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<\/p>\nWith just two weeks left in the regular season most pools are either finished or down to very few remaining players.\u00a0 In Circa there are 4 entries remaining.\u00a0 I thought it would be good to look at that pool and see if you can use some of that analysis in your pool.<\/p>\n
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![\"\"](\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/circa-remaining.png\")
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The total pot is $9,267,000.\u00a0 If we do not factor in the teams available to each participant, the equity for each is $2,316,750.\u00a0 Upon a closer look, we see Circus Master has an advantage this week because he can take Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite while the best his opponents can take is Denver as a 5.5-point favorite.\u00a0 This translates into a 76% chance Cleveland wins their game and a 68.5% chance Denver wins its game.<\/p>\n
If Circus Master takes Cleveland and his opponents all take Denver, the probability of him winning the pool this week is 76% * 31.5% = 23.9%.<\/p>\n
The only other entrant who can guarantee themselves the possibility of winning the pool on their own this week is Jax Jags if we assume Circus does not take Chicago.\u00a0 If Jax Jags goes with Chicago and CIrcus takes Cleveland while the other two take Denver the math looks like this for Jax Jags.<\/p>\n
Probability of Chicago winning = 59.6%
\nProbability of Cleveland losing = 24%
\nProbability of Denver losing = 31.5%<\/p>\n
Multiply all of these together and you get a 4.5% chance Jax Jags can scoop this week with a pick on Chicago.<\/p>\n
What would you do in each of these player’s shoes?<\/p>\n
Circus Master has to take the shot with the best team on the board this week.\u00a0 He has a legitimate chance of taking down the entire pot this week.\u00a0 If a deal were discussed, he would be wise to negotiate a larger share for himself than the others.\u00a0 In Circa, deals can be cut, but they happen outside the pool.\u00a0 The pool itself must be seen to its completion.\u00a0 If no deal is agreed upon this week, then the edge becomes minimal next week, as they will all be on similar teams.\u00a0 Circus has to take Cleveland this week and give himself a shot to win it all.\u00a0 I think he has the easiest decision in the pool.\u00a0 If you find yourself in a spot where you are the only one who can take a team in your pool, and they have a higher probability of winning than the available teams of your opponents, then you have to take them.\u00a0 As the probability lowers, so does your chance of a scoop.\u00a0 If you know all of your opponents will be on a team like Denver then you will have an advantage by moving off Denver and taking a weaker team.\u00a0 If someone picks a team other than Denver, it makes your pivot much weaker and likely a negative EV play.<\/p>\n
Indiana Jet and LAJonesr will almost certainly want to take Denver.\u00a0 They do not have a great leverage play because getting off of Denver may get them on a team nobody else is on, but it will take multiple teams losing along with their team winning in order to ship it this week.\u00a0 The more prudent play for them will be to go with the most likely team they have left, which is Denver, and hope others try to be cute and get off of Denver.<\/p>\n
We did the math on the probability of Jax Jags scooping this week if they take Chicago.\u00a0 Let’s figure out the EV based on the numbers we talked about earlier.<\/p>\n
We will assume Circus takes Cleveland with Indiana and LA on Denver.<\/p>\n
Cleveland wins Denver wins Chicago wins = 31%
\nCleveland wins Denver loses Chicago loses = 9.7%
\nCleveland wins Denver wins Chicago loses = 21.1%
\nCleveland wins Denver loses Chicago wins = 14.2%
\nCleveland loses Denver wins Chicago wins = 9.7%
\nCleveland loses Denver loses Chicago loses = 3%
\nCleveland loses Denver wins Chicago loses = 6.7%
\nCleveland loses Denver loses Chicago wins = 4.5%<\/p>\n
The EV based on on our assumptions for Jax Jags if he goes with Chicago is $2,161,233.\u00a0 This is calculated by multiplying the probability in each scenario with the monetary result.\u00a0 For example there is a 31% chance that all 3 win.\u00a0 This would give you the same equity as you have now which is $2,316,750.\u00a0 You multiply that by the 31% then add up the value for each scenario.<\/p>\n
If they decide to join the other 2 on Denver then the EV calc becomes<\/p>\n
Cleveland wins Denver Wins 52%
\nCleveland loses Denver wins 24%
\nCleveland wins Denver loses 16.4%
\nCleveland loses Denver loses 7.6%<\/p>\n
The EV for Jax Jags taking Denver drops to $1,888,077 if the other 2 also take Denver.\u00a0 This is obviously the same EV for the other two so if they knew the other were going to take Denver then they would be wise to get off of Denver.\u00a0 Obviously, this is impossible to know for sure, and how you hedge, as well as how much you are capable of hedging, will play into the equation.<\/p>\n
I just wanted to show you guys how to calculate your EV in each scenario for your pool to see what may be the best plan of attack.<\/p>\n
Best of luck this week.\u00a0 Let’s hope for a prosperous new year!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
With just two weeks left in the regular season most pools are either finished or down to very few remaining players.\u00a0 In Circa there are 4 entries remaining.\u00a0 I thought it would be good to look at that pool and see if you can use some of that analysis in your pool. The total pot […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":231139,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,52,8,9],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n