{"id":231144,"date":"2024-01-04T10:10:58","date_gmt":"2024-01-04T18:10:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/?p=231144"},"modified":"2024-01-04T10:17:47","modified_gmt":"2024-01-04T18:17:47","slug":"circa-survivor-week-18-the-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/article\/2024\/circa-survivor-week-18-the-end\/","title":{"rendered":"Circa Survivor – Week 18: The End"},"content":{"rendered":"

We have reached the end of the 2023-24 regular season. First, thank you all for following this article each week.\u00a0 I had a lot of fun breaking the week’s games down for you.\u00a0 I hope you took something away from these articles for future pools.\u00a0 I always learn when I write these.\u00a0 It makes me a better player.<\/p>\n

Last week, we went over the likely scenarios for the largest legal Survivor pool, and that is Circa.\u00a0 Things did not go as I had anticipated largely because the Chargers caught steam, and the line for the Broncos moved to -3.5 by lock, the same as the other two teams chosen.<\/p>\n

\n

Circus Master took the Browns as expected.\u00a0 He was the only one able to take the biggest favorite available in the pool.\u00a0 I am sure he did not think too hard about that choice.\u00a0 The others had more challenging decisions.<\/p>\n

IndianaJet, JAX JAGS, and LAJONESER were all looking at a very similar situation.\u00a0 When the picks needed to be in, they each had the same three teams as their largest favorite to choose from.\u00a0 Denver, Houston, and Indianapolis.\u00a0 Amazingly, they each chose a different team.\u00a0 IndianaJet wound up in the best spot of the 3 as the Texans moved to a -5 favorite at game time.<\/p>\n

As the math showed us last week, being on different teams with the same chance of winning was good news for all of them.\u00a0 It was terrible news for Circus as he significantly lowered his chances of winning the pool that week.\u00a0 As it turned out, all 4 were on different teams, and all four advanced.\u00a0 That was a long shot to happen, but it did.<\/p>\n

They could have done this intentionally if they cut a side deal to split the pot four ways.\u00a0 There is a rumor that that has happened, but it is unclear when the agreement was made.\u00a0 As stated last week, Circus was in a favorable spot, and an even split did not serve him well.<\/p>\n

If we did not have a split going into this week, how should these players play it?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n
\"\"<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
The probabilities for each favorite available are currently:<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Cincinnati – 69.9%
\nGreen Bay – 60.3%
\nNew Orleans – 61.1%
\nLas Vegas – 57.2%
\nNew England – 55.8%
\nHouston – 53.3%
\nDetroit – 60.2%
\nLA Chargers – 58.6%<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\n

From the probabilities, the Bengals seem to be the obvious choice.\u00a0 Each player has 25% of the $9,267,000 prize pool in equity, which is $2,316,750.\u00a0 If they all take the same team, then we know the equity stays the same.\u00a0 That could be a likely scenario if they were not taking a split.\u00a0 New Orleans, Green Bay, and Detroit all have similar win probabilities at the time of this writing.\u00a0 Would it be beneficial for one of these players to get off of Cincinnati and onto one of these teams?Let’s use LAJONESER for this example, as he is the only player who can\u00a0take Detroit.\u00a0 If he were to take Detroit and be up against 3 Cincinnati picks, does his EV increase?<\/p>\n

The calculation is not difficult.<\/p>\n

Multiply the probability of each event happening to find out what the probability of each scenario will be.
\nThe four possible scenarios are as follows.<\/p>\n

Cincinnati Wins & Detroit Wins = 69.9% * 60.2% = 42.1%
\nCincinnati Wins & Detroit Loses = 69.9% * 39.8% = 27.8%
\nCincinnati Loses & Detroit Wins = 30.1% * 60.2% = 18.1%
\nCincinnati Loses & Detroit Loses = 30.1% * 39.8% = 12%<\/p>\n

If you did the calculations correctly, it will add up to 100%<\/p>\n

To calculate the EV, we simply multiply how much you will make or lose in each scenario and then add them up.<\/p>\n

Cin W & Det W = 42.1% * $2,316,750
\nCin W & Det L = 27.8% * -$1000 (entry fee lost)
\nCin L & Det W = 18.1% * $9,267,000
\nCin L & Det L = 12% * $2,316,750<\/p>\n

This gives us an EV of $2,930,410.75.\u00a0 So the play, if we knew everyone else was going to be on Cincinnati, would be to take Detroit.<\/p>\n

The key is to be the only one on a team IF the rest of the pool is on the same team AND there is more than one opponent.\u00a0 If you are in a heads-up situation in your pool right now, you are blindly taking the largest favorite and hoping your opponent tries to get cute and take a lesser team.\u00a0 When you move to three people left in your pool, you would benefit from being a solo entry if the other two were on the same side.\u00a0 But they may also know that, and perhaps one will take the team you take.\u00a0 In which case, you gave player three the advantage you were trying to get, and they may be on the best team that week.\u00a0 The fewer left in your pool, the more you will want to err on taking the chalkiest pick.<\/p>\n

The math is the math, but we do not play the game in a vacuum.\u00a0 It can be nearly impossible to predict what your opponents will do.\u00a0 These pools become a sort of Prisoner dilemma game.\u00a0 There are many ways to play the game, but ultimately, cooperating is the best long-term strategy.\u00a0 You have the option to cooperate by taking a deal, hedging your picks, or a combination of the two.\u00a0 This will be the best strategy in the long term, even though you are sacrificing a chance at the bigger payday.<\/p>\n

Whatever you decide to do, congratulations if you are still alive.\u00a0 Thanks again for following this article.\u00a0 You can catch me on X\u00a0@statsational.<\/p>\n

Best of Luck in 2024!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We have reached the end of the 2023-24 regular season. First, thank you all for following this article each week.\u00a0 I had a lot of fun breaking the week’s games down for you.\u00a0 I hope you took something away from these articles for future pools.\u00a0 I always learn when I write these.\u00a0 It makes me […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":231146,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,52,8,9],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nCirca Survivor - Week 18: The End - Survivor Sweat<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2024\/circa-survivor-week-18-the-end\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Circa Survivor - Week 18: The End - Survivor Sweat\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We have reached the end of the 2023-24 regular season. First, thank you all for following this article each week.\u00a0 I had a lot of fun breaking the week’s games down for you.\u00a0 I hope you took something away from these articles for future pools.\u00a0 I always learn when I write these.\u00a0 It makes me […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2024\/circa-survivor-week-18-the-end\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Survivor Sweat\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-01-04T18:10:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-01-04T18:17:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/GettyImages-1898257587.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"682\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Survivor Sweat Staff\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Survivor Sweat Staff\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2024\/circa-survivor-week-18-the-end\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2024\/circa-survivor-week-18-the-end\/\",\"name\":\"Circa Survivor - Week 18: The End - Survivor Sweat\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2024\/circa-survivor-week-18-the-end\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2024\/circa-survivor-week-18-the-end\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/GettyImages-1898257587.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-01-04T18:10:58+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-01-04T18:17:47+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/#\/schema\/person\/794c9e7201256e634b807ecf74fd2236\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2024\/circa-survivor-week-18-the-end\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2024\/circa-survivor-week-18-the-end\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/article\/2024\/circa-survivor-week-18-the-end\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/GettyImages-1898257587.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/survivorsweat.com\/content\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/GettyImages-1898257587.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":682,\"caption\":\"KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - DECEMBER 31: Jake Browning #6 of the Cincinnati Bengals is sacked by Charles Omenihu #90 of the Kansas City Chiefs during the fourth quarter at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. 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