{"id":231017,"date":"2023-11-30T16:50:10","date_gmt":"2023-12-01T00:50:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/?p=231017"},"modified":"2023-11-30T20:52:39","modified_gmt":"2023-12-01T04:52:39","slug":"2023-circa-survivor-week-12-a-b-review-week-13-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2023\/2023-circa-survivor-week-12-a-b-review-week-13-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"2023 CIRCA SURVIVOR \u2013 WEEK 12-A\/B REVIEW \/ WEEK 13 PREVIEW"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">AFTER A WILD NFL WEEK AND TWO SIGNIFICANT UPSETS, CIRCA SURVIVOR CONTEST NOW DOWN TO 80 PLAYERS<\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This week\u2019s report is posted at the conclusion of the Week 12-A and 12-B games, and just prior to the Week 13 games, which comprises the usual NFL schedule played on Thursday, Sunday and Monday.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><b>WEEKS 12-A AND 12-B REVIEW<\/b><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Recall that the four 12-A games were played last Thursday (3) and Friday (1) \u2014 Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, respectively.\u00a0 Obviously, with far fewer games to choose from and such limited options, advance preparations and survivor contest strategy played a critical role in who survived, and who did not.\u00a0 Green Bay beating Detroit was the most meaningful upset.\u00a0 That killed off 216 entries, which sliced a whopping 58.1 percent of the field down to less than half of its prior size.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The upset gods weren&#8217;t finished teasing the remaining survivors.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Last Sunday and Monday resulted in another wipe out, as 55.1 percent of the remaining field went down on two significant upsets &#8212; the NY Giants beating New England, and Chicago defeating Minnesota.\u00a0 Both games went down to the final seconds and were decided by late field goal attempts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So now, the 2023 Circa Survivor contest is down to the final 80 entries.\u00a0 Congratulations to those who made it this far.\u00a0 Based on equity shares of the grand total $9,267,000 winner-take-all prize pool, each surviving ticket is worth \u2013 hang on, get ready, drum roll please\u2026\u2026.$115,837.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">After a dozen weeks, the finalists can now see the light at the end of the tunnel.\u00a0 However, tunnel vision can be deceptive.\u00a0 For most of the 80 dreamers, the beam of light and ray of hope is an oncoming locomotive of defeat and disappointment.\u00a0 However, someone in this crowd is about to win one of the biggest prizes in sports gambling history.\u00a0 Moreover, just the fact these survivors made it this far is an accomplishment to be proud of.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let&#8217;s see what happens, have some fun, ride along with them, and enjoy the show!<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><b>WHO\u2019S STILL IN?<\/b><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Keeping track of the Circa Survivors isn\u2019t easy.\u00a0 The best way to keep track of the field and who\u2019s in and who\u2019s out is to follow along on social media.\u00a0 Twitter X is a decent place to start.\u00a0 I suggest you follow @CircaSports (the official Circa sportsbook account) and follow @SurvivorSweat (thats us).\u00a0 We offer options and advice.\u00a0 Circa doesn\u2019t do that.\u00a0 But hey, if you\u2019re reading this \u2013 follow both.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-231018\" src=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.43.31-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1200\" height=\"1388\" srcset=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.43.31-PM.png 1200w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.43.31-PM-259x300.png 259w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.43.31-PM-885x1024.png 885w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.43.31-PM-768x888.png 768w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.43.31-PM-1080x1249.png 1080w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.43.31-PM-980x1134.png 980w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.43.31-PM-480x555.png 480w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.43.31-PM-600x694.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s give a shout out to Marc Goldberg, who posted this tweet a few days ago.\u00a0 I love that he calls out Pauly Howard (@paulyhoward), who happens to be one of the best and most knowledgeable sports handicapping media personalities around:<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Last year\u2019s co-champions went bust.\u00a0 Oh well, they\u2019re still millions ahead.\u00a0 Fortunately, both Mike Buchmiller and Russell Rosenblum share their thoughts and advice in a weekly podcast, exclusively here at Survivor Sweat.\u00a0 Even if you\u2019re not alive in the contest, they provide lots of solid NFL handicapping advice.\u00a0 Follow them here: @MBuchmiller and @rosenblumr.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As for me, I went bust in Week 5.\u00a0 Stupid me, for going with the Washington Commanders.\u00a0 Still, it\u2019s not all bad.\u00a0 I just won $25,000 in the Westgate SuperContest (mini-week competition) after last week\u2019s results, and am still alive and in great shape in that NFL handicapping contest, so this soothes some disappointment.