{"id":230950,"date":"2023-11-24T12:04:21","date_gmt":"2023-11-24T20:04:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/?p=230950"},"modified":"2023-11-24T12:04:21","modified_gmt":"2023-11-24T20:04:21","slug":"2023-circa-survivor-week-12-a-review-week-12-b-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-12-a-review-week-12-b-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"2023 CIRCA SURVIVOR \u2013 WEEK 12-A REVIEW \/ WEEK 12-B PREVIEW"},"content":{"rendered":"

PACKERS THANKSGIVING DAY UPSET OF LIONS LEAVES ONLY 154 SURVIVORS — CONTESTANTS FACE TOUGHER CHOICES LOOKING AT GAMES AHEAD<\/span><\/h3>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

This week’s report is being posted immediately after the conclusion of the Week 12-A games, and just prior to the dozen Week 12-B games, which comprises the usual NFL schedule played on Sunday and Monday.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Recall that this year’s Circa Survivor contest carved out two <\/span>special <\/span><\/i>weeks during the NFL regular season, independent from the usual slate of weekly games.\u00a0 The two special weeks are 12-A (this week) and 16-A (in December).\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The four 12-A games were played on Thursday (3) and Friday (1) — Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, respectively.\u00a0 Obviously, with far fewer games to choose from and such limited options, advance preparations and survivor contest strategy played a critical role in who survives, and who did not.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Then, there’s the unpredictability factor.\u00a0 We never know when the so-called killer upset will happen.\u00a0 Well, it happened — on Thanksgiving Day.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Oh, the irony.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

WEEK 12-A REVIEW<\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

Coming out of Week 11, for those still in the Circa Survivor contest, Thanksgiving Day was either a reason to be thankful, or a real turkey, depending on if you were one of the lucky survivors.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Green Bay’s shocking upset of the Detroit Lions resulted in a whopping 216 eliminations.\u00a0 That figure constituted 58.1 percent of the field, which is the highest percentage of contestants to be eliminated on any single team and game so far this season.\u00a0 So, what happened?\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Riding their best regular season start in 60 years, the 8-2 Lions were flying high and seemed like a safe pick for Week 12-A.\u00a0 Playing against the rival 4-6 Packers, Detroit was favored by 7.5 points.\u00a0 There were 216 contestants on the Lions.\u00a0 Final Score:\u00a0 Green Bay 29, Detroit 22.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

What a shocker.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The limited 12-A schedule presented contestants with four potential blowouts.\u00a0 All four favorites were laying a touchdown or greater:\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Detroit -7.5 vs. Green Bay<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Dallas -12.5 vs. Washington<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

San Francisco -7 vs. Seattle<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Miami -9.5 vs. NY Jets<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Contrast this with the slate of games played in Week 12-B, with no clear favorites and an overwhelming number of possible coin-flip outcomes (scroll down below to the \u201cpreview\u201d section for a discussion of these games and the contrast this presents for survivors).<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Detroit Lions as the overwhelming contest consensus was quite predictable.\u00a0 It was very likely the result of so few other options.\u00a0 Though we don’t have data on precisely how many of these contestants had already used up the other big favorites — Dallas, San Francisco, and Miami — in previous weeks, we can agree that an empty basket of available choices was the main determining factor behind selecting the Lions.\u00a0 Moreover, Detroit appeared to be the smart pick by virtue of their record and the pointspread.\u00a0 In short, they had no choice but to pick Detroit.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

What I found most interesting about the Week 12-A selections was the fact that 12 contestants picked the Packers.\u00a0 Those dozen picks now look like a work of genius.\u00a0 Presumably, these contestants saw something in the Packers that the betting market was missing and\/or simply made a bold and calculated decision that if Green Bay somehow pulled off the upset, that would then catapult the lucky survivors into a much smaller field.\u00a0 The risk paid off.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

I\u2019ll go out on a limb here and say that whoever wins the contest, will be one of the \u201cPacker dozen.\u201d\u00a0 Making Green Bay the pick took guts, and that\u2019s what it takes to win Circa Survivor.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

WEEK 12-B PREVIEW<\/span><\/h3>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This will be the most interesting week of the season.\u00a0 Let me explain why.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Twelve NFL games are scheduled in the next segment of the Circa Survivor Contest, which are all played on Sunday and Monday.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

