with a similar chance of winning and little future value.\u00a0 Just think if there were no Dallas this week and everyone in your pool had Cincinnati, and you were the sole Seattle.\u00a0 It’s an excellent position to be in, regardless of the outcome.\u00a0 Cincinnati also has some terrific matchups in the near future.\u00a0 Week 12 home for Pittsburgh, Week 14 home for Indianapolis, Week 15 home for Minnesota.\u00a0 Seattle, on the other hand, will never be as big a favorite as they are this week.<\/p>\n
There are some other options, like Baltimore, but it is unlikely you still have them to pick from.\u00a0 When we move to 100% future value Chicago pops as a team to consider.\u00a0 Because FV becomes less critical at this point in the season we can achieve the same thing by taking a team with a higher probability of winning than Chicago has.\u00a0 If you are out of options or in a pool that is guaranteed to make it to week 18 they are a team you could consider, as they have little value in future weeks.<\/p>\n
In all formats, Dallas is worth taking if you have them.\u00a0 If not, you must use some game theory and avoid Cincinnati.<\/p>\n
Ultimately, you have to decide how you will play your pool.<\/p>\n
Hopefully, you will be around for many weeks with me as we try and survive!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
We had another tame week in NFL Survivor Pool World last week.\u00a0 The Falcons and Patriots were possibly teams you took a shot at trying to fade the chalky Saints and Browns.\u00a0 I did not think that was a bad play as I did it in one of my two entries I had left in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":230765,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,52,8,9],"tags":[48,53],"yoast_head":"\n
Week 10 of Circa Survivor - Survivor Sweat<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2023\/week-10-of-circa-survivor\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Week 10 of Circa Survivor - Survivor Sweat\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We had another tame week in NFL Survivor Pool World last week.\u00a0 The Falcons and Patriots were possibly teams you took a shot at trying to fade the chalky Saints and Browns.\u00a0 I did not think that was a bad play as I did it in one of my two entries I had left in […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2023\/week-10-of-circa-survivor\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Survivor Sweat\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-11-08T17:23:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/GettyImages-1777184311.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Survivor Sweat Staff\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Survivor Sweat Staff\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2023\/week-10-of-circa-survivor\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2023\/week-10-of-circa-survivor\/\",\"name\":\"Week 10 of Circa Survivor - Survivor Sweat\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2023\/week-10-of-circa-survivor\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2023\/week-10-of-circa-survivor\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/GettyImages-1777184311.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-11-08T17:23:05+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-11-08T17:23:05+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/#\/schema\/person\/794c9e7201256e634b807ecf74fd2236\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2023\/week-10-of-circa-survivor\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2023\/week-10-of-circa-survivor\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2023\/week-10-of-circa-survivor\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/GettyImages-1777184311.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/GettyImages-1777184311.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - NOVEMBER 05: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys looks on during the second half against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on November 05, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. 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