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-231019\" src=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.44.55-PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1306\" height=\"604\" srcset=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.44.55-PM.png 1306w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.44.55-PM-300x139.png 300w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.44.55-PM-1024x474.png 1024w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.44.55-PM-768x355.png 768w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.44.55-PM-1080x499.png 1080w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.44.55-PM-1280x592.png 1280w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.44.55-PM-980x453.png 980w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.44.55-PM-480x222.png 480w, https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-30-at-4.44.55-PM-600x277.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1306px) 100vw, 1306px\" \/><\/h3>\n<p><b>WEEK 13 PREVIEW<\/b><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Okay now, let\u2019s get to NFL Week 13.\u00a0 Lucky 13, right?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We\u2019ll see.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When we try to predict which teams will be the most popular picks in the Circa Survivor contest, there are two main factors to consider.\u00a0 First, which teams are still available to the contestants?\u00a0 Second, what are the perceptions of the remaining pool of teams and what&#8217;s their likelihood of winning the upcoming games outright?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We don&#8217;t know the first part of this equation.\u00a0 For the purposes of answering the second part, a great place to start are the pointspreads.\u00a0 Week 13 shows us that the Dallas Cowboys are one of the biggest favorites, laying -9.5 on Thursday night.\u00a0 The Miami Dolphins are also big favorites, laying -9.5.\u00a0 The Jacksonville Jaguars are right there among the top three, at -8.5.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Accordingly, we can make a reasonable summation that Dallas and Miami have probably already been used up by the survivors.\u00a0 That leaves Jacksonville as a very live pick &#8212; assuming that&#8217;s an option.\u00a0 I expect it will be an option for many of those 80 contenders.\u00a0 Indeed, I expect that a sizable percentage &#8212; perhaps at least half (40) &#8212; could be riding the Jaguars on Monday Night Football as their big favorites hosting the Cincinnati Bengals, which should be noted are significantly weaker without All-Pro QB Joe Burrow and are now starting a rookie.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There could also be some contest love for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home who are hosting the awful Carolina Panthers, which just fired their head coach.\u00a0 Tampa Bay is laying -5.5<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Finally, the Pittsburgh Steelers could also garner a bit of contest support since they&#8217;re hosting the disrespected Arizona Cardinals.\u00a0 It&#8217;s hard to fathom much support going to the scraps of teams elsewhere, unless there are some outlier tickets and gutsy players determined to take a long shot flier on one of the more risky teams, founded entirely on the hope that the rest of the betting card blows up with lots of upsets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It seems very clear the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to be the consensus pick this week.\u00a0 So far, through 12 weeks, I&#8217;ve correctly nailed 11 of the consensus teams &#8212; missing just one week with what is expected to be the top choice.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><b>SURVIVOR SUMMATION<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The fourth annual 2023 Circa Survivor contest cost $1,000 per entry.\u00a0 There were 9,267 initial entries, back as of early September.\u00a0 After 12 weeks (actually 13 segments) nearing the end of November, there are only 80 live entries remaining.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This year&#8217;s Circa Survivor offers a winner-take-all prize of $9,267,000.\u00a0 The implied value per entry is now up to $115,827.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For the latest contest updates and survivor strategy tips, be sure to follow @SurvivorSweat on Twitter \/ X.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Also, be advised that active Circa Survivor entries are for sale on this site at the marketplace.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AFTER A WILD NFL WEEK AND TWO SIGNIFICANT UPSETS, CIRCA SURVIVOR CONTEST NOW DOWN TO 80 PLAYERS &nbsp; This week\u2019s report is posted at the conclusion of the Week 12-A and 12-B games, and just prior to the Week 13 games, which comprises the usual NFL schedule played on Thursday, Sunday and Monday. &nbsp; WEEKS [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":231020,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,43,8,9],"tags":[48,49],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>2023 CIRCA SURVIVOR \u2013 WEEK 12-A\/B REVIEW \/ WEEK 13 PREVIEW - Survivor Sweat<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nolan Dalla returns with another NFL recap and preview of the upcoming games and how they connect to the Circa Survivor contest in Las Vegas.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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NOVEMBER 26: Trevor Lawrence #16 and Tank Bigsby #4 of the Jacksonville Jaguars celebrate a rushing touchdown during the second quarter of a game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on November 26, 2023 in Houston, Texas. 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