First, let\u2019s address the obvious.\u00a0 Only one game appears to be a mismatch based on the pointspread.\u00a0 That\u2019s Kansas City playing at Las Vegas.\u00a0 The Chiefs are favored by -8.5.\u00a0 The question is \u2013 <\/span>how many contestants still have Kansas City as an option? <\/span><\/i>\u00a0My guess is, <\/span>very few.\u00a0 <\/span><\/i>So, don\u2019t look for Kansas City to be the consensus pick, which would otherwise be the most popular selection.\u00a0 The Chiefs playing on the road and in a division rivalry could also dissuade a few contestants, for the few that have them as an option.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Accordingly, that leaves remaining contestants with the following menu of team selections:<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Jacksonville -1.5 vs. Houston<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Indianapolis -2.5 vs. Tampa Bay<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

New England -3.5 vs. NY Giants<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Tennessee -3.5 vs. Carolina<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Pittsburgh -1.5 vs. Cincinnati<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

New Orleans -1.5 vs. Atlanta<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

LA Rams -1.5 vs. Arizona<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Denver -1.5 vs. Cleveland<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Philadelphia -3 vs. Buffalo<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Baltimore -3 vs. LA Chargers<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Minnesota -3 vs. Chicago<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

This is a brutal lineup to choose from.\u00a0 Nothing stands out as an obvious pick.\u00a0 Even though points do not matter in the contest, for those inclined to be influenced by the higher pointspreads, do remaining contest survivors really want to place their fates on teams like the Patriots or the Titans, both of which are favored by -3.5?<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

We can also presume many contestants have used up Baltimore and Philadelphia, and perhaps even Minnesota.\u00a0 This will force survivors to make selections among several coin-flip games.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

I predict a scatter effect in Week 12-B.\u00a0 We\u2019ll see a broader distribution of choices, rather than a concentration of obvious teams attracting support.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

By the conclusion of this week, expect the Circa Survivor contest to be under 100 for the first time.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

SUMMATION<\/span><\/h3>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The 2023 Circa Survivor contest cost $1,000 per entry.\u00a0 There were 9,267 initial entries.\u00a0 After 12 weeks, there are only 154 live entries remaining.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Circa Survivor offers a winner-take-all prize of $9,267,000.\u00a0 The implied value per entry is now up to $60,175. <\/span>(Note: This data does not reflect results of the final 12-A game, Miami at NY Jets).<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

For the latest updates, be sure to follow @SurvivorSweat on Twitter \/ X.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Also, be advised that active Circa Survivor entries may be for sale on this site at the marketplace.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

PACKERS THANKSGIVING DAY UPSET OF LIONS LEAVES ONLY 154 SURVIVORS — CONTESTANTS FACE TOUGHER CHOICES LOOKING AT GAMES AHEAD \u00a0   This week’s report is being posted immediately after the conclusion of the Week 12-A games, and just prior to the dozen Week 12-B games, which comprises the usual NFL schedule played on Sunday and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":230951,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,43,8],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n2023 CIRCA SURVIVOR \u2013 WEEK 12-A REVIEW \/ WEEK 12-B PREVIEW - Survivor Sweat<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nolan Dalla returns for Week 12 of the NFL season and gives us his thoughts connecting it to the Circa Survivor contest.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-12-a-review-week-12-b-preview\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2023 CIRCA SURVIVOR \u2013 WEEK 12-A REVIEW \/ WEEK 12-B PREVIEW - Survivor Sweat\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nolan Dalla returns for Week 12 of the NFL season and gives us his thoughts connecting it to the Circa Survivor contest.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-12-a-review-week-12-b-preview\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Survivor Sweat\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-11-24T20:04:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/GettyImages-1810056547.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Survivor Sweat Staff\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Survivor Sweat Staff\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-12-a-review-week-12-b-preview\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-12-a-review-week-12-b-preview\/\",\"name\":\"2023 CIRCA SURVIVOR \u2013 WEEK 12-A REVIEW \/ WEEK 12-B PREVIEW - Survivor Sweat\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-12-a-review-week-12-b-preview\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-12-a-review-week-12-b-preview\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/GettyImages-1810056547.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-11-24T20:04:21+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-11-24T20:04:21+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/#\/schema\/person\/794c9e7201256e634b807ecf74fd2236\"},\"description\":\"Nolan Dalla returns for Week 12 of the NFL season and gives us his thoughts connecting it to the Circa Survivor contest.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-12-a-review-week-12-b-preview\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-12-a-review-week-12-b-preview\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-12-a-review-week-12-b-preview\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/GettyImages-1810056547.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/GettyImages-1810056547.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"DETROIT, MICHIGAN - NOVEMBER 23: Tracy Walker III #21 and Aidan Hutchinson #97 of the Detroit Lions pressure Jordan Love #10 of the Green Bay Packers during the fourth quarter of the game at Ford Field on November 23, 2023 in Detroit, Michigan. 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